A good, long look at … Air Force

By Ryan Greene

Friday, Oct. 17, 2008 | 2:05 a.m.

Each Friday during the 2008 season, the Sun will take an in-depth look at the Rebels' upcoming weekend foe, giving you a crash course on what you need to know, plus what you might not have known already.

A good, long look at ... Air Force (Saturday, 7 p.m. PST, The Mtn.)

The rep ... Consistent, disciplined and old-fashioned. That pretty much sums up what Air Force has done so far this season while getting off to a 4-2 start. The Falcons did the same thing last year in going 9-4 under Troy Calhoun in his first season as coach replacing the legendary Fisher DeBerry.

The same recipe for success that made Air Force 9-4 a year ago and earned the squad a berth in the Armed Forces Bowl is working again this time around. In 2007, 71.3 percent of the Falcons' total yards on offense came via the ground game. So far in 2008, that number has risen to 78.4 percent.

Six Falcons have rushed for at least 100 yards this season, led by Kyle Lumpkin's 371. Senior Shea Smith has taken the brunt of the snaps for Air Force at quarterback this season, while freshman Tim Jefferson has entered the fold in the last three games to spell him some. However, the term 'quarterback' takes on different meaning in Air Force's offense. Smith has attempted just 50 passes this season, and has run the ball 60 times. Jefferson has 14 pass attempts compared to 20 carries.

This week it will be a battle of two teams who shot right out of the gates this season. While UNLV started at 3-1, Air Force began with a 3-0 mark. The only difference is that they had a chance to break a two-game skid with last week's 35-10 win at San Diego State, while the Rebels are still trying to do so.

Last week ... Air Force's two-game losing streak actually stretched to two-and-a-half as the Falcons trailed the lowly Aztecs 10-7 at the break in San Diego.

They ultimately got back on track, though, with 28 unanswered points, and made it a laugher. Freshman Asher Clark got the starting nod at tailback, and responded with 109 yards and a score on 15 carries.

But the most interesting area to watch heading into Saturday based off of last week is at that quarterback spot.

Jefferson started for the Falcons at SDSU and, though he took a bit to get comfortable, looked good overall. He left the game early in the fourth quarter with a concussion, and Smith stepped in, throwing a 32-yard touchdown pass to Josh Cousins.

It sounds like Jefferson should be ready to go this week. But ...

"Shea will play for us," Calhoun told the Rocky Mountain News. "I can't necessarily say when. I have an idea. You always have to plan and prepare for various spots.

"He's still going to have to do a lot for us on the football field. We'll see how much that involves. I wish I could pinpoint how much, but it's how we go. We'll find out."

Why Air Force can beat UNLV ... Well, if you go by statistical trends, there's no reason to believe Air Force won't win Saturday at Sam Boyd Stadium. The Rebels' defense is second-worst in the Mountain West against the run, allowing 213 yards per game. Air Force, on the other hand, averages 292.5 yards per game running the ball, which is tops in the league by a long shot, and is fifth in the nation. That's quite the disparity.

Going even more in depth on that, though, is the fact that UNLV has had notable struggles against the triple-option, mostly against UNR in a 49-27 home loss on Sept. 27. Add in that Air Force mixes in some zone running -- like the Denver Broncos have done so well just down the interstate from the Academy for years -- and the Rebels' run defense needs to either plug up the leaks in the wall now, or Saturday could get ugly.

Air Force has thrown the ball just 64 times this season -- 10.4 attempts per game -- and there's no reason to believe they'll deviate from what's worked until UNLV proves it can withstand it.

Why UNLV can beat Air Force ... The one thing Air Force's offense is not tailored to do is be successful in shootout-type games. That's where what UNLV has accomplished to this point in the season on that side of the ball comes into play.

That'll especially be the case if the Rebels' run defense continues to struggle.

The Air Force offense is one which likes to control the clock. The Falcons rank third in the league in time of possession, averaging 32:42 per game. If UNLV jumps out to a big early lead, which it has done in each of its last three outings, scrapping to catch up in quick fashion could be tough.

UNLV's offense needs to find its way to the red zone, where the Rebels are perfectly comfortable. They're a perfect 18-of-18 in terms of scoring inside the opponent's 20-yard line.

The infirmary report ... The Falcons' leading receiver, Kevin Fogler, is out with a knee injury, as are fellow wideout Spencer Armstrong (broken leg) and tight end Steve Shaffer (concussion). Fullback Jared Tew (shoulder) and defensive tackle (Stephen Larson) are listed as questionable.

Jefferson is expected to be ready to go, and his effectiveness will be key for the Falcons. His ability to hit holes on the run with more quickness than Smith is a big part of what got him the starting job at QB.

A name that could creep up for the Falcons ... Senior tight end Travis Dekker is not only a monster of a blocker in the run game (6-foot-6, 245 pounds), but if Air Force is playing from behind and needs to start airing things out, he's maybe the Falcons' most reliable pair of hands. He has just four catches for 38 yards in two games played this season, but a year ago he had 25 grabs for 382 yards and a pair of scores. You've always got to keep an eye out for him.

Be sure to log onto www.lasvegassun.com both leading up to, during and after Saturday's game at Sam Boyd Stadium. You'll find ongoing numbers and analysis in our game day blog, plus postgame analysis, reactions from the Rebels, photos, video highlights and much more.