Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 9

football

Mikayla Whitmore

Oregon running back Byron Marshall (9) leaps over Washington defensive back Sidney Jones (26) during the second quarter in an NCAA college football game in Eugene, Ore., Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014. (AP Photo/Ryan Kang)

Talking Points college bet of the week

Talking Points NFL bet of the week

Sports books’ betting boards look relatively sparse for a college football Saturday.

Not only does week 9 lack many can’t-miss collisions between contenders — Ole Miss’ trip to LSU and USC on the road against Utah are the only games pitting top-25 ranked teams — but the total number of games is also down.

Blame tonight. College football is officially taking over a night once reserved for the high school game.

Television interest has caused more weeknight games in recent years, but four contests on a single Friday is a new phenomenon. There’s a gambling option from all four mainland time zones tonight, including a game between traditional mid-major powers and one featuring a team very much alive in the chase for a berth in the inaugural four-team college football playoff.

Oregon has a chance to build its résumé in front of national audience when it hosts California as an 18-point favorite at 7 p.m. today from Autzen Stadium. Two of the other most prominent programs in the West kick off against each other an hour earlier when BYU travels to Boise State as a 7-point underdog.

The slate is rounded out by South Florida at Cincinnati, which lays 10.5 points, and Troy at South Alabama, a 14-point favorite.

The depth of intriguing matchups from week 6 and week 7 is gone, but the extra chances for action a night early should help make up for it.

Take BYU plus-7, and lock in some final plans for Saturday. Talking Points is here to help by breaking down and picking the 10 biggest games, spanning each of the five major conferences.

My record for the year now stands at 43-36-3 in this column. I’m more than happy with the standing and optimistic that it can improve by the end of the year.

Check out college football by the odds for week 9 below.

    • Texas plus-10 at Kansas State, over/under: 49.5; 9:00 a.m., ESPN

      The only thing Kansas State regularly torches as severely as the betting line is its own record book.

      The Wildcats go for their 500th victory in program history Saturday fresh off of upsetting Oklahoma 31-30 as 7.5-point underdogs for a fourth straight cover. Shrewd bettors would usually look for a letdown in this game, but coach Bill Snyder hasn’t reached a transcendent 151-102 lifetime against the spread by allowing his teams to endure wild emotional swings.

      Since returning to the sidelines in Manhattan, Kan., Snyder has pulled 14 outright upsets. In the following game, his teams are 11-3 straight-up and 10-4 against the spread.

      Kansas State has also covered in eight of its last 10 against Texas, though last year’s 31-21 loss as 6-point underdogs stunted the streak. The defeat came despite Kansas State’s best player, now senior Tyler Lockett, setting a school record with 237 receiving yards.

      Pick: Under 49.5 Recent results cloud the fact that both defenses are ahead of both offenses and breathes some life into the total.

    • Michigan plus-17.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 49.5; 12:30 p.m., ABC

      Michigan coach Brady Hoke’s tenure just keeps bringing new lows. Or, perhaps in this week’s case, it’s more accurately a high.

      Michigan is the highest underdog it’s ever been in the series against its in-state rival, opening at plus-15 before immediately getting bet up close to a field goal. The previous high was plus-5 in 2005, three years before Michigan State started its current 6-0 against-the-spread and 5-1 straight-up streak in the series.

      Michigan is actually playing better since back-to-back 16-point losses as home favorites to Utah and Minnesota in September, covering two straight behind a defense that it’s in the top 10 in the nation at allowing 4.4 yards per play. While a better overall defense, Michigan State actually trails in that category at 4.7 yards per play.

      The Spartans more than make up for it on offense where a trio of quarterback Connor Cook, receiver Tony Lippett and running back Jeremy Langford are all twice as capable as anyone on the Wolverines’ roster.

      Pick: Michigan plus-17.5 There are compelling cases on both sides, and as much as I’d prefer to not get involved, I’ll take the points when forced to pick.

    • Mississippi State minus-14 at Kentucky, over/under: 59; 12:30 p.m., CBS

      The Golden Nugget posted spreads on more than 50 SEC contests as part of its game of the year lines in June.

      This game was not included. The betting board wouldn’t have been big enough to accommodate the odds of a prop bet asking whether the Wildcats or Bulldogs would enter as the No. 1 ranked team in the nation.

