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March 28, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 7

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Mississippi fans gather on the field, while a few climb onto a goal post, after Mississippi defeated Alabama 23-17 in an NCAA college football game in Oxford, Miss., on Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014. (AP Photo/Tuscaloosa News, Robert Sutton, File)

Talking Points bet of the week

Sports books are on board with the nation-wide dialogue that last week may have provided the most memorable slate of college football ever.

Las Vegas bookmakers are acclaiming week 6 for more than its thrilling endings and general discord. The house also raked in a plentiful profit with all the improbable results.

The majority of the most popularly bet-on teams went down in the wrath of underdogs. Sports books surely had to pay out larger wagers to sharp bettors with outright upsets inflicted upon five of the top nine ranked teams in the country.

But those losses were easily balanced out by the public’s weekly devotion to the powerhouse programs. There was hardly a parlay cashed all throughout town with sides like Alabama minus-6 at Ole Miss, Oklahoma minus-4 versus TCU and UCLA minus-13 against Utah falling victim.

Underdogs covered in 11 out of 18 games involving top-25 ranked teams. That will always be a winning formula for the sports books.

Can the excitement keep up in week 7? On paper, this weekend’s schedule looks just as stirring with five games between top-25 teams and all but one of them featuring a point spread of a field goal or less.

Talking Points wouldn’t remind a repeat performance from week 6. The college football column had by far its best weekend of the year, going 8-2 against the spread to bring the season total to 33-26-1.

Since I’m analyzing and picking only the 10 biggest games weekly with no forays deeper onto the betting board, 50 percent is the long-term goal. Anything above that is a bonus.

Check below for this week’s betting picks and preview for college football.

    • Texas' Johnathan Gray (32) runs against Baylor during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

      Texas plus-14 vs. Oklahoma in Dallas, over/under: 47; 9 a.m., ABC

      For this year, the Red River Shootout is a misleading name for the rivalry game between Oklahoma and Texas.

      Perhaps fans still clinging to traditional title should implement a one-year only switch to the Red River Grind-Out. The over/under of 47 points is tied for the game’s second-lowest total since 2000, which is quite astounding considering college football’s offensive proliferation since the turn of the century.

      It’s no secret Texas can’t score, as its averaging 13 points per game since being forced to turn to Tyrone Swopes at quarterback. More concealed is the Longhorns’ defense, starting up front with tackles Malcolm Brown and Hassan Ridgeway, ranking fifth in the nation at allowing just 4.1 yards per play.

      Oklahoma’s offense garners all the plaudits, but the defense has played just as well. With sophomore Dominique Alexander breaking out to tackle everything in sight, Oklahoma ranks 10th in the nation in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings.

      The Sooners’ offense is No. 5. The gap may not have ever seemed as wide between these two teams, but the Longhorns have twice been two-touchdown underdogs in the last 15 years against the Sooners.

      They won both games straight-up, including last year’s stunning 36-20 victory.

      Pick: Oklahoma minus-14 Not downgrading the Sooners much for one road loss to a tough Horned Frogs team. I think they’re still one of the top five teams in the nation, and go undefeated the rest of the way.

    • Missouri's Shane Ray, left, tries to tackler Indiana running back D'Angelo Roberts during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 20, 2014, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

      Georgia minus-3 at Missouri, over/under: 60; 9 a.m., CBS

      One of the most common questions in regards to sports betting is how much a single, elite player is worth on the betting line.

      Quarterbacks are almost always the most valuable, but it’s hard to quantify players at other positions. Thursday brought an unforeseen trial when the current Heisman Trophy leader, Georgia running back Todd Gurley, came down with a school-imposed suspension for allegedly getting paid to sign autographs.

      As it turns out, the betting effect was minimal. Although the line shifted towards Missouri at some sports books, others left it undisturbed at Missouri minus-3.

      Georgia came into the season with arguably the nation’s deepest running back corps, but has since lost Sony Michel and Keith Marshall to injury. The onus of the carries will now fall on freshman Nick Chubb, who’s averaging seven yards per carry.

      It’s the second straight year Gurley has missed the Missouri game, though last season was because of an injury. The Tigers made their first grand announcement it was a national championship contender in that matchup, traveling to Athens, Ga., as a 7-point underdog and smashing the Bulldogs 41-26.

      But much has changed for the worse. Missouri returned the fewest starters, eight, in the SEC and has felt the effects offensively with quarterback Maty Mauk battling accuracy issues.

