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College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 10

Gerry Broome / AP

Clemson’s Wayne Gallman, left, runs as North Carolina State’s Airius Moore, right, pursues Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015, during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Raleigh, N.C.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Nov. 6, 2015 | noon

College football’s oasis no longer feels like a mirage.

The fountain of great matchups is now well within sight, ready to wash away the travails it required to get there. Saturday’s slate of games is the most significant of the season so far.

It’s the day college football fans have looked toward to keep their faith in the sport over the last two weeks, a span in which there have been uncommonly few premier matchups. There were only two games between ranked opponents and none pitting a pair of teams with less than 100-to-1 odds to win the national championship.

But now, six of the top 16 teams in the initial college football playoff rankings tangle against each other. Betting handle should rise in sports books across the valley, with interest overflowing on games with direct championship ramifications.

The headliner comes in prime time when two teams currently in the playoff, No. 2 LSU and No. 4 Alabama, battle for the right to stay there. But the clearest path to the final four might be set for the winner of a showdown between No. 1 Clemson and No. 16 Florida State earlier in the day.

That the only game between undefeated teams, No. 8 TCU at No. 14 Oklahoma State, falls to tertiary status says enough on its own about college football’s Week 10.

Let’s go with mid-season malaise as the excuse for Talking Points’ season-worst 3-6-1 record picking the 10 biggest games last Saturday. That brought the yearlong record down to 51-39-2, which remains more than acceptable.

Check below for this week’s college football by the odds, which includes analysis and picks in all of the day’s biggest games.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Penn State plus-2.5 at Northwestern, over/under: 40.5; 9:00 on ESPNU

There’s nothing like waking up to a procession of physicality and punts.

The first Big Ten game kicking off Saturday has the second lowest point total on the board, and it’s not difficult to figure out why. Twelve of these two already bowl-eligible teams’ 17 games have fallen under this season.

Eighteen teams in the nation are giving up less than 4.5 yards per play on defense. The Nittany Lions, 4.2, and the Wildcats, 4.5, are two of them.

Senior defensive end Carl Nassib leads the country with 14.5 sacks to bolster the nation’s fourth-best pass defense, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings. Northwestern is not far behind at No. 8 against the pass with senior Deonte Gibson, five sacks, its resident pass rusher.

Both offenses have shown recent signs of life, though. Penn State junior quarterback Christian Hackenberg posted his highest passer rating of the season in a 39-0 victory over Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite.

Northwestern freshman Clayton Thorson also had his best game the last time out, though it was largely through his 126 yards on the ground, in a 30-28 upset victory at Nebraska .

Pick: Penn State plus-2.5 Let’s not forget that before the Nebraska win, Northwestern had gotten outscored a combined 78-10 in its last two games.
Rob Brown / AP

Duke plus-8 at North Carolina, over/under: 58.5; 9:00 on ESPN2

The Victory Bell game between the Tobacco Road rivals was not one of the more 25 ACC contests posted in June at the Golden Nugget as part of the game of the year lines release.

That’s turned out to be a mistake, as Duke at North Carolina looks likely to turn out as the conference’s second-most significant affair of the year behind Florida State at Clemson later in the day. Just as the winner of the more celebrated game between the Tigers and Seminoles is expected to emerge as the Atlantic division champion, the same can be said in the Coastal for the Blue Devils and Tar Heels.

They’re the only teams that control their destiny in the division and would have identical 7-1 straight-up, 5-3 against the spread records if not for the officials’ bungled handling of Miami’s miracle win over Duke last week. How the two teams have reached their heightened position is where they diverge.

Although North Carolina’s defense has improved, the Tar Heels are spectacular on offense sitting third in the nation with 7.3 yards per play. Sophomore running back Elijah Hood and senior quarterback Marquise Williams combine to average more than 7 yards per carry.

But Duke gives up only 4.2 yards per play, ranking sixth in the nation, with senior Dwayne Norman and freshman Tinashe Bere manning the middle of a defense that’s made up for a merely average offense.

Pick: Duke plus-8 Too many points in what looks like a field goal game either way.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Notre Dame minus-7.5 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 54; 9:00 on ABC

Notre Dame has made bookmakers as angry as Brian Kelly on the sidelines when an assistant threatens to pick up a penalty throughout the season.

Casino officials ended up more like Kelly’s borderline over-complimentary post-game temperament last week in regards to the Irish, though. Notre Dame was one of the more popular bets on the board as an 11-point favorite over Temple, but failed to cover in the 24-20 victory.

It snapped a five-game covering streak, and brought the rare instance where sports books profited off of the Irish this season. They’re right back to the endless dance of trying to evade a Notre Dame cover this week.

The Irish opened as 7.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh before getting bet up to minus-9 at most spots around town. The fascination with Notre Dame isn’t surprising considering it’s elite on one side of the ball — S&P’s No. 7 offense — while still well above average — S&P’s No. 35 — on the other.

