College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 5 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023 | 2 a.m.

This year’s college football season is no longer just a transitional year in terms of imminent conference realignment and playoff expansion; it’s also officially one on the field too.

A month into the season, it’s now safe to say the pool of national championship contenders is changing drastically from recent years and perhaps sits deeper than it has in more than a decade. It was already apparent that a few traditional titans had climbed their way back up to the top of the sport, but now it’s becoming just as evident that the foremost recent powers have fallen off.

The last decade of college football was dominated by Alabama and Clemson, and the latter can already be crossed out this season after suffering a second loss, 31-24 as 2.5-point underdogs to Florida State, in Week 4. The Tigers are now 350-to-1 to win the title and 33-to-1 to win the ACC at Circa Sports, astronomical numbers that they haven’t hit this early in the season presumably since the mid-2000s.

Alabama isn’t much better off and might be one more loss away from a similar fate. The Crimson Tide are as high as 40-to-1 to win the national championship having already suffered one defeat, 34-24 to Texas as 7.5-point favorites in Week 2, and this week’s point spread at Mississippi State illustrates how far they’ve fallen.

Alabama is only a 14-point favorite against the team widely considered the weakest in the SEC West division. Three seasons ago, during Alabama’s latest national championship run, it was favored by at least 24 points in all four of its conference road games.

Back-to-back defending national champion Georgia looked like the heir apparent to Clemson and Alabama coming into the season, but the Bulldogs have looked declined in failing to cover a single point spread through four games this season.

Georgia remains the favorite to win the national championship, but its odds have drifted from +150 (i.e. risking $100 to win $150) coming into the season to +260 currently at Circa. The Bulldogs’ shot at an undefeated season has similarly swelled from Even money in the preseason to +125 at the moment.

Maybe this is the year the Big Ten breaks through for its first title in 10 years with Ohio State (+675 to win the title), Michigan (+625) and Penn State (17-to-1) all looking like contenders. Or perhaps the Pac-12’s resurgence is real, and its four-headed monster of USC (12-to-1), Oregon (20-to-1), Washington (18-to-1) and Utah (65-to-1) is as strong as anyone in the country.

Texas (8-to-1) and Florida State (+850) also lurk, as do Oklahoma (40-to-1) and Miami (65-to-1) more quietly.

College football often rightfully gets flak for being top-heavy year after year, but every once in a while, the trend breaks. This is one of the years where the trend might be breaking.

Read below for handicaps on every Week 5 Football Bowl Subdivision game. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game this season stands at 94-115-4 (26-30 on plays, 28-38-1 on leans and 40-57-3 on guesses).

Big Games

Utah +3.5 at Oregon State, over/under: 44.5. Cameron Rising Watch continues on for another week as the return of Utah’s star quarterback remains perpetually delayed, but at this point, it’s worth wondering how much it really even matters. The Utes are so well-coached and physical that they’ve been fine getting by with fill-in Nate Johnson. The Beavers’ defense is diminished and should leave openings for Rising or Johnson, at least enough that this spread shouldn’t be above 3. Guess: Utah +3.5.

Florida +2.5 at Kentucky, over/under: 43.5. Florida’s 29-16 upset win over Tennessee two weeks ago has resulted in a discount price here. Kentucky might be quietly better than both them. There’s still some skepticism on the Wildcats because they’ve beaten up on a pathetic strength of schedule in starting 4-0 but that should just make them fresher for the first key game on their slate. Play: Kentucky -2.5.

Georgia -14.5 at Auburn, over/under: 47. Georgia’s offense is enduring a lot of criticism as it struggles to transition after the exits of quarterback Stetson Bennett and offensive coordinator Tood Monken but new pair Carson Beck and Mike Bobo, respectively, are still averaging a rather strong 6.5 yards per play. For a truly repulsive offense, look to the home sideline where Auburn is 103^rd in the nation with 4.7 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opposition. Guess: Georgia -14.5.

Michigan -18 at Nebraska, over/under: 40. The Wolverines are bulldozing opponents at the line of scrimmage, but refusing to bludgeon them on the scoreboard without a single cover so far this season. Given that knowledge, this number seems right but the trend also feels bound to change at some point with the return of previously suspended coach Jim Harbaugh, who hasn’t shied for pouring on points against overmatched opponents in the past. Guess: Michigan -18.

Kansas +16.5 at Texas, over/under: 64. Kansas has a fantastic quarterback in Jalon Daniels but remains pretty thin in other key spots like the defensive line and secondary. It hasn’t cost the Jayhawks yet but it’s more likely to be a bigger handicap against a team like Texas with an embarrassment of blue-chip talent riches. Play: Texas -16.5.

LSU -2.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 67.5. Ole Miss’ offense looked pedestrian for the first time this sason in last week’s 24-10 loss to Alabama, but the Crimson Tide have one of the best defensive backfields in the nation. LSU doesn’t have the same strength to fall back on, as Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart seems highly likely to be able to march his team down the field repeatedly. LSU will likely be able to keep up, but it’s no guarantee. Guess: Ole Miss +2.5.