      The defense has performed better than expected, in large part because of Shane Ray who’s second in the nation with eight sacks.

      Pick: Missouri plus-3 Hoped to get Georgia as a dog, no pun intended, after the Gurley news but with that spread never materializing I’ll stick to my initial lean.

    • TCU wide receiver Kolby Listenbee (7) catches a touchdown pass in front of Samford safety Trey Wesley (24) in the second half of an NCAA college football game in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, Aug. 30, 2014. TCU won 48-14. (AP Photo/Jim Cowsert)

      TCU plus-8.5 at Baylor, over/under: 67; 12:30 p.m., ABC

      The first sports books to post a line on this game may have made a mistake.

      On Sunday, Baylor posted as a 10-point favorite with a total of 62.5 points. The action on TCU and ‘over’ has been fierce ever since.

      Now, the Horned Frogs are as low as 7.5-point underdogs and the over/under has soared as high as 67.5 points.

      Both teams have treated bettors kindly, complementing their 5-0 straight-up records with undefeated marks against the spread. It’s no contest, however, which team has the most impressive win as TCU’s 37-33 victory over Oklahoma last week was monumental for a school that’s struggled in its first two years in the Big 12.

      The Horned Frogs may have figured out their offensive shortcomings as the trio of quarterback Trevone Boykin, running back B.J. Catalon and receiver Kolby Listenbee is as lethal as any in the conference.

      Baylor actually beat the spread by more than TCU last week, methodically brushing Texas away in a 28-17 win as a 13.5-point underdog. With star quarterback Bryce Petty laboring his way to a 7-for-22 passing day, the Bears showed they could also rely on their run game with Shock Linwood picking up 148 yards on 28 carries.

      They also boosted to second in the nation at allowing 3.8 yards per play, though a weak schedule has contributed, on defense.

      Pick: TCU plus-8.5 Wouldn’t bet this game because I hate taking a bad number, but TCU is the pick at anything more than a touchdown.

    • Missouri quarterback James Franklin (1) Auburn linebacker Cassanova McKinzy (8) during the first half of the Southeastern Conference NCAA football championship game, Saturday, Dec. 7, 2013, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

      Auburn minus-3 at Mississippi State, over/under: 64.5; 12:30 p.m., CBS

      Auburn rolled to the national championship last year in spite of its defense.

      The Tigers are rolling this season because of their defense. Returners like linebacker Cassanova McKinzy and lineman Gabe Wright have helped provide staunch resistance, limiting opponents to 14 points per game and ranking ninth in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings for defense.

      The Tigers’ offense isn’t lagging either. It’s fourth in the nation, per Football Outsiders.

      While rushing numbers are down, Auburn has begun to build valuable balance with quarterback Nick Marshall’s progression as a passer. Marshall had his finest hour against a formidable LSU defense last week, going 14-for-22 for 207 yards and two touchdowns to add to 119 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

      Auburn mocked the touchdown spread with a 41-7 win. Mississippi State had a 48-31 victory that came just as easily despite the closer score as a 2.5-point favorite over Texas A&M.

      The Bulldogs have covered the spread by at least 10 points in three straight games, with quarterback Dak Prescott downing his offshore odds to win the Heisman Trophy all the way to 7-to-2.

      Pick: Mississippi State plus-3 The betting market still hasn’t caught up to the Bulldogs, as there’s no way they’re far enough behind Auburn to be a home underdog.

    • Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) runs for yardage against North Carolina State during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014, in Clemson, S.C. Clemson won 41-0. (AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt)

      Louisville plus-10 at Clemson, over/under: 48; 12:30 p.m., ESPNU

      Any aspiring NFL scout will want to divert their eyes from the more celebrated midday games to devote some time to Louisville at Clemson.

      The two teams are loaded with next-level talent, especially on the defensive side. While Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley may be the headliner, the Tigers and the Cardinals both have a handful of other probable NFL players.

      They include Clemson’s Stephone Anthony and Grady Jarrett, as well as Louisville’s Lorenzo Mauldin and Keith Kelsey.

      The Cardinals enter as an underdog for the first time this season, a role that has fit coach Bobby Petrino well throughout his career. But Clemson had spreads in its last two games covered by the end of the first half behind new freshman starting quarterback DeShaun Watson.

      Watson is second in the nation in passer rating and making the most of a strong receiving corps that includes Mike Williams and Germone Hopper.

