Mark J. Terrill, Associated Press
Southern California linebacker Jabari Ruffin, center, celebrates with his team after they defeated Utah in an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015, in Los Angeles. Southern California won 42-24.
Saturday, Sept. 3, 2016 | 2 a.m.
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Legendary bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro posted Week 1 college football betting lines a few weeks earlier than normal at South Point this year, thinking there was just enough demand to justify their release.
He miscalculated. Interest spread well beyond the niche market Vaccaro believed he was serving.
Three weeks before the first weekend of college football was set to begin, when sports books take the bulk of their action, South Point had already logged $1 million in wagers on the games.
“I knew it was going to be good,” Vaccaro said. “I didn’t know it was going to be that good.”
Unlike perhaps any other week of college football games, anticipation has mounted for this season’s kickoff for years. Ever since several major programs booked games against each other, most notably Alabama vs. USC and Wisconsin vs. LSU, fans have pointed toward 2016’s Week 1 as the slate to break college football out of its usual slow-starting doldrums.
Labor Day weekend will bring a near-record crowd of visitors to Las Vegas. Don’t underestimate football’s role in luring many of them here.
Betting handle increases every season, and this season it’s sprinting out to a big head start.
“I don’t know where they’re all coming from,” Vaccaro said. “It’s more and more and more people every year.”
Talking Points’ college football by the odds is back for another year, breaking down and picking the 10 biggest games each week. There will be a few slight adjustments this season.
For one, taking after the weekly NFL column, every pick will either be labeled a play, lean or guess. There will also be an “extra points” section at the end to cover more off the radar games.
Records will be kept for each type of pick as well as the overall. Last year, the blog finished 90-85-3 against the spread picking all the biggest games with no distinct categorization.
Check out Week 1 of college football by the odds below. Odds are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas.
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Boston College plus-3 vs. Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, over/under: 43; 4:30 a.m. on ESPN2
Sports books will have to do their part in contributing to Las Vegas’ reputation as a 24-7 town on this first full day of college football.
Some betting windows will open several hours earlier than normal to accommodate this matchup across the Atlantic at Dublin’s Aviva Stadium, a venue typically dedicated to soccer and rugby. Bettors filling books hopefully won’t require offense to stay awake, because the line implies there won’t be much of it with this game having the smallest total of the day.
But the stakes, believe it or not, are as high as any on the slate in this conference matchup. Georgia Tech is one of six teams with a legitimate shot to prevail in the ultra-balanced ACC Division, while Boston College is looking to fall in behind the triumvirate of Clemson, Florida State and Louisville in the Atlantic.
The Yellow Jackets and Tigers both carry bet-on characteristics going into this season. Expectations have plummeted at Georgia Tech after last year’s 3-9 straight-up and against the spread debacle, the worst of coach Paul Johnson’s career even though it returns its top three rushers — Marcus Marshall, Justin Thomas and Clinton Lynch — from an option-offense that hummed with usual efficiency.
But Boston College was second in the nation against the run last year, giving up only 2.9 yards per carry, and brings back standout linebackers Connor Strachan and Matt Milano.
Lean: Boston College plus-3
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Oklahoma minus-11.5 vs. Houston, over/under: 68; 9 a.m. on ABC
The first game of the day may boast a pair of buy-low teams, but the first game between ranked opponents features two sell-highs.
It’s difficult to imagine either No. 3 Oklahoma or No. 15 Houston being profitable plays at sports books over the course of the season.
In years where expectations have sat at their highest, the Sooners have struggled. They’ve gone just 54-61-1 against the spread under Bob Stoops in seasons when ranked in the preseason top five.
The Cougars go off the board with an over/under win total of 9 victories, just one below Oklahoma, after recording a school-record 13 victories in coach Tom Herman’s first year. But Houston benefitted from a few factors unlikely to continue, including a 3-1 record in games decided by less than a touchdown and a plus-21 turnover margin.
It also was only average on defense, ranking 58th nationally by advanced-metric S&P ratings, and that’s trouble against Oklahoma. Even if the Sooners fall off, it’s unlikely that the offense will merit most of the blame with senior quarterback Baker Mayfield and junior running back Samaje Perine back.
The betting market seems to have taken notice of the bad omens, as the price on both teams over win totals declined through the summer. The Sooners have been the popular play here, though, as they were only an 8-point favorite when the spread opened.
Lean: Oklahoma minus-11.5
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Missouri plus-10.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 51; 9 a.m. Saturday on Fox Sports 1
Tucked into the hills of West Virginia and more than an hour away from any major airport, Mountaineer Stadium is perceived as one of college football’s most challenging venues for road teams.
The advantage has gone overstated, at least by the odds, for the last decade or more. Under sixth-year coach Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia is only 13-19 against the spread playing in its home stadium.
The Mountaineers had lost three games there for three straight years until last year when they broke through with a 6-1 straight-up record. The change was largely due to the emergence of their defense, a defense that’s now mostly departed.
