College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 4

Jay Sailors / AP

Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall is pursued by Alabama defensive back Ha Ha Clinton-Dix during the first half of an NCAA football game Saturday, Nov. 30, 2013, in Auburn, Ala.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Sept. 19, 2014 | 12:15 p.m.

The nation’s longest against-the-spread winning streak went down before week 4 ever really started.

Auburn’s incomparable 13 straight cashes came to an end Thursday night when it failed to beat the 7-point spread in a 20-14 victory at Kansas State. The betting market tried to make it as easy as possible on the Tigers, as the number was bet down from minus-13 when it opened this summer.

But a late Kansas State touchdown wiped away hope for Auburn bettors and cost sports books a chunk, too. All of the big money was on the Wildcats.

The keepers of the streak now are the less-illustrious Virginia Cavaliers, which have covered five in a row dating back to the end of last season. Virginia’s trip to BYU is one of the 10 biggest games this college football Saturday, which means it’s picked and previewed below.

The blog is looking to bounce back from a rough 4-5-1 against-the-spread mark last week that brought the season total to a paltry 14-15-1.

Click through for this week’s edition of college football by the odds.

Georgia Tech plus-7.5 at Virginia Tech; over/under: 52.5, 9 a.m., ESPN

For seven straight years, the winner of this game went on to take the ACC Coastal Division until the streak snapped in 2012.

If last week was any indication, neither the Hokies nor the Yellow Jackets will be anywhere close to the ACC Championship Game this year. Virginia Tech got smashed by East Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite, losing 28-21 after going down 21-0 in the first quarter.

Georgia Tech got past Georgia Southern, but just barely. The Yellow Jackets, a 15.5-point favorite, blew a 25-point lead and had to score with 23 seconds left to prevent the massive upset.

Georgia Tech has a serviceable offense to go with a mediocre defense — the exact opposite conundrum of Virginia Tech. At least the two teams seem to time their periods of strength and weakness, as each of the last six meetings have been decided by less than 10 points.

Pick: Virginia Tech minus-8. I think Virginia Tech could still turn out to be a decent team. I know Georgia Tech is not.
Iowa plus-7 at Pittsburgh; over/under: 46.5, 9 a.m., ESPNU

Those who tagged Iowa with sleeper status — yours truly unfortunately included — are looking awful foolish.

The Hawkeyes have yet to cover in any of their three games and lost to in-state rival Iowa State outright 20-17 last week, despite being a 13.5-point favorite. The return of an experienced offense that seemed to come together at the end of last season has meant little, as Iowa is totally unable to run the ball with veteran Mark Weisman yet to break 100 yards for the season.

Pittsburgh is getting much more out of the same amount, eight, of returning starters. And senior running back James Conner is leading the way as he’s second in the nation with 544 rushing yards during a 3-0 straight-up, 2-1 against the spread start.

Pick: Iowa plus-7. Torturing myself with the Hawkeyes for another week because they should have a caliber of defense that the Panthers haven’t seen yet.
Florida plus-14.5 at Alabama; over/under: 51, 12:30 p.m., CBS

It may have looked better than Iowa so far, but Alabama is also yet to cover a point spread.

In fairness, the Crimson Tide didn’t have a chance to beat the closing minus-42 in a 41-0 victory over Florida Atlantic as the game was called due to lightning with seven minutes to go. The question remains if Alabama’s troubles are related to inflation of the betting lines or indifference of coach Nick Saban to run up the score on teams.

Bookmakers choose the former judging from this week’s line, as it’s nearly a full touchdown lower than the minus-20 hung next to Alabama in this game over the summer. And the big adjustment isn’t for anything Florida, which took three overtimes to beat Kentucky as a 17.5-point favorite last week, has done.

This could be a decent matchup for the Gators, though. Alabama has relied on the run with the trio of T.J. Yeldon, Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake, but rush defense is Florida’s strength. Linebackers Michael Taylor and Antonio Morrison helped hold Kentucky to 2.5 yards per carry.

Pick: Florida plus-14.5. Getting plus-20 sounds spectacular right now, but with that number long gone, I’ll begrudgingly stick with a Gators team I think is better than they’ve shown.
North Carolina plus-3 at East Carolina; over/under: 67, 12:30 p.m., ESPNU

The Pirates just might be the best team in the Piedmont region.

East Carolina is coming off beating Virginia Tech 28-21 as a 9.5-point underdog a week after narrowly falling to South Carolina, though outgaining the Gamecocks, 33-23 to cover the 14-point spread. If only East Carolina played Clemson. Instead, North Carolina will have to do.

The Pirates stomped the Tarheels 55-21 last year to start their current six-game win and cover streak against non-conference foes. They’ve done it behind senior quarterback Shane Carden, who’s seventh in the nation with 1,031 passing yards.

But Carden and the Pirates had the fortune of facing the Tarheels before Marquise Williams emerged last season to turn the season around. Williams will be around Saturday, though he’s off to an 0-2 against the spread start this season.

Pick: North Carolina plus-3. This is only the second time in series history that East Carolina is installed as a favorite, and North Carolina is coming off of a bye week.
Virginia plus-15 at BYU; over/under: 47.5, 12:30 p.m., ESPN

It’s hard to believe Virginia’s 23-21 victory over Louisville as 4-point underdogs last week was its first Football Bowl Subdivision victory since knocking off BYU in an upset to start last season.

Virginia was plus-2 at home in that contest, but BYU has come a long way since. Taysom Hill is suddenly one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation for the Cougars, already racking up 1,045 all-purpose yards this season.

