College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 2 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Texas sat less than 90 seconds away from upending the college football world a year ago.

The Longhorns went up 19-17 on Alabama inside the final two minutes of a game where they were 21-point underdogs. A Texas victory would have marked the first time in 15 years that Alabama lost a non-conference regular-season game, but the Crimson Tide narrowly avoided the fate with a game-winning field goal to prevail 20-19.

The spirited effort, mostly with backup quarterback Hudson Card no less, was still considered proof enough that the long-mocked cliché of “Texas is back” had finally come true. Until it didn’t really, with the Longhorns sputtering to an underwhelming 8-5 final record.

On Saturday, Texas gets another chance to re-establish itself at the top of college football for the first time since reaching the 2010 BCS National Championship Game when it travels to Tuscaloosa, Ala., for a rematch with Alabama. The Longhorns are most widely a 7-point underdog this time around, in their final showdown with the Crimson Tide before becoming conference-mates next season and third meeting between the teams in the modern era.

The first appropriately came in the aforementioned title game when Alabama won its first of six national championships under coach Nick Saban 37-21 at the Rose Bowl. Texas also infamously lost its starting quarterback, Colt McCoy, early in that game too.

There are storylines and intrigue from numerous angles, including in the betting market. Texas at Alabama will be one of the most heavily-bet games of the early season with strong opinions on both sides.

Find out which side I like below, along with a pick on every other Football Bowl Subdivision game scheduled for this weekend.

Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game stands at 19-32 (7-6 on plays, 4-11 on leans and 8-15 on guesses) on the season after a rough Week 1.

Big Games

Notre Dame -7 at NC State, over/under: 52. Newcomers like quarterback Sam Hartman and receiver Jaden Greathouse are drawing the most praise for Notre Dame’s fast start, but a deep defensive front has been just as much of a revelation as the skill players. And that’s where the Irish should have a big advantage over the Wolfpack, which struggled to protect quarterback Brennan Armstrong effectively in a languid 24-14 win over UConn as 14.5-point favorites last week. Lean: Notre Dame -7.

Nebraska at Colorado -3.5, over/under: 57.5. OK, so maybe Colorado isn’t going to be non-competitive like some — including myself — suggested but anointing them a contender seems like an over-correction the other way. If the truth is somewhere in the middle, then this line shouldn’t have flipped nearly two touchdowns after sitting Nebraska -8 last week. The Cornhuskers’ season-opening 13-10 loss to Minnesota as 7.5-point underdogs wasn’t pretty, but they were the more efficient team in the matchup and look ahead of schedule on defense. Lean: Nebraska +3.5.

Utah -7.5 at Baylor, over/under: 47. The line is moving in the Utes’ direction as quarterback Cameron Rising will likely make his season debut in Waco, Texas, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be fully back in sync coming off an ACL tear. The Bears will also be without their own starting quarterback because of injury, Blake Shapen, but Sawyer Robertson grades out as an above-average backup. Utah’s efficiency traditionally drops precipitously on the road, and this is no easy trip, especially with Baylor wanting to atone for last week’s shocking 42-31 loss to Texas State as 27-point favorites. Lean: Baylor +7.5.

Texas A&M -4 at Miami, over/under: 51. These teams look like carbon copies of each other with talent-rich rosters that underachieved last year largely because of offensive ineptitude that led to coordinator changes in the offseason. And the early returns under Texas A&M’s Bobby Petrino and Miami’s Shannon Dawson as offensive coordinators are promising. They’re both bet-ons long-term, but for now, there doesn’t seem to be much separating them, certainly not as much as this line suggests. Play: Miami +4.5.

Ole Miss -7 at Tulane, over/under: 64. Ole Miss smashed Tulane 61-21 the last two times these two teams played two years ago. Yes, a lot has changed since then but that’s pretty representative of the talent gap between these two programs. Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins is one of the best in the nation, and training-camp reports indicated quarterback Jaxson Dart was playing just as well to win the job in a crowded room. Dart showed as much in the opener, throwing for 334 yards and four touchdowns in limited action. Tulane doesn’t have the players to match up. Play: Ole Miss -7.

Oregon -6.5 at Texas Tech, over/under: 66.5. It’s not an easy trip to Lubbock, Texas, for the Ducks, but it’s hard to determine where they won’t hold an advantage over the Red Raiders. Oregon has backups with more athleticism than anyone on the Wyoming team that downed Texas Tech 35-33 as 13.5-point underdogs last week. Oregon’s roster is loaded, and talent tends to win out at an even higher clip in a shootout like this game projects to be. Guess: Oregon -6.5.

