Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 1 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023 | 5 p.m.

Out of the countless NFL betting markets available to gamblers, few were more ignored than lookahead lines as recently as four or five years ago.

It wasn’t that long ago that only one, or occasionally two, sports books in Las Vegas posted lines ahead of time for the next week’s game. And even with the spreads up, they took minimal action — the lines acting more as a point of reference than a betting tool. 

That all seems to be changing more and more each year. Now several shops — especially when including national brands outside of Nevada — post lookahead lines each week, if not options on every game for the entire season.

And the numbers move more frequently too, indicating that bettors are more freely firing into them. All of this why is lookahead lines are the newest category in Sunday Sweats, my weekly column handicapping NFL betting options outside of point spreads before kickoff.

Sunday Sweats returns for a fourth consecutive year. I’ve been profitable in each of the first three iterations, including setting a record with a $2,612.41 bottom line last season.

There’s going to be more opportunities than ever this season, with lookahead lines now a seventh category thrown into the mix. I won’t necessarily make a bet in all seven categories each week, but that will typically be the plan and it’s how we’ll start going into Week 1.

Read below this year’s first edition of Sunday Sweats. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Bets placed outside of the weekly NFL pick’em will be also be accounted for here.  

Tasty Total (0-0, $0): Buffalo Bills at New York Jets under 45.5 points (Circa Sports)

$220 to win $200

Unders are usually good bet on divisional games, especially early in the season. Yes, even in matchups with as much offensive firepower as this one. Here’s the thing about these teams though — They both might be even better on defense this year. The Jets arguably had the top defense in the NFL last year, and the Bills were right there with him until an avalanche derailed them. But they still ranked solidly in the top 10 by any metric. The Jets were one of the only teams during the regular season to give the Bills fits, and they should be able to replicate it again on Monday Night Football. Neither the Bills nor Jets are likely to score higher than in the low 20s.

Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (0-0, $0): Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 & New York Jets +8.5 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$180 to win $150

I already locked in my favorite basic-strategy teaser a couple weeks ago — the Packers and the Browns — and I wanted to avoid using either of the same sides again. It wasn’t as easy as it sounds. Hence the smaller-than-usual bet sizing. The Steelers were an easy first click; their game hosting the 49ers feels like it should be a pick’em. Increasing Pittsburgh from +2.5 to +8.5 was a no-brainer. I’m not as confident in the Jets considering I expect the Bills to have them outmanned at too many spots, and ultimately think the visitors win a close game. Emphasis on close game. I’ve already written above about why I think the showdown will be low-scoring, which makes getting more than a touchdown appealing.

Moneyline Parlay (0-0, $0): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+200) & Los Angeles Rams (+190) at +770 (South Point)

$100 to win $770

Here’s the straight-gambling category. It’s actually gone pretty well in past years though. To start this season, let’s keep it relatively restrained with just a two-teamer linking two near-touchdown underdogs I think have a better chance than the market suggests. South Point thankfully is dealing the best price in town on both of them to boost the payout. I don’t expect the Buccaneers or Rams to make the playoffs or anything this season, but I also don’t expect their opponents — the Vikings and Seahawks — to contend either. These odds are simply too high, and if I’m going to force a parlay, that’s the best thing to look for.   

Player Prop (0-0, $0): Anthony Richardson over 46.5 rushing yards at -127 (Caesars/William Hill)

$254 to win $200

A lot of these bets feel like extensions of ideas I’ve already covered, which is again the case here. My confidence in Richardson winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award isn’t worth much if I don’t think the 6-foot-4, 244-pound destructive runner can get into the 50s on the ground in his NFL debut. Richardson’s rushing ability figures to be a big part of coach Shane Steichen’s game plan — much more than it was in the preseason, which might be part of the reason why this line is depressed. The Jaguars look poor defensively on paper and won’t find it easy to bring the University of Florida product down. I'd call for Richardson to hit more than 60 rushing yards and run for a touchdown to start his professional career. Check the Raiders' gameday preview tomorrow for another prop play that will be tracked here.  

Lookahead Line (0-0, $0): New England Patriots +2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 2 (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

The Patriots may not beat the Eagles outright in Week 1, but they’re well-positioned to at least give them a scare with an improved offense under new coordinator Bill O’Brien and a talent-rich defense. The Dolphins may not find as much success in Los Angeles against the Chargers considering their prohibitive injury situation. If I believe both of those things to be true about tomorrow’s games, then there’s a natural bet to be made in the Week 2 divisional contest between Miami and New England. The Dolphins have to fly across the country for the second of a back-to-back road game set to start the season against the Patriots, which should be much more in their routine with two straight contests at Gillette Stadium. The Dolphins are better than the Patriots on paper, but they’d need to be a lot better to justify laying almost a field goal on the road. I’m not sure that’s the case under ideal circumstances, let alone the one surrounding this Week 2 game.

Future Finding (0-0, $0): San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 (BetMGM)

$660 to win $400

I’m not opposed to laying a big price with a bet that takes a long time to return if the odds are off. And the odds look to be off here. San Francisco is so much better than their division-mates — Seattle, Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams — that this number should be at least -225. I was tempted to hold off on making any 49er future wagers until after Week 1, where I think they could lose to the Steelers and enhance their odds. But in the end, I couldn’t resist. San Francisco is favored in the game after all. And if they win to move all their prices out of bettable range, I’d be kicking myself. It’s better to just get down a bet if the value is already there. And the value is already on the 49ers’ here.

Non-football play (0-0, $0): Jordan Smith to win the Irish Open at +450 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $900

The longtime DP World Tour grinder might be one of the more underrated golfers in the world. That’s largely because he doesn’t have many wins — only two on the DPWT circuit formerly known as the European Tour — but he’s in position to notch his first in nearly two years this morning. It won’t be an easy task, not so much because he must chase down leader Hurly Long — whom holds a 1-stroke advantage – but moreso because he must also fend off Rory McIlroy, who sits one stroke back of Smith. But Smith has the stuff, especially off the tee, to make it happen. McIlroy sits as the deserved favorite, but Smith should be the clearer second choice. His odds are too long. Don’t wait on this one because the first tee times are around 2 a.m. Sunday morning.

Weekend betting column year to date: 87-108-3, $8,200

Weekend betting column all-time: 565-603-10, $26,709

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Houston Texans in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Chicago Bears in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); LSU -1.5 at -115 vs. Florida State in Week 1 ($345 to win $300); Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300); US women's national team to win World Cup at +250 ($200 to win $500); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Cleveland Browns +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Novak Djokovic to win men's US Open at +140 ($300 to win $420); Ons Jabeur to win women's US Open at 28-to-1 ($50 to win $1,400); Week 1 two-team, six-point teaser: Cleveland Browns +8 & Green Bay Packers +8 at -120 ($240 to win $200); SMU to win the AAC at +350 ($300 to win $1,050); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or