College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 3

David Goldman / AP

Georgia’s Todd Gurley, left, breaks away from Clemson’s Kyrin Priester to return a kickoff for a touchdown in the first half of an NCAA football game Saturday, Aug. 30, 2014, in Athens, Ga.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Sept. 12, 2014 | 2 a.m.

On most weeks, selecting the 10 most significant college football games to analyze from a betting perspective is as easy as riling up South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier.

This week, for a change, it’s as difficult as tackling Georgia running back Todd Gurley. The SEC East showdown between the Gamecocks and Bulldogs is the lone game between ranked opponents in college football’s week 3.

Georgia vs. South Carolina will undoubtedly garner the most attention and build the largest betting handle, but it’s hard to say exactly what other games will fall alongside it in sports books.

The betting board is littered with interesting nonconference matchups and lesser league matchups, but nothing else that’s guaranteed to boast stakes that reach into the end of the year. Talking Points did its best to choose 10 wide-ranging games.

I can only hope the results top last week's. A couple of bad beats — most notably Hawaii’s 23-0 fourth quarter against Oregon State to lose 38-30 and cover — doomed the blog to a 4-6 performance. That means the record for the year stands at 10-10.

With the disadvantage of picking every game, I’m just shooting for a finish over .500, but an early hole could be tough to overcome.

Read below for this week’s college football preview and picks.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

West Virginia plus-3 at Maryland; over/under: 57, 9 a.m., Big Ten Network

This neighboring-state rivalry was one of college football’s most closely contested a decade ago.

Before the teams’ 2005 meeting, Maryland narrowly led the series with 21 victories to West Virginia’ 20. The Mountaineers then went on to win and cover in five straight contests.

The Terrapins broke through by beating the spread two years ago, then obliterated the Mountaineers 37-0 as 3.5-point favorites last year. This year, the two teams enter as perhaps more evenly matched than ever before, according to oddsmakers and other measures.

In Football Outsiders F/+ ratings, Maryland is No. 52 in the nation to West Virginia’s No. 55. Both teams have started the season 2-0 — though Maryland’s 24-17 win at South Florida didn’t cover the minus-11 spread — with different approaches.

The Mountaineers’ quick-strike offense has returned with senior quarterback Clint Trickett completing 75 percent of his passes. The Terrapins, meanwhile, look improved on defense with linebackers L.A. Goree and Matt Robison separating themselves.

Pick: Maryland minus-3. With the line creeping this low at some shops, I prefer to take the home team with the stronger defense.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Arkansas plus-2 at Texas Tech; over/under: 64.5, 12:30 p.m., ABC

Early returns indicate the Red Raiders are closer to the team that finished last year’s regular season 0-5 straight up and against the spread than the one that started 7-0 straight up, 5-2 against the spread.

Texas Tech failed to come within two touchdowns of covering against either UTEP or Central Arkansas, 30-26 and 42-35 wins respectively, to start the season.

Most troubling is that the Red Raiders’ rush defense has been a major part of the problem. Arkansas running backs Alex Collins and Jonathon Williams could exploit the weakness, as they’re combining to average better than 10 yards per carry.

On the flip side, Arkansas gave up nearly 300 yards through the air to passing-averse Auburn and more than 200 against lowly Nicholls State. Texas Tech quarterback Davis Webb could have his way.

Pick: Texas Tech minus-2. Taking a gamble that the Red Raiders are better than what they’ve shown in the first two weeks.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Iowa State plus-10 at Iowa; over/under: 49, 12:30 p.m., ESPN

In a year where it was supposed to contend for the Big Ten title, Iowa hasn’t looked any different from the program’s middling teams of the past five years.

The Hawkeyes have won but not covered in two plodding, uninspiring performances against Ball State and Northern Iowa, with the latter actually outgaining them.

This line is a testament to sports books not overreacting, as it’s the same number that opened over the summer and the first time in four years the rivalry has a favorite of more than a touchdown.

The last time was in 2010 when Iowa entered at minus-12 and smashed Iowa State 35-7.

Pick: Iowa minus-10. Three straight mediocre favorites to start the picks? Help me please.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Georgia minus-6 at South Carolina; over/under: 60, 12:30 p.m., CBS

Speaking of overreacting, the betting market has done a 180 shift on these two teams in the past couple of weeks.

Going into the season, the Bulldogs’ trip to Columbia, S.C., projected as one of the two biggest games of the season in the SEC. While that still might be the case, the betting line has shifted drastically.

South Carolina was a 3-point favorite all summer, but a 52-28 beatdown against Texas A&M and a 33-23 squeaker over East Carolina downgraded the Gamecocks.

But history is on their side betting-wise , as Spurrier is 7-2 against the spread — though just 4-5 straight up — against Georgia since taking over at South Carolina. Included in the record is three straight covers versus the Bulldogs at home.

Pick: South Carolina plus-6. Georgia probably wins, but more than likely, it’s a close game until the end.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Kentucky plus-18 at Florida; over/under: 50.5, 4:30 p.m., SEC Network

The only other SEC game of the week could reveal a surprise contender in the East Division.