Texas at Alabama, over/under: 56.5. From a personnel perspective, this matchup is a wash at best. Texas might even have a slight edge. That wasn’t the case when the Longhorns nearly knocked off the Crimson Tide a year ago, especially not after quarterback Quinn Ewers suffered an early injury. This year’s spread dipped below 7 in Game of the Year lines at most sports books over the summer but rose back up after Texas’ mediocre 37-10 victory over Rice as 35-point favorites in Week 1. That adjustment was unnecessary considering Texas played with an extremely vanilla gameplan, presumably saving all off its more inventive flavor for Alabama. Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban could embarrass those of us betting against him like he’s done so many times before, but it’s far from a guarantee. Play: Texas +7.5.

Wisconsin -6 at Washington State, over/under: 56. Similar to Oregon at Texas Tech, this should be a wide-open affair between two spread-out, vertically-inclined offenses. And, once again, the travel is a deterrent but the playmaking edge is on the visitors’ side. With the likes of running back Braelon Allen and receiver Chimere Dike, the Badgers should be more explosive and that could make all the difference in a game where big plays may become frequent. Guess: Wisconsin -6.

Big Plays

Western Michigan +23 at Syracuse, over/under: 54.5. The market continues to be too low on Syracuse, a veteran-laden team with a competent quarterback in super senior Garrett Shrader. The market continues to be too high on Western Michigan, which is squarely now past its former status as a perennial MAC contender and sits as one of the worst teams in the nation. This number should be closer to Syracuse -28. Play: Syracuse -23.

Miami (Ohio) -6.5 at Massachusetts, over/under: 46.5. The Minutemen have more talent than in previous years, but they’re still thin in the secondary. RedHawks quarterback Brett Gabbert should be able to take advantage. UMass has already traveled across the country, having opened with a win at New Mexico State followed by a loss at Auburn. Play: Miami (Ohio) -6.5.

Appalachian State +18 at North Carolina, over/under: 60. A year ago, Appalachian State was a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup. North Carolina won a 63-61 classic, and much has changed since then, but not enough to merit a three-touchdown swing on the betting line. The Tar Heels looked terrific in dispatching South Carolina 31-17 as 2.5-point favorites last week, but let’s see that level of performance more than once to crown them a contender. Play: Appalachian State +18.

Ohio +5 at Florida Atlantic, over/under: 58.5. Quarterback Casey Thompson stuck at neither Texas nor Nebraska, his two previous stops, but he’s got upside to be one of the best Group of Five conference signal callers in Boca Raton, Fla., this year. Ohio counterpart Kurtis Rourke has barely played through two games since returning from a torn ACL, and may also miss this game. The Owls should win either way but there’s blowout potential if Rourke is out again. Play: Florida Atlantic -5.

Arizona +10.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 59. The Wildcats have some upside with veteran quarterback Jayden de Laura possessing all the physical tools to turn into a standout, and an experienced defense that should be at least a little better this season. The Bulldogs have almost no one back from a defense that stifled the Wildcats in a 39-17 road victory last season. Play: Arizona +10.5.

Auburn -6.5 at California, over/under: 55. The Golden Bears are uncharacteristically stocked with playmakers, a group that was too much for North Texas in a blowout 58-21 victory as 5-point favorites last week. A hastily-assembled Auburn team may similarly have its hands full. Traveling from Auburn, Ala. to Berkley, Calif., for a late-night kickoff is already challenging enough. Play: California +6.5.

Other Games

Play: UAB +7 at Georgia Southern

Play: UTSA -12 vs. Texas State

Play: Louisiana -6 at Old Dominion

Play: Minnesota -20 vs. Eastern Michigan

Play: Maryland -24 vs. Charlotte

Lean: UCF -3.5 at Boise State

Lean: New Mexico State +11 at Liberty

Lean: Michigan -35.5 vs. UNLV

Lean: Kansas State -15 vs. Troy

Lean: Kansas -3 vs. Illinois

Lean: Cincinnati +8 at Pittsburgh

Lean: Oklahoma -16.5 vs. SMU

Lean: Oklahoma State -3.5 at Arizona State

Lean: UCLA -13 at San Diego State

Lean: Virginia +8 vs. James Madison

Lean: Sam Houston +15 vs. Air Force

Lean: Florida International +13 vs. North Texas

Guess: Georgia State -3 vs. Connecticut

Guess: Iowa -3.5 at Iowa State

Guess: Vanderbilt +11 at Wake Forest

Guess: Arkansas -38 vs. Kent State

Guess: Georgia -42 vs. Ball State

Guess: Jacksonville State +13.5 vs. Coastal Carolina

Guess: Virginia Tech -2.5 vs. Purdue

Guess: Northwestern +2 vs. UTEP

Guess: Houston -9 at Rice

Guess: Tulsa +35 at Washington

Guess: Arkansas State +22 vs. Memphis

Guess: Marshall -3 at East Carolina

Guess: Temple +9 at Rutgers

Guess: Southern Miss +31 at Florida State

Guess: Stanford +30 at USC

Guess: Missouri -20 vs. Middle Tennessee

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or