Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

ODDS ’N’ ENDS:

Props spice big game betting

In analyzing Super Bowl proposition wagers, or “props,” virtually everyone uses the same set of data, the same set of statistics, as a starting point.

Yet various interpretations of the hard facts and figures can lead to some significant differences of opinion among oddsmakers and bettors alike. Otherwise, there would be much less of a betting frenzy on them.

Of the hundreds of Super Bowl props scheduled to land on Las Vegas betting boards this week leading to the big game Feb. 1, many will be strange or exotic. Others, though, are reliable standards that appear every year, the kind bettors can prepare for ahead of time, such as ...

Team/game props

Will either team score three consecutive times without the other team scoring?

As with other props of this type, the betting line will vary according to the posted over/under on the game, which roughly reflects the projected number of points that will be scored.

The “yes” side was a favorite — and a winner — in both conference championship games Sunday. The line on the “yes” side in the Eagles-Cardinals game was minus 155 (risk $1.55 to net $1), with a price of plus 125 on the “no.” In the AFC title game, correctly projected to have less scoring, the line on “yes” was minus 130, which cashed when the Steelers recorded the first three scores of the game against the Ravens with two field goals and a touchdown.

In last year’s Super Bowl, the “yes” side of the prop was priced at minus 240, in part because the game had a relatively high over/under of 54 points, but the “no” cashed at odds of plus 200 when neither team scored three times in a row. Of course, only 31 points were actually scored in the game — well below the number in the over/under posted on the betting board.

For what it’s worth, the over/under in this year’s Super Bowl stands at 47 — the same number as the over/under in Sunday’s NFC title game.

(As a general rule conversions are excluded and safeties are included, but always read the fine print.)

Will either team score in the final two minutes of first half?

Expect a line exceeding minus 200 on the “yes” side if recent trends are an indication. Last year’s Super Bowl carried a line of minus 280 on “yes,” although the “no” side won at plus 240.

The “yes” was a winner in the Eagles-Cardinals game at minus 240 when Neil Rackers hit a field goal as time expired in the first half. The “yes” lost in the AFC title game at a line of minus 180, a depressed price that reflected a low over/under in the game of 34 points.

The shortest touchdown of the game, over or under 1 1/2 yards.

Again, the line is largely a function of the expected number of touchdowns overall. In last year’s Super Bowl, for example, the under was favored at minus 140 in part because the betting marketplace expected a lot of touchdowns to be scored. The under did win when New England’s Laurence Maroney had a 1-yard touchdown even though the game yielded much less scoring than expected.

On Sunday, the under was a very small favorite in the NFC title game and a slight underdog in the AFC game. Under tickets cashed both times when Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald connected on a 1-yard touchdown pass for Arizona, and Baltimore’s Willis McGahee had a 1-yard touchdown run.

The total number of quarterback sacks by both teams.

In this prop, a perennial favorite in NFL postseason play, “over” bettors cashed tickets in both of Sunday’s games. The line in the NFC title game, which finished with four sacks, was 3 1/2 with a heavy premium on the over. The line was set at over/under 5 in the AFC game, which had seven sacks. The eight sacks in last year’s Super Bowl sent the prop well over the posted total of over/under 4.

Individual player props

Kurt Warner’s pass attempts and passing yards.

Against the Eagles, the Arizona quarterback had mixed results in these separate props. The over/under on his pass attempts was set at 40 1/2, but he finished with only 28. Warner exceeded the over/under of 265 1/2 on his number of passing yards, finishing with 279.

Ben Roethlisberger’s pass attempts and passing yards.

The Steelers quarterback exceeded his posted totals in both categories, attempting 33 passes (the over/under was 30 1/2) for 255 yards (over/under 208 1/2).

Edgerrin James’ rushing yards; Willie Parker’s rushing yards.

The running backs for the Cardinals and Steelers enter the Super Bowl off mixed results in the conference championships. James’ total was set at 49 1/2; he finished with 73. The total on Parker was set higher at 70 1/2, but he finished with only 47.

Larry Fitzgerald’s receiving yards; Hines Ward’s receiving yards.

Arizona’s Fitzgerald easily exceeded his posted total of 96 1/2 with 152 against the Eagles. Ward’s total was set at 66 1/2; he fell short with 55 against the Ravens.

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