NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Sweet 16

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, March 22, 2018 | 2 a.m.

Here’s to hoping every bettor spent their three-day NCAA Tournament break wisely and didn’t bust any bankrolls on the NIT, CBI or CIT.

It’s time for another go around on the big stage. The second weekend of March Madness is less hectic, but can be every bit as gainful.

Talking Points is off to a decent start, having gone 26-23-3 against the spread picking every game so far.

Read below for the Sweet 16 picks, which are listed in order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 9 seed Kansas State plus-6 vs. No. 5 seed Kentucky Don’t judge Kansas State too harshly for its wearisome 50-43 win over UMBC as 10.5-point favorites last Sunday. It was playing without leading scorer Dean Wade, who is expected back for the Sweet 16. Wade will make Kansas State’s offense look a little less ugly, without losing the rugged style that makes it a tough matchup for Kentucky. Kansas State plays in a physically grating fashion that could fluster Kentucky’s uber-young lineup.

No. 7 seed UNR minus-1 vs. No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago The Ramblers were fortunate in drawing a pair of opponents in Miami and Tennessee tailored to their strengths to start the tournament. The Wolf Pack represent a break from that, as they have a decided athletic advantage and will push the pace beyond the Ramblers’ comfort zone.

No. 5 seed West Virginia plus-5.5 vs. No. 1 seed Villanova The Mountaineers have rated inside the top 10 of bookmakers’ power ratings all season. Statistically, they don’t grade out two possessions worse than any team in the nation and yet more than three out of every four tickets are coming in on the Wildcats in this matchup.

No. 4 seed Gonzaga minus-5.5 vs. No. 9 seed Florida State The Zags have yet to play their best in the NCAA Tournament, which is in turn keeping this point spread a bit compressed. Playing in their own time zone, albeit 1,200 miles from their campus, in front of a partisan crowd are additional advantages not reflected in the line.

No. 2 seed Duke minus-11 vs. No. 11 seed Syracuse This spread might not be as prohibitive as some are declaring it. The Blue Devils laid only 2.5 more points against the Orange when the teams met at Cameron Indoor Stadium last month — and they won by 16 points. With the way Duke is playing, there’s no desire to line up against it unless the asking price is truly absurd.

No. 2 seed Purdue minus-1.5 vs. No. 3 seed Texas Tech Hysteria regarding the Isaac Haas injury has hit an extreme, as this number sits lower than where it would have been at any other point of the season. Replacement Matt Haarms is not a drastic downgrade.

No. 1 seed Kansas minus-4.5 vs. No. 5 seed Clemson Clemson has effectively shaved a point or two off this spread by soaring to victory and looking like one of the best teams in the tournament in its first two games. Kansas still stands a level above on the season as a whole, however, so it’s hard to pass up what might be a smidgen of value on the Jayhawks.

No. 3 seed Michigan minus-2.5 vs. No. 7 seed Texas A&M Texas A&M is a national championship contender if it plays as well as it did in a 86-65 round of 32 victory over North Carolina as 7.5-point underdogs. But the Aggies have shown similar flashes throughout the season that they’ve never been able to sustain. Michigan plays a relatively bland brand of basketball, but it breeds more consistency.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.