Underdogs, by any measure

By Jeff Haney

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2009 | 2 a.m.

The dominant story line of Sunday’s Super Bowl revolves around the unlikely appearance of the Arizona Cardinals in pro football’s championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are widely viewed as a more suitable competitor.

Just how big an underdog tale the NFC champs are, however, as so often happens in sports betting, depends on how you measure it.

When the odds to win the 43rd Super Bowl were posted last spring, for example, Arizona was listed as a 50-1 shot at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book. Only eight NFL teams had higher prices attached to them.

Elsewhere in Las Vegas, the Cardinals could be found at preseason odds of 40-1 or even lower.

Oddly, the odds on the Cardinals were also set at 50-1 at the beginning of the playoffs, after Arizona had survived the regular season, winning the NFC West with a record of 9-7. Those odds didn’t indicate any nefarious activity, or an attempt to mock bettors who placed a wager on Arizona at lesser odds earlier in the season, or anything of the sort. It’s just that the Cardinals were seen as the worst of the playoff bunch. It didn’t help that they were representing the division that had the worst combined win-loss record in the league.

Before the regular season, in fact, the odds that the NFC West would produce the Super Bowl winner were 20-1 at the Lucky’s sports book group. That placed the division in a tie with the NFC South (which ended up sending Carolina to the playoffs) as the longest shot on the board.

In a similar proposition, Lucky’s offered odds on the “region” to win the Super Bowl (actually, they call it the “2009 pro football championship game,” but we call it the Super Bowl) and the “North” — home of the Steelers — was the longest shot of the four choices at 5-1. The prospects of the North, even with the presence of the Steelers and the Ravens, were hampered by a couple of terrible Ohio teams and an NFC North division that has fallen on hard times.

Despite those handicaps, bettors who had a hunch on Arizona at the beginning of the playoffs would have turned a bigger profit betting the Cardinals on the money line in each of their postseason games.

Playing the Cardinals on the money line as a short favorite against Atlanta, as a 10-point underdog against Carolina and as a 3 1/2-point underdog against Philadelphia would have yielded a payoff of about 22 1/2-1 rolling over the winnings each time. (A money line wager is on the outright winner of the game regardless of the point spread.)

Placing those hypothetical winnings on Arizona in the Super Bowl at plus 210, a money line currently available in Las Vegas, would yield a payout of a little better than 70-1.

Still, Arizona has not generated much respect with its surge through the playoffs. While the Steelers, a 7-point favorite in the big game, would be favored by at least a field goal in a matchup with any NFL team, Arizona would be an underdog against no fewer than 10 teams, including Pittsburgh.

According to an estimate by Las Vegas betting analyst R.J. Bell of Pregame.com, on a neutral field the Cardinals would also be an underdog against the Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Cowboys, Ravens, Titans, Colts, Patriots and Chargers. And New England and Dallas didn’t even make the playoffs.

Likewise, when the Hilton released its odds to win the 2010 Super Bowl just over two weeks ago, Arizona was a fairly long shot, at least for a Super Bowl participant, at 30-1. Pittsburgh opened at 10-1, the second choice along with the Colts, Giants and Cowboys behind the Patriots, favored at 8-1.

Bettors who have become believers in Arizona, though, will find some attractive prices on a variety of proposition wagers linked to a strong performance by the Cardinals, including these teaser-type offerings at Lucky’s sports books:

• The Cardinals plus 10 1/2 points and under 54 1/2 total points in the game (both must win) at odds of plus 110.

• The Cardinals plus 3 1/2 and under 51 1/2 at odds of plus 400.

On the other side, also available are:

• The Steelers minus 10 1/2 and over 51 1/2 at odds of plus 380.

• The Steelers minus 3 1/2 and under 41 1/2 at odds of plus 260.