      Mississippi State has defied all expectations, however, by becoming the first team in more than 30 years to beat three straight top-10 opponents. The Bulldogs have gone from ignored by the oddsmakers a couple months ago to having quarterback Dak Prescott the second choice for the Heisman Trophy at 9-to-4 at offshore sports books.

      Prescott has garnered the lion’s share of the credit, but he’s far from alone in getting Mississippi State to the top spot in Football Outsiders S&P metric for offense. Freshman running back Josh Robinson is averaging nearly eight yards every time he touches the ball and rushing behind an offensive line that is mauling opponents.

      Pick: Kentucky plus-14 Bulldogs have the talent for a blowout, but the Wildcats should give their best effort and keep it close at home coming off of an embarrassing performance.

    • Georgia Tech plus-3 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 55; 12:30 p.m., ESPNU

      Can a great offense overcome a horrendous defense?

      Georgia Tech is using its season to put the question to the test, and a major early grading period will end in this all-important ACC Coastal division showdown. The triple-option is humming down in Atlanta like never before with quarterback Justin Thomas and running back Zach Laskey both averaging more than five yards per carry on more than 100 attempts.

      Add it to the presence of the Yellow Jackets’ typical deep receiving threat, DeAndre Smelter, and they are one of the most efficient offenses in the nation. The Georgia Tech offense actually ranks No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings. But the defense is all the way down at No. 100 and giving up more than 28 points per game against a mediocre schedule.

      Pittsburgh’s offense is another surprise entry in the top 15, but it has developed two standouts in running back James Conner and receiver Tyler Boyd.

      While Georgia Tech has dropped two in a row against the spread, Pittsburgh has cashed in back-to-back games.

      Pick: Pittsburgh minus-3 Pittsburgh’s defense is the difference.

    • West Virginia plus-1 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 65.5; 12:30 p.m., ESPN

      Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy compared his team’s game last week to algebra.

      He must have flunked that course. The Cowboys had arguably the worst defeat of the Gundy era at TCU, losing 42-9 as 10.5-point underdogs.

      At the same time that game started, West Virginia was wrapping up one of the biggest wins of coach Dana Holgorsen’s career. The Mountaineers’ defense emerged to limit Baylor in a 41-27 victory as 8-point underdogs while quarterback Clint Trickett threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns.

      Oklahoma State had no signs of a passing game or defense. Sophomore quarterback Daxx Gorman has not proven a suitable replacement for the injured J.W. Walsh.

      Gorman has completed less than 50 percent of his passes, with three interceptions and two touchdowns in the Cowboys’ last two games. Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 5.6 yards per play, a handful more than a usually maligned West Virginia unit that’s shaved down to 5.3 this season.

      Gundy really used the algebra metaphor to illustrate that his team needs to not get ahead of itself, but the Cowboys are simply running out of time.

      Pick: Oklahoma State minus-1 A desperate team starts to figure out the equation Saturday.

    • Ole Miss minus-3.5 at LSU, over/under: 45; 4:15 p.m., ESPN

      Ole Miss’ in-state rival might have the No. 1 ranking and slightly more support nationwide, but the difference is negligible at best in Las Vegas.

      The look-ahead line for the two teams’ season-ending Egg Bowl proves as much, with Ole Miss currently sitting as a 3.5-point favorite over Mississippi State. The game has instantly become the most anticipated of the year, even though that distinction is glaringly shortsighted.

      There’s still a long way for both teams to enter unblemished as some have suggested. If LSU can duplicate its performance from last week in a 41-3 victory over Kentucky as 1..5-point favorites, then Ole Miss’ run may end Saturday.

      The Rebels are favored against Tigers for the first time 16 years, but the minus-130 moneyline implies only a 55 percent chance they leave Death Valley with a victory. They also have a showdown with Auburn and a trip to Arkansas before Mississippi State, which has the toughest game of the two with a trip to Alabama, where it will certainly come in as the underdog.

      Sitting undefeated against the spread, Ole Miss has beaten the odds so far, but it’s too early to get totally carried away with the Magnolia State teams.

      Pick: Ole Miss minus-3.5 Don’t be seduced by LSU’s performance last week; Ole Miss is a much better team.

    • Tennessee plus-17.5 at Alabama, over/under: 46.5; 4:30 p.m., ESPN2

      The Third Saturday in October is no longer known as a rivalry. It’s now a sacrificial offering, the Volunteers to the Crimson Tide.

