College Football Playoff best bets: Alabama, Clemson at top to start the season

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 1, 2016 | 2 a.m.

One defining characteristic of the last two college football seasons has gone missing as the 2016 season begins tonight.

There’s no program perceived as a virtually unbeatable preseason powerhouse, and therefore, no chance of a third straight year where said team’s performance plummets. Oddsmakers priced Ohio State, the defending College Football Playoff champion in 2015, and Florida State, the defending national champion in 2014, as historic favorites in preseason future odds only to see both drastically underwhelm respective to their betting lines.

Ohio State’s Urban Meyer finished with a losing record against the spread last season for only the third time in his illustrious 14-year head-coaching career. The Buckeyes got to 6-7 against the number, but only with two blowouts to end the year after burning bettors consistently for the first three months.

Florida State was much worse at the betting window two years ago. The 2014 Seminoles tied as the nation’s most unprofitable bet with a 3-11 against the spread record.

The standards for this year’s defending champion, Alabama, are tame by comparison. The Crimson Tide’s over-under win total is installed at 10 victories, a full 1.5 lower than the glorified “will they go undefeated?” prop bets on the 2015 Buckeyes and 2014 Seminoles.

Alabama sits at the lowest odds to win this year’s championship but only at 6-to-1, more than double Ohio State’s plus-250 (risking $1 to win $2.50) at this time last year and twice Florida State’s 3-to-1 two seasons ago. The Crimson Tide are the highest-priced defending national champion in five years, since Auburn was 50-to-1 after losing Cam Newton, Nick Fairley and several other major pieces of its 2010 BCS coup.

This is largely because they’re one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation, whereas Ohio State and Florida State returned rosters that were already set to break NFL Draft records.

The unfamiliarity of Alabama’s players this year has kept the betting market at arm’s length, denying it the chance for any real letdown at the sports book. Maybe the team that’s most likely to carry on the tradition of decline at the top of the betting sheet is the last year’s runner-up.

Clemson, at 7-to-1, has taken more money to win the title than any other team at William Hill sports books. One of the nation’s most efficient offenses from last year returning quarterback Deshaun Watson, leading rusher Wayne Gallman and leading receiver Artavis Scott has seduced bettors beyond seeing any potential issues.

Chief among the Tigers’ concerns are rebuilding the bulk of their defense, something they managed last year with minimal drop-off after losing eight starters. Clemson went from leading the nation in surrendering only 4 yards per play in 2014 to ranking 11th in giving up 4.6 last year.

That’s still the wrong direction, however, and constant personnel turnover figures to catch up at some point no matter how well coach Dabo Swinney recruits and defensive coordinator Brent Venables schemes.

Working in Clemson’s favor is a schedule as tender as South Carolina grits. The Tigers avoid the three ACC Coastal favorites in their cross-divisional matchups — North Carolina, Miami and Virginia Tech.

The only game where they have a remote chance of coming in as an underdog is in week 9 at Florida State. Clemson opened a 1-point favorite in the spot in game of the year lines.

Clemson’s season feels like it may share a quality with Florida State’s from 2014. Although the Seminoles wrecked bettors’ bankrolls that year, they also came out of the regular season unscathed and advanced to the playoff by virtue of mostly close wins against mostly lousy teams.

The Tigers will likely have a losing record against the spread, and still have a great chance of getting into the College Football Playoff. Football Outsiders’ F/+ projections give Clemson a remarkable 83 percent chance of going at least 11-1 in the regular season, a record that would in all probability secure a playoff spot.

That’s why Clemson at plus-155 is Talking Points’ first of four best bets to make the playoffs. Alabama would be a deserving favorite if the two rematched this weekend, but there’s no value on the Crimson Tide at plus-125 to make the playoff in a conference where a number of teams could conceivably win the championship.

Even if both the favorites unexpectedly fall off, the disappointment in sports books would fall short of the last two years.

Check out our other three playoff best bets below. Remember these picks are based on value, and not the exact four teams Talking Points calls for to make the playoff.