      This game would appear to be for second-place behind Florida State in the ACC Atlantic Division, as Clemson and Louisville are rated far above the rest of their rivals by oddsmakers.

      Pick: Louisville plus-10 The Cardinals defense is leading the nation in a number of categories, and will provide Watson with his first real challenge.

    • Utah defensive back Brian Blechen, center, knocks the ball out of the hands of UCLA wide receiver Devin Fuller (7) on a pass play with linebacker Gionni Paul (13) looking on during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014, in Pasadena, Calif.  (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)

      Oregon minus-3 at UCLA, over/under: 71; 12:30 p.m., Fox

      Go ahead and stop printing those Pac-12 Championship tickets branded with Oregon vs. UCLA.

      A couple weeks ago, it was a forgone conclusion that the Ducks and Bruins would encounter each other on more than occasion this season. They were huge favorites to win their respective divisions and reprise their Pac-12 Championship Game matchup from 2011.

      Then, they were both removed by the vicious storm that blew through college football. Neither the Ducks nor the Bruins are atop of the standings anymore.

      Oregon’s 31-24 home loss to Arizona as a 21.5-point favorite on Thursday night was an omen of the weekend to come. UCLA’s 30-28 home setback to Utah finished off Saturday with one last massive upset.

      The only thing that hasn’t changed is the betting line, as it’s held steady at Oregon minus-3 dating all the way back to the beginning of the year. It’s no wonder when taking into account how these teams resemble splitting images of each other.

      They both rely on veteran junior quarterbacks sure to go in the first round NFL Draft, Marcus Mariota for Oregon and Brett Hundley for UCLA, with promising underclassmen running backs.

      Oregon freshman Royce Freeman has looked marginally better rushing the ball than UCLA sophomore Paul Perkins through five games. The defenses are also similarly average, with Oregon at No. 33 in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings or exactly one spot ahead of UCLA.

      Pick: UCLA plus-3 Have an inkling that Oregon’s issues, mainly among the offensive line, are slightly more problematic than UCLA’s so I’ll take the home team getting points.

    • Arkansas running back Alex Collins (3) sprints past Texas A&M linebacker Jordan Mastrogiovanni (7) for a long run on his way to the end zone for a touchdown in the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 27, 2014, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

      Alabama minus-9 at Arkansas, over/under: 56.5; 3 p.m., ESPN

      Bettors in Las Vegas apparently believe in coach Nick Saban as much as Crimson Tide fans in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

      A week after Saban’s team failed to cash as one of the most popular bets on the board by losing 23-17 as a 6-point favorite Ole Miss, no faith is lost. The Crimson Tide have attracted their usual support at the betting window.

      The first line to trickle out for their game at Arkansas was minus-8. In less than 24 hours, the spread climbed as high as minus-10.5. Some resistance finally came in on the underdog, but the ticket count remains soundly in the favorite’s corner with the spread settling around minus-9.

      That’s a big change from the summer when the Golden Nugget had Alabama as a 24-point favorite in this spot. Why has there been so much change?

      Saban himself can answer. He called Arkansas “the most improved team in the country” this week, which its 3-2 straight-up record might not support.

      But Arkansas’ 4-1 against the spread mark, including covers in each of their last four, might be more convincing. The problem comes with how Arkansas has improved.

      The Razorbacks have been outstanding in the run game with Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams both averaging over 7 yards per carry to rank second in Football Outsiders’ S&P rushing offense ratings. But first in the nation against the run is none other than Alabama with feared linebackers Trey DePriest and Reggie Ragland.

      The downside on Alabama is a tendency to play flat after a loss, as it’s 3-12 against the spread under Saban following defeat.

      Pick: Alabama minus-9 Not confident, but number is just low enough to entice me to act on a continued belief that Arkansas’ strides are overstated.

    • Georgia wide receiver Rantavious Wooten (17) goes up for a pass in the end zone in front of Florida defensive back Vernon Hargreaves III during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Jacksonville, Fla., Saturday, Nov. 2, 2013. The ruling was he did not have possession before he went out of bounds.(AP Photo/John Raoux)

      LSU minus-1 at Florida, over/under: 47; 4:30 p.m., SEC Network

      Treon Harris seized the moment and built hope that Florida’s season was salvageable for less than a day.

      The freshman quarterback rescued the Gators from another dismal performance at Tennessee by relieving chronically ineffective Jeff Driskel and leading his team to a 10-9 victory as a 2.5-point underdog. Then Harris arrived home in Gainesville, Fla., and wound up accused of sexual assault from an incident a couple hours later.