Notre Dame -6 at Duke, over/under: 52.5. Notre Dame would have been a play at the opening price of -2 but the spread has since drifted way too far in the other direction. Duke is too well-coached by Mike Elko and methodical with a strong running game and offensive line to get blown out, especially at home. Notre Dame -4.5 is my fair number. Guess: Duke +6.

Washington -17.5 at Arizona, over/under: 67.5. Based solely on what’s happened on the field this season — which you shouldn’t do as prior information plays a critical role predictively — has any team been better than Washington? Not in my opinion. The Huskies are a wagon right now, and they’re set up to keep rolling especially if Wildcats quarterback Jayden de Laura misses this game with injury. Play: Washington -17.5.

Big Plays

Cincinnati +2.5 at BYU, over/under: 49. The pair of Big 12 newcomers look fairly even on paper, but this isn’t an easy trip for Cincinnati traveling cross-country off a physically-taxing loss to Oklahoma. This number would have been above -3 coming into the season, and Cincinnati’s upset win over a disappointing Pittsburgh team shouldn’t have been enough to push it this far down. Play: BYU -2.5.

South Alabama +3 at James Madison, over/under: 49.5. The Jaguars inexplicably dropped a 34-30 loss to Central Michigan as 16.5-point favorites last week but they have too much talent and experience to stay down for long. James Madison has won three straight games by a touchdown or less, a run of good luck that’s boosted their market rating too highly. Play: South Alabama +3.

Houston +9.5 at Texas Tech, over/under: 51.5. Houston has wilted against teams more talented than it, and Texas Tech fits the description in a major way. The Red Raiders have been a letdown so far at 1-3 in the season, but perhaps they can find something with highly-touted quarterback Behren Morton stepping in for the injured Tyler Shough. Play: Texas Tech -9.5.

Missouri -13.5 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 56.5. Buy low on Vanderbilt, which hasn’t covered in a single game this season to inflate a spread that might have been lower than a touchdown a month ago. Missouri is obviously the more talented team but has been pretty inconsistent to increase variance — exactly what a bettor should want in a game with a big underdog. Play: Vanderbilt +13.5.

Iowa State +20 at Oklahoma, over/under: 48.5. Another school that could rival the aforementioned description of Washington as the most impressive team in the nation so far? Oklahoma. The Sooners haven’t shown any weaknesses, and the market is having a tough time catching up as evidenced by their 4-0 against the spread record. They should be giving closer to 24 points against a shorthanded and plodding Cyclones’ side. Play: Oklahoma -20.

Pittsburgh -2.5 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 39.5. The Hokies are one of the bottom 25 teams in the nation by expected points added per play. That’s particularly troublesome considering they haven’t played a difficult schedule. The admittedly-down Panthers will be the best team they’ve faced through five weeks. Play: Pittsburgh -2.5.

Other Games

Play: California -11.5 vs. Arizona State

Play: Louisville -3 at NC State

Play: Louisiana Tech +1.5 at UTEP

Play: Miami (Ohio) -15 vs. Kent State

Play: Toledo -12.5 vs. Northern Illinois

Lean: East Carolina +3 at Rice

Lean: South Carolina +12.5 at Tennessee

Lean: New Mexico +14.5 at Wyoming

Lean: Illinois +1 at Purdue

Lean: Boston College -3 vs. Virginia

Lean: Western Kentucky -5 vs. Middle Tennessee

Lean: Louisiana +12 at Minnesota

Lean: Syracuse +7 vs. Clemson

Lean: Maryland -14 vs. Indiana

Lean: UCF -11.5 vs. Baylor

Lean: Coastal Carolina +6.5 at Georgia Southern

Lean: UAB +21.5 at Tulane

Lean: Texas A&M -6.5 at Arkansas

Lean: Tulsa -3.5 vs. Temple

Lean: Oregon -27 at Stanford

Lean: Utah State -6 at Connecticut

Lean: Georgia State -1 vs. Troy

Guess: Memphis -3.5 vs. Boise State

Guess: South Florida +4 at Navy

Guess: Appalachian State -13 at UL Monroe

Guess: Bowling Green +23 at Georgia Tech

Guess: Marshall -13.5 vs. Old Dominion

Guess: Central Michigan -7.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

Guess: Alabama -14 vs. Mississippi State

Guess: Hawaii +12 at UNLV

Guess: Buffalo +2.5 at Akron

Guess: Jacksonville State -6.5 at Sam Houston

Guess: Air Force -10.5 vs. San Diego State

Guess: Northwestern +26.5 vs. Penn State

Guess: Colorado +22 vs. USC

Guess: Michigan State +12.5 at Iowa

Guess: Texas State -6.5 at Southern Miss

Guess: UMass -1 vs. Arkansas State

Guess: SMU -22.5 vs. Charlotte

Guess: TCU -12 vs. West Virginia

Guess: Ball State +1 at Western Michigan

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or