Being picky best when betting bowl games

By Jeff Haney

Monday, Dec. 22, 2008 | 2 a.m.

The list of college football bowl games, which contains a record 34 of them this season, could appear daunting to a traditional sports fan.

To a gambler, however, too often it appears tempting, conjuring images of endless parlays and action on every game.

Bettors should resist the lure to fire away at the windows on every bowl game, Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D’Amico advises. This crazy game, betting sports, is tough enough to beat without plunging headlong into it.

Instead, pick and choose your spots. Do your homework. If you don’t bet today’s bowl game, there’s probably one (or five) tomorrow.

“Don’t feel compelled to bet every bowl game,” D’Amico said. “On the surface, when you’re looking at these games, something might jump out at you. But when you look a little deeper into the matchup, the picture isn’t so pretty. Don’t fall into that trap.”

Among the factors D’Amico considers in handicapping the college bowl matchups:

• The relative strength of schedules of the competing teams, as well as the strength of their conferences.

• The health of the starting lineups of both teams, focusing on any players expected to miss the game entirely and any others who might be playing hurt.

• The geographical distance the teams have to travel to reach the site of the bowl game.

• The projected amount of fan support in the stadium, either because a team is playing at or near home or because its fan base travels well.

• Intangibles that go beyond players’ statistics, such as leadership or an ability to come through under pressure.

In D’Amico’s analysis, three selections stand out as strong bets from the remaining December bowl games, up to and including the New Year’s Eve bowls. Later, we’ll revisit D’Amico for some picks in the January bowls, including the Jan. 8 BCS championship game between Florida and Oklahoma.

Emerald Bowl, Saturday: California minus 8 points vs. Miami

The Golden Bears are D’Amico’s most attractive wager of the early bowls and not only because the game takes place at San Francisco’s AT&T Park, essentially Cal’s back yard — although that certainly doesn’t hurt.

“They’re going to look up into the stands and see nothing but blue and gold,” said D’Amico (online at Vegasinsider.com). “It might not technically be a home game, but it’s a home crowd for them.”

Cal went 7-0 straight-up and against the point spread in its home games this season and performed well against the number as a favorite, showing on several occasions they don’t mind piling on a bit when they grab a lead.

In the Bears’ most recent, for instance, they covered a 35-point spread by beating Washington 48-7.

“I see this team as a great heavyweight champion,” D’Amico said. “When they get you on the ropes, they finish you.”

Not only is Miami forced to travel from coast to coast, but the Hurricanes could be missing a couple of key defensive players in the game, D’Amico said.

From a betting perspective, Miami in a sense is still living off its stellar but outdated reputation as “Quarterback U.” The team has compiled a record of just 12-25-1 against the point spread in its past 38 games with widely available betting lines, according to D’Amico.

Holiday Bowl, Dec. 30: Oregon plus 3 vs. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State has the edge at quarterback, thanks to highly regarded Zac Robinson, but D’Amico advises a play on the underdog in a game that pits two teams with offenses that have otherwise posted similar results.

Oregon enters the game on a roll, having scored 120 points in consecutive straight-up and against-the-spread victories against Arizona and Oregon State.

Oklahoma State allowed 61 points to Oklahoma, failing to cover in its most recent game. D’Amico suspects that breakdown could affect the team mentally.

“Oklahoma is a great team, but I don’t care who you are,” he said. “It’s going to weigh on your heart, weigh on your mind, and you’re going to have doubts going into the next game.”

Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31: Georgia Tech minus 4 points vs. LSU

The Yellow Jackets — and their hometown crowd — will be revved up New Year’s Eve at the Georgia Dome against the defending national champions.

LSU has not been the powerhouse team of recent seasons, though, going 2-9 against the point spread this season and faltering recently against the number when playing teams with winning records and as an underdog.

“This is not a team you want to rely on to cover the spread,” D’Amico said.