      Alabama coach Nick Saban has never failed to cover against his SEC East rival, winning all six meetings and covering in six of them. And it doesn’t appear as if anything has improved with Alabama giving more than two touchdowns for the sixth year in a row.

      The line may have been closer if it weren’t for Alabama lighting up Texas A&M last week 59-0 as 14-point favorites. Tennessee hardly put up a fight at Ole Miss, falling 34-3 as 17-point underdogs.

      The Volunteers are stuck with a helpless quarterback in Justin Worley, who’s probable, despite suffering an injury against the Rebels, and an offense that’s the SEC’s worst with 4.1 yards per play. Alabama, led by standout receiver Amari Cooper, is the best in the SEC at 6.8 yards per play.

      Pick: Tennessee plus-17.5 So I went a little overboard with Tennessee last week, but now they’re getting even more points at home to make this a definite take.

    • Ohio State minus-14.5 at Penn State, over/under: 52.5; 5 p.m., ESPN

      Bettors may have found the perfect time to jump back aboard Ohio State.

      The market had more tentativeness than normal regarding the Buckeyes at the beginning of the season after they lost quarterback Braxton Miller for the year. Ohio State responded by losing to Virginia Tech outright as 10-point favorites and securing a miracle cover against Navy in a 34-17 win as 13.5-point favorites.

      They’ve been unstoppable since, beating the point spread in four straight weeks to earn the public’s notice. Ohio State was bet up from minus-19 to as high as minus-22 against Rutgers last week and cashed every ticket in a 56-17 rout.

      The Buckeyes posted as a 13.5-point favorite for their road game against the Nittany Lions and immediately boosted to 14 before some shops added the extra half point.

      Penn State has gone on the opposite path. After starting new coach James Franklin’s tenure 4-0 straight-up 3-1 and against the spread, the Nittany Lions have dropped two in a row to Northwestern and Michigan.

      Pick: Penn State plus-14.5 Penn State is coming off of a bye week, which should have worked wonders for its struggling offense.

    • USC minus-1 at Utah, over/under: 52.5; 7 p.m., Fox Sports 1

      The first meeting between these two teams upon Utah joining the Pac-12 still lives in infamy at sports books.

      In 2011, Palo Verde graduate Torin Harris returned a blocked field goal 68 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the game for USC to seemingly cover the minus-7.5 spread with a 23-14 win. But officials conferred and ruled that penalty prevented the return from happening, leaving the score at 17-14 and forcing sports books to pay out Utah tickets.

      Two hours later, the Pac-12 office reversed the decision and most sports wound up paying both sides.

      This year’s game might get crazy, too, judging by the betting line. It’s the only week 9 contest listed as a pick’em at a majority of sports books.

      These teams are similar in several ways, starting with Utah’s 5-1 straight-up and against-the-spread record to USC’s 5-2. They’ve each got one of the best pass rushers in the nation with Utah’s Nate Orchard, who has 11 sacks, and USC’s Leonard Williams, the potential top pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

      Pick: Utah plus-1 Watch the video above and on the right if you want more of my reasoning.

    • Arizona State minus-3 at Washington, over/under: 61.5; 7:45 p.m., ESPN

      Anyone who ventured into a sports book with an intention to bet this game early in the week left disappointed.

      The unclear status of both injured quarterbacks, Arizona State’s Taylor Kelly and Washington’s Cyler Miles, made the vast majority of sports books take the game off the board. Now with both likely to play, numbers have resurfaced all around town in a variety of forms.

      Most shops have stuck with a 3.5-point spread, but Arizona State backers can still find minus-3 and Washington bettors can track down plus-4. Kelly, a three-year starter, will step back into an offense that’s cruised without him for the last three games.

      Mike Bercovici filled in admirably, going 2-1 straight-up and against the spread, while maintaining Arizona State’s stellar 6.6 yards per play. Washington’s mild success — it’s 5-2 straight-up but 3-4 against the spread — has all come from its defense.

      The offense has lacked explosiveness while the sophomore Miles matures, averaging 4.4 yards per play against FBS opposition to rank among the nation’s bottom 20.

      Pick: Arizona State minus-3 Jump on the Sundevils while the asking price remains reasonable. This is an undervalued team.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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