Missouri was even better on that side of the ball last year, ranking 13th in S&P, and returns eight starters including its entire defensive line and star pass-rusher Charles Harris.
Problem was, Missouri was one of the five worst teams in the nation on offense and gained only 4 yards per play. There’s nowhere to go but up with new coach Barry Odom, and without consistently troubled quarterback Maty Mauk, whom the Tigers finally dismissed this offseason to hand over the position to sophomore Drew Lock.
Play: Missouri plus-10.5
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UCLA plus-2.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 53.5; 12:30 p.m. Saturday on CBS
Ask a random college football fan to rank the Week 1 games in terms of playoff implications, and it would take a handful of responses at minimum until he or she mentioned the clash between the Bruins and Aggies.
That might be a mistake. This might be not only the most competitive, but also the most important of the looming big-time nonconference matchups.
UCLA will go off of future boards at most sports books as a slight underdog to USC in Pac-12 South division, which is asinine. The Bruins have the stronger roster, led by sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen and a defense laced with NFL prospects, and the far easier schedule.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M is the sixth betting choice in the SEC West, which feels equally as far-fetched. UCLA coach Jim Mora has expressed implementing a game plan to key on defensive end Myles Garrett, though that ignores counterpart Daeshon Hall, who’s almost as lethal rushing from the other end.
Texas A&M returns the vast majority of a secondary that ranked second against the pass by S&P last year to present Rosen with an early challenge. Rosen may need time to mesh with a new set of surrounding weapons.
If they click from day one, the Bruins are a serious championship threat. Here’s a prediction that by the middle or end of the year, everyone will look back on this game and realize its significance.
Guess: Texas A&M minus-2.5
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LSU minus-11 vs. Wisconsin in Green Bay, Wis., over/under: 44.5; 12:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC
With betting open for months leading up to the first weekend of college football, the point spreads on many games bounce around as much as a fumbled football in a blooper video.
Not this one. Bookmakers appear to have installed the perfect line, as LSU has stuck exactly as the 10-point favorite it opened in May at about half of the shops in town.
The others have jumped no more than a point with Wisconsin plus-11 the highest line available. The Tigers have taken the majority of the bets by all reports, indicating the Badgers have drawn the larger action to keep the ledger balanced.
The latter does figure to have a locational advantage, as the game’s Lambeau Field site is nearly 1,000 miles closer to the Wisconsin campus. But Wisconsin will have to battle against the architect of one of its biggest recent strengths.
For three straight years, Wisconsin fielded a top 20 defense by yards per play allowed behind coordinator Dave Aranda, who will line up on the opposite sideline in this game. LSU coach Les Miles hired Aranda away to help stabilize what became a volatile situation in Baton Rouge, La., last year when the Tigers lost and failed to cover in three of their final four regular season games.
The drop-off is a distant memory to the betting market, which has driven LSU’s odds to win the national championship down all across town.
Guess: Wisconsin plus-11
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North Carolina plus-2.5 vs. Georgia in Atlanta, over/under: 57; 2:30 p.m. Saturday on ESPN
Fans of antiquated football strategy should particularly enjoy the first of three major SEC vs. ACC pairings this weekend.
The result at the Georgia Dome is going to come down to the old football cliché of which team runs the ball better and stops the run more effectively. That’s mostly because the Bulldogs and Tar Heels don’t project to do much else, especially if the margin stays as close as oddsmakers anticipate.
Both teams ran the ball on at least 55 percent of their plays last season, and that should only increase early this year. There’s at least one explosive running back on each side, Georgia’s Nick Chubb and North Carolina’s Elijah Hood, behind experienced offensive lines, led by Georgia’s Greg Pyke and North Carolina’s Caleb Peterson.
Working against the Tar Heels was their proclivity for getting gashed on the ground last year, as they ranked 106th in rush defense by S&P. The Bulldogs were much better in that department, but they’re breaking in an almost entirely new defensive front in first-year coach Kirby Smart’s first game.
It’s hard to pick a side in this game, unless prop bets are available. In that case, take the “over” on rushing totals.
Guess: Georgia minus-2.5
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USC plus-11.5 vs. Alabama in Dallas, over/under: 53; 5 p.m. Saturday on ABC
Anyone brave, or stubborn, enough to bet on a side in this game is breaking one of two cardinal rules.
The more specific rule is to never line up against coach Nick Saban in a non-conference spot against a Power Five opponent, a situation where he’s gone 9-1 straight-up and 8-2 against the spread since coming to Alabama.
The more overarching guideline is to avoid buying into an inflated line with an unproven team, and despite Alabama entering the season as the defending national champions, it applies.
The Crimson Tide are one of the least experienced teams in the nation, so a bet on them is mostly a blind backing on the culture Saban has built. But considering Saban is 66-55-3 against the spread lifetime at Alabama, there are worse approaches — maybe even like gambling on USC coach Clay Helton.
Helton scored the USC post after taking the interim coaching spot last season a quarter into last season. Upon second glance, Helton didn’t wildly succeed in following Steve Sarkisian.
