Oddsmakers back up BCS on title pairing

By Jeff Haney

Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2008 | 2 a.m.

Oddsmakers and BCS officials are in agreement in their assessment of the top two college football teams in the nation, with Oklahoma and Florida scheduled to meet in the Jan. 8 championship game.

The Sooners and Gators, officially Nos. 1 and 2 in the BCS standings, will face off in the title game in Miami.

Either Oklahoma or Florida would be a point-spread favorite against any other team in the country, according to an analysis by Las Vegas’ R.J. Bell of the betting Web site Pregame.com.

There was a slight discrepancy in the opinions of oddsmakers and the BCS: Although Oklahoma finished atop the BCS standings, Florida opened as a 3-point betting favorite. The total, or over/under, in the game has been set at 72 points, due largely to Oklahoma’s vaunted offense.

Only two bowl games have higher totals attached to them: the Holiday Bowl between Oklahoma State and Oregon (76 1/2 points) and the GMAC Bowl between Ball State and Tulsa (78 1/2). The total in the Texas Bowl between Western Michigan and Rice also came in at 72.

The 3-point spread in the title game corresponds with the projected betting line in the matchup in Bell’s analysis, which included a forecast of point spreads in hypothetical pairings of the top eight teams in the BCS standings.

The point spread in the championship game had been adjusted to 3 1/2 points by Tuesday at some Las Vegas sports books including the Las Vegas Hilton, reflecting early sentiment in favor of Florida among bettors.

Florida, the No. 1 college football team from a betting perspective, would have been favored by 7 points against USC; by 8 against Texas; by 9 against Alabama; by 13 against Penn State or Texas Tech; and by 19 against Utah, according to Bell. Those numbers are based on games set at a neutral field.

Bell noted: “A little-known fact is that Las Vegas is no longer the center of the sports betting world. Many of the sharpest professionals bet offshore. Las Vegas oddsmakers follow this action closely, but for political reasons they are often uncomfortable disclosing this fact. Pregame.com takes into account experts worldwide, providing the clearest estimate of the true sports betting market.”

Both Florida and Oklahoma were among the preseason favorites to win the BCS championship game. Each team was listed at odds of 6-1 to win the title back in May, according to the Las Vegas Hilton sports book. Those were the shortest odds on the board with the exception of USC, which was the favorite at 3-1.

The Gators and Sooners also surpassed the over/under on their season victory totals posted earlier in the year. Florida’s number of regular-season wins had been set at 10, and the Gators went 11-1 before their victory in the Southeastern Conference championship game. Oklahoma’s regular-season win total was 10 1/2, and the Sooners went 11-1 before winning the Big 12 title game.

Both teams were also big winners against the point spread this season. Florida and Oklahoma each covered the spread 10 of 12 times in games in which betting lines were widely available, frequently as double-digit favorites. Oklahoma’s games went over the posted point total 11 of 12 times, while Florida was 8-4 in favor of the over.

USC, the preseason favorite, ended up in the Rose Bowl, where the Trojans are favored by 10 points against Penn State.

Alabama emerged as the biggest favorite in the BCS bowls, laying 10 1/2 against Utah in the Sugar Bowl. Texas has also been installed as a double-digit favorite of 10 points against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. In the remaining, and arguably least compelling, BCS matchup, Cincinnati opened as a 1-point favorite against Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.