Pittsburgh has two star underclassmen in the defensive backfield, sophomore Jordan Whitehead and freshman Avonte Maddox, to test Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer with S&P’s No. 10 rated passing defense. But the Panthers are merely average everywhere else in coach Pat Narduzzi’s first season, and carry a two-game against the spread losing streak into their showcase home game of the season.

Pick: Notre Dame minus-7.5 No real value in this game but will take the good number with Notre Dame, which was still posted at a couple shops around town.
Mark Wallheiser / Associated Press

Florida State plus-12 at Clemson, over/under: 55.5; 12:30 on ABC

Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher trudges into unfamiliar territory in a game that’s nearly guaranteed to produce the ACC Atlantic division champion.

In his six years at Florida State, Fisher has never come into a game as a double-digit underdog. The Seminoles have only taken points under Fisher on seven previous occasions, going 2-5 straight-up and against the spread in the role.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is more accustomed to giving 10 points or more, going 37-1 straight-up and 22-16 against the spread as a double-digit favorite in his six years at the helm. The preseason point spread in this game was only Clemson minus-2, but it’s difficult to argue the 10-point adjustment was too drastic.

No one’s betting like it, as this line has stayed as unflinching as any game on the board this week. Part of the inactivity could be attributed to a lack of health clarity on the Florida State side. Both quarterback Everett Golson and running back Dalvin Cook, missed last week’s 45-21 win over Syracuse as 16.5-point favorites, though they’re expected to play at Clemson.

Cook has rushed for 8 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns this season, making him just as essential to the Seminoles’ success as sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson is to the Tigers’ aspirations. Watson has accounted for 24 total touchdowns while ranking eighth in the nation in passer efficiency.

Pick: Under 55.5 points Can’t wait to watch this game but want nothing to do with it from a betting end so I’ll back two defenses that are even stronger than perceived.
Charlie Neibergall / Associated Press

Iowa minus-7 at Indiana, over/under: 61.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN

The times are changing at Iowa, and not only because the Hawkeyes were included in the top 10 of the first college football rankings.

This is the first time coach Kirk Ferentz’s program has gone into a game with an over/under in the 60s since 2002. The inflated total may have a lot to do with Indiana quarterback Nate Sudfeld, who’s throwing for more than 9 yards per attempt, but Iowa’s offense deserves some of the credit too.

The Hawkeyes are gaining 5.5 yards per play during their 8-0 straight-up, 5-3 against the spread start to the season, only .1 yards behind Indiana. Iowa just does it a different way.

The Hawkeyes now have three running backs rushing for better than 5 yards per carry with the emergence of sophomores Akrum Wadley and Derrick Mitchell filling in for the injured Jordan Canzeri, who’s doubtful to play against versus the Hoosiers.

The breaks keep coming for Iowa, which appears to be catching Indiana on an opportune time. The Hoosiers have regressed since a 4-1 straight-up and against the spread start to neither win nor cover in each of their last three games.

Pick: Indiana plus-7 Banking on the Hoosiers having used their bye week wisely.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

TCU minus-5.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 76.5; 12:30 p.m. on Fox

TCU appears to have regained the form that made it the nation’s best team to bet on last year with its first against the spread winning streak this season.

Bettors have taken notice of the back-to-back covers — a 40-10 win over West Virginia as 12-point favorites and a 45-21 victory at Iowa State laying 20.5 points — and climbed back aboard the Horned Frogs. The spread for this weekend’s showdown of the undefeateds opened at 3.5 before gradually climbing.

It still remains more manageable than the 9 points TCU was laying in this spot over the summer. The lopsided action is a sign of disrespect for Oklahoma State, which sits one game better than TCU at 5-3 against the spread this year.

The Cowboys have covered three straight, all by double digits, and five of their last six. Sophomore quarterback Mason Rudolph is averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt, which would look impressive next to mostly anyone but not TCU’s Treyvone Boykin, who sits at 9.8.

TCU’s last two games have gone under the total, however, as coach Gary Patterson molds a defense that had gotten ravaged by injury. Freshmen linebackers Montrel Wilson and Ty Summers are among the revelations that helped TCU turn in its best defensive performance by limiting West Virginia to 4.2 yards per play.

Pick: Oklahoma State plus-5.5 Slimmest of value on the Cowboys playing at home and with the better defense.
Mark Humphrey / AP

Navy plus-8.5 at Memphis, over/under: 63.5; 4:00 on ESPN2

Much of the nation has overlooked one of the best stories of the season in the rise of the American Athletic Conference.

Anyone guilty in Las Vegas has passed on a moneymaking opportunity with the young conference’s big four teams — Memphis, Houston, Temple and Navy — going a combined 21-9-1 against the spread. The only straight-up losses by any of them came in a pair of contests against Notre Dame.