It’s probably laughable to think that team could be Kentucky, what with its 0-16 straight up and 3-13 against-the-spread record versus conference opponents the past two years. But the Wildcats look improved in year two under coach Mark Stoops, as they’ve covered in each of their first two games to nab the program’s first against-the-spread winning streak since 2011.

Florida is the team the first sentence was really alluding to, as it brings back a formidable defense that barely allowed Eastern Michigan over 100 yards in a 65-0 victory to start the season. The real question is whether the Gators’ offense can get back to any level of competence, with the onus falling on quarterback Jeff Driskel and running backs Kelvin Taylor and Matt Jones.

Pick: Kentucky plus-18. Florida has failed to cover the past seven times it has given more than two touchdowns.
Joe Hermitt / AP

Penn State minus-3 at Rutgers; over/under: 53, 5 p.m., Big Ten Network

James Franklin’s hot streak continues.

Not only has the new Penn State coach opened his tenure with two straight victories, but he also received news of the school’s bowl ban getting lifted effective immediately. It would be easy to assume postseason eligibility would give the Nittany Lions an immediate motivation boost, but Franklin’s teams never seem to lack fire to begin with.

The former Vanderbilt coach is now 25-13 against the spread since 2011, when he first took over a program. It hasn’t hurt to have sophomore Christian Hackenburg running the offense, as the quarterback is fourth in the nation through two weeks with 773 passing yards.

Pick: Penn State minus-3. Planning to ride the streak while it lasts.
Andrew Shurtleff / AP

UCLA minus-8 at Texas; over/under: 50.5, 5 p.m., Fox

Like a door ding on a new car, a game that glistened off the schedule just a few days ago is now marred.

A 41-7 home loss to BYU tends to cause some damage, as Texas labored behind sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes. Expect the calls for freshman Jerrod Heard, one of the top recruits in the nation last year, to grow louder if Swoopes continues to struggle against the Bruins.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that he will, though. UCLA has added a few subtle dents of its own.

Coming into the season with the highest expectations in school history, UCLA hasn’t looked capable of matching them yet. The Bruins have failed to cover both of their games with perceived overmatched opponents in Virginia and Memphis by double digits while posting a combined advantage of less than 50 yards.

Pick: Texas plus-8. Want no part of either team, but feels wise to go against the side with 90 percent of the action.
Alonzo Adams / AP

Tennessee plus-21 at Oklahoma; over/under: 56.5, 5 p.m., ABC

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops has marched forward with his crusade against the SEC.

Most of the insults this week have been of the underhanded nature. Makes sense, because Stoops doesn’t have much to come over the top with through two weeks.

The SEC is sweeping up the competition, going 19-1 straight up and 14-6 against the spread versus nonconference opposition to start the year. The Big 12, by comparison, is 12-4 straight up and 8-8 against the spread.

Tennessee has two of those wins and covers, showing major improvement in coach Butch Jones’ second year with routs of Utah State and Arkansas State. But Oklahoma, understandably, is a challenge on a different level.

Pick: Tennessee plus-21. The Volunteers won’t win, but they could easily crawl in the backdoor for the late cover.
Nati Harnik / AP

Nebraska minus-10 at Fresno State; over/under: 62.5, 7:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

Any real conference criticism starts with the Big Ten, which is off to a dreadful beginning to the year.

The Big 10 went 6-6 straight up and 2-10 against the spread last week to bring its season records to 18-8 and 11-15, respectively, including five losses in games in which its teams were favored. Nebraska narrowly missed that fate but may have turned in the worst performance of all by just slipping past McNeese State 31-24 as a 35-point favorite.

Senior running back Ameer Abdullah had to take a pass 58 yards in the final seconds of the game to prevent overtime.

The scary part is, Fresno State may have played even worse over the first two weeks. It faced much tougher opponents but was out of games against Utah and USC in noncovers by the end of the first half.

Pick: Nebraska minus-10. Despite the trip West for a late kickoff, the Cornhuskers should play much sharper than the Bulldogs coming off an embarrassing performance.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

UNR plus-15.5 at Arizona; over/under: 63.5, 8 p.m., Pac-12 Network

The Wolf Pack had the second-worst rush defense in the nation last year. The Wildcats had the ninth-best rushing offense.

Luckily for UNR, the defense is playing better and Arizona lost Ka’Deem Carey to the NFL Draft. Didn’t much matter against the other in-state school, as replacements Terris Jones-Grigsby and Nick Wilson each ran for more than 100 yards in a 58-13 rout over UNLV as a 21-point favorite.

But UNR looks a cut above UNLV this season as the Wolf Pack are up to No. 69 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings — or 44 spots above the Rebels. Arizona sits at No. 32 but looked overrated in a sloppy 26-23 win over Texas-San Antonio on the road as 7-point favorites last week.

Additionally, the Wildcats’ win over UNLV brought their first home cover against a Mountain West opponent in more than a decade.

Pick: Arizona minus-15.5. Extra couple of days to prepare after Arizona played Sept. 4 could prove the difference.