The Cavaliers have covered in all three games this season, however, with NFL Draft prospects Anthony Harris and Demetrious Nicholson roaming the secondary. Virginia is giving up just 4.2 yards per play, good enough to rank 11th in Football Outsiders’ S&P defensive ratings.

Virginia rarely finds itself west of the Mississippi, however, and has only won a quarter of its games lifetime in the situation.

Pick: Virginia plus-15. Tough one to call, but sometimes you’ve got to stick to your first reaction. My first reaction was thinking this line was a bit too high.
Mississippi State plus-9.5 at LSU; over/under: 49.5, 4 p.m., ESPN

The SEC has made waves with eight conference teams ranked in the current top 25.

Truth is, it should have more. The SEC deserves to have nine, as Mississippi State would certainly fall within that rank in oddsmakers’ power ratings and other non-subjective statistical ratings.

The Bulldogs are No. 17 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ measure with an experienced team starring quarterback Dak Prescott and linebacker Benardrick McKinney. It’s the best team in Starkville, Miss., since the mid-Jackie Sherrill era, which is not coincidentally the last time they beat LSU in 1999.

Mississippi State hasn’t covered or come within double digits of LSU over the last four years. LSU has only lost a single home conference game in that span, also posting a 9-7 against the spread record at Tiger Stadium in SEC play.

Pick: Mississippi State plus-9.5. It’s a tough situation at night in Tiger Stadium, but I can’t shake being higher on Mississippi State than LSU.
Oklahoma minus-7 at West Virginia; over/under: 64.5, 4:30 p.m., Fox

Oklahoma could make history against West Virginia Saturday night.

The Sooners have never covered against the Mountaineers. They were infamously smashed in the first-ever meeting, a 2008 Fiesta Bowl encounter with the likes of Pat White and Noel Devine where the Mountaineers won 48-28 as 8-point underdogs. Oklahoma came back to win in each of the last two years, but only narrowly and not enough to cover the spread.

The spread has never been this low, however, and wasn’t projected to be this year. Oklahoma was minus-17 in this spot before the season, but West Virginia’s impressive start has slashed the price.

West Virginia is undefeated against the spread, including giving Alabama everything it could handle in a 10-point loss, with quarterback Clint Trickett ranking third in the nation in passing. Oklahoma will also play without leading-rusher Keith Ford, who’s out for a couple weeks with a leg fracture.

Pick: Oklahoma minus-7. For all the talk of West Virginia’s home dominance, it went just 1-5 against the spread there last season.
Miami plus-7 at Nebraska; over/under: 56, 5 p.m., ESPN2

The last three times these schools met, it was for a national championship.

The only champions on Memorial Stadium Saturday will be the 1994 team getting honored at halftime. The Hurricanes, 200-to-1 to win the first inaugural college football playoff, and the Cornhuskers, 75-to-1, aren’t expected to go very far in 2014.

Miami barely eked out one cover in its first two games, while Nebraska infamously almost went down to McNese State. The more glaring negatives have concealed strengths for each of these teams, though.

The Cornhuskers may not have played much competition, but they’re first in the nation with 8.5 yards per play with running back Ameer Abdullah and quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. The Hurricanes’ defense falls into the top 10 allowing just four yards per play to their opponents with stalwarts Denzel Perryman and Anthony Chickillo up front.

Pick: Nebraska minus-7. Mentioned wanting to jump on Nebraska in last week’s column, and saw no reason why to bail early.
Clemson plus-15 at Florida State; over/under: 60, 5 p.m., ABC

Anyone who bet ‘yes’ on if reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston would miss time to discipline this season has already cashed.

Nevada sports books aren’t allowed to take wagers on those sort of propositions, but if they were, it would have been hard to see the ‘yes’ price at anything less than minus-500 (risking $5 to win $1). Winston’s immaturity struck again as he yelled a vulgar phrase on campus to get suspended for the first half of what betting-wise might be the Seminoles’ toughest game of the year.

His absence for half of the game knocked the betting line down five points, from an opening around minus-20 when he was set to play. Clemson fans think they might have a Winston of their own in freshman quarterback DeShaun Watson, who’s completed 76 percent of his passes and thrown four touchdowns to no interceptions, but he’s stuck splitting time with senior Cole Stoudt.

Pick: Florida State minus-15. Florida State’s replacement starting quarterback Sean Maguire is a complete unknown, but as long as he has the Seminoles up at halftime, Winston can finish the job.
California plus-8 at Arizona; over/under: 70.5, 7 p.m., Pac-12 Network

California has already doubled last year’s win total and equaled its against the spread victories in two games.

Coach Sonny Dykes’ squad seems to have made major progress after a 1-11 straight-up, 2-10 against the spread campaign in year 1. The Golden Bears covered by more than a touchdown in wins against both Northwestern and Sacramento State to start the year.

Sophomore quarterback Jared Goff has started to thrive in Dykes’ system, tossing seven touchdowns to one interception with 510 yards. He can’t be called the Pac-12’s most impressive underclassman signal-caller, however, as that falls to Arizona’s Anu Solomon.

The Bishop Gorman graduate has thrown for 934 yards, more than any freshman in the nation, with eight touchdowns to one interceptions. The Wildcats haven’t covered in their last two games, narrowly escaping UTSA and UNR after their opening-weekend destruction of UNLV.

Pick: Arizona minus-8. Cal’s improved, but not enough to go on the road and hang with a middle-tier Pac 12 team for four quarters.