Helton’s Trojans were only 5-4 straight-up and 3-6 against the spread, though the players love him and he has plenty of talented ones coming back. All-American candidate JuJu Smith-Schuster could particularly poise a tough matchup for a green Crimson Tide defense.
Guess: Alabama minus-11.5
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Clemson minus-8 at Auburn, over/under: 63, 6 p.m. Saturday on ESPN
Let the love affair with Clemson begin in local sports books.
The Tigers of the South Carolina variety were the most popularly bet team all offseason, and that should continue into the start of the games. As long as they keep covering, the support will never end.
It’s hard to believe the Tigers from Alabama were in the same position at this time last year, garnering widespread acclaim as a College Football Playoff contender. They never got anywhere close to that, and saw the action disappear after losing to the spread in their first five games.
Auburn finished 3-10 versus the number, separating itself as the worst major conference team to bet on of the last two seasons with a combined 7-19 record. It’s a stark transformation after Gus Malzahn posted the best against the spread record in the country at 12-2 in his first year while leading Auburn within seconds of the national championship.
Clemson fell just as short last year when returning quarterback and Heisman favorite Deshaun Watson racked up nearly 500 total yards against Alabama in the final. Spurred by the emergence of safety Jonathan Ford and defensive lineman Montravius Adams, Auburn’s defense improved at the end of last season and helped it go under in five of its final games.
It will need to have taken another step under new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele to hold Clemson in check, a possibility that would be a boon for the house.
Lean: Auburn plus-8
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Notre Dame minus-3.5 at Texas, over/under: 59.5; 6 p.m. Sunday on ESPN
Some affluent members of Notre Dame’s alumni base must have cut the annual trip to Las Vegas out of the budget this summer.
For the first time in years, the Irish haven’t taken much money in the futures market. Their price to win the national championship has actually risen around town, for example, going to 22-to-1 from opening at 12-to-1 at CG Technology sports books.
On the one hand, it’s awkward timing because Notre Dame validated its playoff hype for once last season. The Irish were a pair of last-second losses, to Clemson and Stanford, away from going undefeated.
Then again, little of that team remains. Notre Dame returns only nine starters, but two quarterbacks in DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire.
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly has not announced who will get the start, just as Texas coach Charlie Strong hasn’t settled his own quarterback controversy. The Longhorns are choosing between freshman Shane Buechele and senior Tyrone Swoopes.
Buechele is the much preferred choice of the Texas fan base, and last year’s matchup with Notre Dame alone could illustrate the reasoning. Swoopes went 7-for-22 passing for 93 yards in the 38-3 Notre Dame blowout.
But in a change this season, Texas is stocked with more experience as almost everyone on the first two strings logged significant time in 2015.
Lean: Texas plus-3.5
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Ole Miss plus-5 vs. Florida State in Orlando, over/under: 58, 5 p.m. Monday on ESPN
Labor Day will not exist as a holiday to sports book ticket writers.
They’ll likely have to punch in more bets on Monday night’s game than any other week 1 contest given its stand-alone primetime slot with two of the nation’s best programs from recent years. Gamblers will either be looking to get even from the rest of the weekend or add a nice bonus for themselves.
And the vast majority of them will count on Florida State to reach those ends. The Seminoles have regained their spot as one of the most popularly bet teams in the offseason, with their national title odds dropping from 20- to 10-to-1.
They’ve also drawn lopsided action in this game for months, raising the spread from its opening minus-3. Florida State could have a stylistic advantage after the quarterback job fell to freshman Deondre Francois with competitor Sean Maguire injured.
Francois is more of a rushing threat to pair with star junior running back Dalvin Cook, a combination that could hurt the Rebels after they lost all of the run-stuffers off of last year’s team.
With the program embroiled in scandal, Ole Miss saw its odds go oppositely of Florida State’s. The Rebels went from a 25-to-1 price to win the College Football Price to a 60-to-1 long shot.
That’s a sign that they’re undervalued, especially with quarterback Chad Kelly coming back and not receiving enough credit for leading an offense that rated seventh in the nation at gaining 6.7 yards per play last year.
Play: Ole Miss plus-5
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Extra points
BYU minus-1 over Arizona Both teams’ depth charts look extremely similar to last year, where the Cougars were significantly better than Wildcats. BYU might field one of the nation’s best defenses this year.
Southern Miss plus-7 over Kentucky Kentucky is mediocre across the board, while Southern Miss at least brings back most of an offense that helped win the Conference USA West division title last year. The Eagles’ new coaching staff shouldn’t slow them, and might even help here, as offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson came over from Kentucky.
Wyoming plus-10 over Northern Illinois The Huskies are the far better team and program, but this is a troublesome spot. Traveling to play in the venue with the highest elevation in college football for a game that kicks off at 7:30 Pacific team doesn’t sound like a recipe for success.
Western Michigan plus-5.5 over Northwestern Western Michigan will not be at a talent disadvantage with the way coach P.J. Fleck has recruited to Kalamazoo, Mich. He’s also 5-2 against the spread versus Power Five conference opponents.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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