NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Final Four

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 31, 2018 | 2 a.m.

The immediate money was on the underdog, with action on the favorite having slowly started catching up as game day approached.

Both of today’s Final Four games, scheduled to begin at 3:09 this afternoon from the Alamodome in San Antonio, have followed the same basic betting pattern in Las Vegas. That’s nothing out of the ordinary, though it would be somewhat rare if the casinos end up needing both favorites to cover.

Bookmakers appear to have done their diligence on the lines, as Talking Points has flip-flopped several times on both games and still doesn’t feel confident. But it’s decision time.

Read the blog’s picks below. The record picking every game against the spread for the tournament sits at 30-31-3.

No. 3 seed Michigan minus-5 vs. No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago What a week it’s been for the Ramblers. They’ve gone from being counted out twice — with the vast majority of people calling for their demise despite virtual pick’em games with UNR and Kansas State — to gaining the support of celebrities like Drake and Russell Westbrook. The transformation has followed a similar path in sports books. Loyola’s Sweet 16 and Elite 8 wins were beneficial to the books, which now find themselves in a position where they might need the opposite in the Final Four. The higher percentage of both tickets and money at William Hill, which operates the most sports books in the state, are on Loyola. And it’s all feeling like a little much.

The Wolverines will be by far the best team the Ramblers have faced all season. The closest competitor would be Tennessee, which Loyola defeated 63-62 as 5-point underdogs in the round of 32 by virtue of a Clayton Custer jumper in the final seconds. Each of Loyola’s first three tournament wins were that close, an undeniable stretch of good fortune that won’t last forever. The Ramblers have also been a little lucky to not encounter a team that can smother it athletically, and the Wolverines shouldn’t either. Michigan plays an even more deliberate pace than Loyola, which will put points at a premium. It made sense, therefore, that the sports books that opened Michigan minus-6.5 saw action on the underdog. The 1.5-point swing through 6 points is large, though. This is the first tournament game where it’s truly hard to envision Loyola winning, so with a tight line, it’s slightly preferable to go with the favorite and hope it scores enough to cover.

No. 1 seed Kansas plus-5 vs. No. 1 seed Villanova Moreso than the last several Final Fours, this year’s semifinals in San Antonio appear to have a clear opening act and headliner. The presumption is that whichever team survives this game between No. 1 seeds will ultimately win the national championship on Monday. That’s a dangerous thought to adopt, especially considering Kansas could conceivably come in as an underdog in a potential matchup with Michigan. It’s unlikely, but the line would open around a pick’em and the action could dictate where it winds up. It’s not foolish, however, to expect more out of this game than both the first semifinal and the impending national championship. These teams’ playing styles alone should make it that way.

Villanova has a historically efficient offense, and at times, Kansas clicks even better. That happened in the Elite 8, where the Jayhawks buried Duke with 1.089 points per possession and a 43.5 field goal percentage compared with the Wildcats’ 1.075 points per possession and a 33.3 field goal percentage in beating Texas Tech. Villanova is known as a lights-out three-point shooting team, but Kansas has actually shot slightly better from long range on the season. Kansas didn’t have a guard duo nearly as explosive as Villanova’s Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges all season, but Malik Newman’s postseason ascent next to Player of the Year candidate Devonte’ Graham now has it closer. Villanova is now less than Even money to win the tournament, which is deserved, considering it’s the best team in the nation. But when there are two teams producing at such a high level, taking the points is generally the play.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.