None of the four have played each other yet but are finally embarking on essentially a round robin over the next month to determine the conference champion.

Undefeated Houston is the default favorite because it gets to play both unbeaten Memphis and Navy at home to determine the West division champion. Temple already has a 2-game lead in the East division.

The four teams couldn’t be more evenly matched, with Memphis leading Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings at No. 21 in the nation to Navy’s No. 24 and Houston’s No. 25. Temple ranks 35th.

This weekend’s game will come down to a clash of styles. Memphis is the best passing team of the bunch with senior quarterback and budding NFL prospect Paxton Lynch throwing for 9.5 yards per attempt and 18 touchdowns to interceptions.

Navy has the best run game with its triple-run game humming to 5.2 yards per carry. Senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds is one score away from breaking a tie with former Wisconsin running back Montee Ball for the most rushing touchdowns in NCAA history.

Pick: Navy plus-8.5 To repeat, there’s just not much separation between these two teams.
Utah plus-1 at Washington, over/under: 44.5; 4:30 on Fox

Utah feels like a lamb with a head start desperately trying to keep pace ahead of a pack of wolves.

And the lamb is now wounded as the Utes have shown signs of slowing down with their first against the spread losing streak of the season. Utah followed a 42-24 beat down at USC as 6-point underdogs with a lethargic 27-12 win over Oregon State as 24-point favorites last week.

There’s still a long way to go before reaching the safety of becoming the Pac-12 South champion, with USC and UCLA only a game back from Utah. The good news for the Utes is, this is the last game they’re projected to come into as an underdog for the rest of the regular season.

The bad news is, the Huskies challenge them for the title of the conference’s most surprising team. The winner of this game could — depending on the result of Arizona State at Washington State earlier in the day — become the first Pac-12 team to go over their preseason win total.

Washington’s over/under was 4.5 and it sits at 4-4 straight-up, 5-3 against the spread after a 49-3 walloping of Arizona as 6-point favorites last week. Utah’s mark was 7.5 and it’s still hanging on at 7-1 straight-up, 4-4 against the spread despite the recent regression.

Pick: Washington minus-1 Huskies already had a defensive advantage, and now their offense has looked just as effective as the Utes’ in recent weeks.
Butch Dill / AP

LSU plus-6.5 at Alabama, over/under: 47.5; 5:00 on CBS

Las Vegas power ratings dispute the outrage over the college football playoff selection committee including Alabama in its initial top four.

Alabama is a unanimous top-three team by the bookmakers. Some sports books may post Clemson as a favorite over Alabama, but others wouldn’t have the Crimson Tide taking points from any team.

Count Stations Casinos, which released potential playoff lines, among the latter group. Stations had Alabama vs. Ohio State as a pick’em but the two teams favored in any other potential matchup.

LSU is awfully close, though, as this week’s spread implies. Adjusting for the standard 3-point home field advantage, the line says Alabama is 3.5 points better than LSU.

The majority of bettors haven’t been quick to agree as LSU is getting the bulk of the action. The Tigers have treated gamblers better with a 4-3 against the spread behind Leonard Fournette’s historic 1,354 yards and 15 touchdowns.

The Crimson Tide are only 3-5 against the spread but are constructed perfectly to challenge Fournette. Alabama is third in the nation at allowing 2.6 yards per rushing attempt with linebackers Reggie Ragland and Reuben Foster combining for more than 22 percent of its tackles.

Pick: Alabama minus-6.5 LSU hasn’t encountered a defense or a team of Alabama’s caliber, let alone on the road.
Darron Cummings / Associated Press

Minnesota plus-24 at Ohio State, over/under: 53.5; 5:00 on ABC

Ohio State coach Urban Meyer swears he’s equally comfortable with Cardale Jones or J.T. Barrett as his starting quarterback.

The betting market isn’t. Sports books were bombarded with action when Barrett was named the starter in the Buckeyes’ last game against Rutgers.

With Barrett suspended for a drunk driving arrest and Jones back in the role, all has been silent on the Buckeyes’ front going into a game with the Golden Gophers. Minnesota may have also put a scare into anyone looking to fade it by coming a mismanaged clock away from pulling one of the Big Ten’s biggest upsets of the year.

Junior quarterback Mitch Leidner threw for 317 yards against Michigan’s top-rated defense but couldn’t push in a sneak as time expired in the 29-26 loss as 11-point underdogs.

The thrilling conclusion extended a streak of six straight games where Minnesota has come in as an underdog and failed to pull an upset. Ohio State ended an ignominious stretch of its own with a 49-7 victory over Rutgers as a 21.5-point favorite.

The Buckeyes had failed to cover in seven straight when laying three touchdowns or more before the blowout of the Scarlet Knights.

Pick: Minnesota plus-24 Maybe I’m just falling in line with everyone else, but I’m not willing to pay the Ohio State tax with Meyer’s quarterback options limited to Jones.