Michigan at plus-250

Speaking of easy schedules, Rich Rodriguez — the only coach since 1891 with an overall losing record at Michigan — would have to possess Jim Harbaugh for the Wolverines to be anything other than 7-0 going into the last week of October.

And even after that, they’re only underdogs in a single game — plus-5.5 at Ohio State to end the season. Here’s the thing about Ohio State that the above section may have foreshadowed: Its roster is ravaged by early departures and graduations.

Same with Michigan State, which is Michigan’s other potential stumbling block. The Wolverines are currently a 3.5-point favorite over the Spartans.

Ohio State may have clobbered Michigan last year, but its other two losses were the all-time unbelievable ending in the Michigan State game and an opening-night setback at Utah where it held a yardage advantage. The defense played at a historic level in holding opponents scoreless for 13 straight quarters in the middle of the season — against three of four ranked opponents no less.

With eight defensive starters back, including Chris Wormley and Ryan Glasgow to make for arguably the best front in the country, the Wolverines should be able to maintain it for longer in 2016.

From a betting perspective, Michigan underwent a classic transformation this offseason. The early excitement on the Wolverines drove their price to win the championship down from 15-to-1 to 8-to-1 in the spring. But since then, there’s been blowback and the prices on Michigan’s win total of 10 have remained untouched all around town.

Hype isn’t always flawed. In this case, Michigan deserved it.

Oregon at 8-to-1

Many have described the downfall of the Ducks as destined ever since Chip Kelly marched away from Eugene, Ore., to quack in Philadelphia four years ago.

It appeared to come to fruition last season when Oregon started the year 3-3 straight-up and 2-4 against the spread. All the detractors then got too distracted patting themselves on the back to notice Ducks taking back off behind them.

Oregon closed the regular season on a six-game winning streak, covering in all but one game, while looking like one of the most explosive teams in the nation. The Ducks certainly have the best weapons in the Pac-12 going into 2016 with running back Royce Freeman, who averaged 6.5 yards per carry last season, and receiver Darren Carrington, who averaged 19 yards per reception.

The offense ranked within the nation’s top five in most metrics when quarterback Vernon Adams was healthy. Oregon coach Mark Helfrich plucked Adams as a graduate transfer out of a Football Championship Subdivision program.

He used the same strategy this year in landing Dakota Prukop, who was as electric at Montana State last year as Adams was at Eastern Washington in 2014.

Helfrich’s best recruiting job may have come in the coaching ranks, however, as he hired Brady Hoke to take over as defensive coordinator. Incremental improvements to a defense that struggled last year should be expected under a proven assistant like Hoke, while substantial strides can’t be ruled out.

The Ducks are the best team in the Pac-12, and the betting market isn’t treating them like it.

Boise State at 20-to-1

Consider this a double down on an earlier declaration that Boise State would go undefeated this season.

Even if the Broncos pull off perfection, it’s somewhat unlikely they’d get selected for the playoff field. The SEC champion will get in regardless of how many losses they have, and the other major conference winners would likely need two defeats for an undefeated Boise State to get serious consideration ahead of them.

So why bet on Boise State? The odds are too high to pass up. The line indicates a probability of less than a 5 percent that the Broncos become the first Group of Five team to crash the College Football Playoff.

They’ve got a better chance than that. Only two teams on Boise State’s schedule ranked in the top half of the country in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings for defense last year.

No one is stopping the Broncos. Sophomore quarterback Brett Rypien placed in the nation’s top 10 for completions per game last season while torching Mountain West Conference defenses.

He only figures to improve with a year of growth alongside last year’s leading rusher Jeremy McNichols and top two receivers, Thomas Sperbeck and Chaz Anderson.

It’s highly possible that including Boise State in the playoff would be a mistake from a power-rating perspective. The Broncos would be ill suited to take on the nation’s best teams after throttling their own weak conference.

But that’s not their fault, and they can be a bet-against if it happens then. For now, Boise State is a bet-on in the futures market.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.