      As if that wasn’t enough police involvement with Florida quarterbacks, authorities were dispatched when third-stringer Skyler Mornhinweg was involved in a fight with a teammate over misplaced cleats. It’s officially back to Driskel, who has more interceptions than touchdowns this season.

      It might not be as much of a zoo in Baton Rouge, La., but the Tigers’ offense is statistically even worse.

      LSU’s equivalent of Harris, freshman Brandon Harris, went 3-for-16 against Auburn forcing the team back to maligned sophomore Anthony Jennings. LSU would start 0-3 in SEC play for the first time since 1999 with a loss to Florida.

      The Gators have only been home underdogs five times in the last 25 years. The last instance was also against LSU, when Florida was able to overcome the plus-3 betting line to win 14-6 in 2012.

      Pick: LSU minus-1 If LSU loses this game, it’s safer than ever to prepare Michigan’s head coaching office for Les Miles.

    • Texas A&M quarterback Kenny Hill (7) passes against SMU in the first half of an NCAA college football game,  Saturday, Sept. 20, 2014, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

      Ole Miss plus-2 at Texas A&M, over/under: 64.5; 6 p.m., ESPN

      Even if some of Ole Miss’ players wanted to be studious and look ahead to Texas A&M after last Saturday’s monumental win over Alabama, they probably didn’t have a choice.

      Oxford, Miss., flew into all-encompassing celebration after Ole Miss’ 23-17 win as a 6-point underdog. The goalposts paraded through town, Katy Perry danced on bars and the governor declared the date an official holiday.

      At roughly the same, the Aggies were returning home to College Station, Texas, presumably stewing about their own trip to the state. Less than 100 miles Southeast of Oxford, Texas A&M put up little fight against Mississippi State in losing 48-31 as a 2.5-point underdog.

      There was probably nothing but looking ahead to Ole Miss for Texas A&M players to partake in. From a situational point of view, Saturday’s game sets up marvelously for the Aggies.

      But what about matchup-wise? An argument can be made that Ole Miss is simply much better than Texas A&M.

      The Rebels are No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings after their defeat of the Crimson Tide. Although the offense has sputtered at times, Ole Miss’ defense is a constant pest.

      Texas A&M really hasn’t impressed since its season-opening 52-28 shellacking of South Carolina, failing to cover in three of its next four games as the defense regresses to a low point.

      Pick: Texas A&M minus-2 The amount of times I’ve flip-flopped on this game is roughly equal to the number of yards quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Bo Wallace will combine to throw for so don’t put much stock into this guess.

    • Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) runs for a touchdown as Arizona safety Jared Tevis (38) closes in during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game Thursday, Oct. 2, 2014, in Eugene, Ore. (AP Photo/Steve Dykes)

      USC minus-2.5 at Arizona, over/under: 68.5; 7:30 p.m., ESPN2

      The final game to kick off Saturday night just might pair the Pac-12 Conference’s most surprising team against its most disappointing.

      And somehow the latter is a road favorite over the former. There have been bigger upsets — backtrack to the Oregon at UCLA slide — but no two losses as poor as USC’s to Arizona State and Boston College.

      The Trojans were double-digit favorites in both contests. Additionally, USC’s marquee victory this season was a 13-10 victory over Stanford as a 3-point underdog in a game where it was thoroughly outplayed.

      Perhaps the Trojans’ last-second Hail Mary loss to Arizona State as 12.5-point favorites last week, then, was variance equaling out in a cruel way. Arizona, of course, had its own Hail Mary miracle earlier in the season in a 49-45 win over California as 8-point favorites.

      It was part of a three-game stretch where Arizona failed to cover the spread. But that all seems forgotten now with the Wildcats’ 31-24 win over Oregon as 21.5-point underdogs.

      Bishop Gorman graduate Anu Solomon is working his way up the freshman quarterback ranks for Arizona, which is bad news for a USC defense that has underwhelmed. USC comes in at No. 44 in Football Outsiders’ S&P defensive ratings, only three spots ahead of Arizona.

      Expected to be a strength, defensive shortcomings are as much a part of USC’s failings as offensive explosiveness is a factor to Arizona’s successes.

      Pick: USC minus-2.5 Tough slate of games, so it’s appropriate to end with yet another one where I feel clueless.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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