Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 6 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 9, 2014 | 2 a.m.

Last Sunday’s early slate of NFL games reinforced the notion that an indestructible mindset is a prerequisite to betting on sports at the highest level.

The point-spread swings in the early-morning contests hit as hard as Seattle safety Kam Chancellor over the middle. Out of the nine games with 10 a.m. kickoffs, five featured a team covering the betting line by more than 16 points in either the second or third quarter.

All but one of those teams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ended up failing to cover the spread used in last week’s pick’em column. And the Buccaneers, which were beating the Saints 24-13 as 10.5-point underdogs midway through the quarter, couldn’t hold on for the straight-up win in a 37-31 overtime defeat.

The Titans and Eagles were the more radical examples, and particularly harmful to Talking Points. Tennessee blew a 28-3 lead to lose 29-28 to Cleveland as a 1.5-point home favorite. Philadelphia was up 34-7 with seconds left in the third quarter, but proceeded to allow St. Louis to close the game on a 21-0 run.

The Eagles covered the steam-induced closing spread of minus-4, but failed to beat the minus-7 hung for most of the week in a 34-28 victory.

In total, three of the five collapses ended up costing the pick’em a victory. But I’m not complaining.

I’m actually quite happy with last week’s 8-7 against the spread record, especially considering I went 6-2 in plays listed in the top two categories — plays and leans. Picking every NFL game against the spread, the record for the year now stands at a strong 42-33-1.

That being said, I’d gladly accept less point-spread drama in week 6.

Check below for picks on all 15 of this week’s games separated as always into three categories with individual records attached.

Plays (9-8)

Baltimore Ravens minus-3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Great spot to buy relatively low on the Ravens, which have played even better than their 3-2 straight-up and against the spread record indicates. The Ravens rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings with a top-10 offense and defense.

Buffalo Bills plus-3 vs. New England Patriots Impetus for New England’s turnaround against Cincinnati was a lethal running game. That’s not going to happen with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams clogging the middle for the Bills, which have the third best defense against the run in the NFL according to Football Outsiders.

Cincinnati Bengals minus-6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers News of Bengals receiver A.J. Green’s injury, which broke shortly after we filmed the Talking Points Bet of the Week video, is enough to cause pause. But it’s still a great spot for the Bengals, which possesses a plus-21 point differential despite a 26-point loss to the Patriots.

Arizona Cardinals minus-3.5 vs. Washington Redskins The game is off the board at most locations because of uncertainty over who will play quarterback for the Cardinals. But reports are more optimistic than past weeks on Carson Palmer’s return, and I trust in Bruce Arians to come up with a suitable game plan regardless against a Washington defense that’s rapidly regressing.

Leans (20-10)

St. Louis Rams plus-3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers Based on their defensive personnel, there’s no way the Rams should be surrendering six yards per play. It’s an anomaly that should sort itself out while the offense surprises with quarterback Austin Davis, who’s seventh in the NFL at 7.9 yards per passing attempt.

Dallas Cowboys plus-8.5 at Seattle Seahawks Dallas tends to rise to the level of its competition, covering the last six times it’s posted as an underdog of a touchdown or more. Seattle is also faced with a tough spot in dealing with a short week after Monday Night Football on the East Coast.

New York Jets plus-8.5 vs. Denver Broncos At least 80 percent of the money is bound to be on Denver despite an inflated point spread stemming from New York’s 31-0 dismantling in San Diego. Expecting a much better effort from the desperate home team, and the final score to stay within a touchdown.

Green Bay Packers minus-3 at Miami Dolphins Dolphins’ bye-week edge is neutralized by having to travel back from London while the Packers also got time off following a Thursday Night Football assignment. At 33-48-1 against the spread over the last decade, Miami also has practically no home-field advantage.

Houston Texans plus-3 vs. Indianapolis Colts These teams are tied for second in the NFL with 4-1 against the spread records, meaning the betting market has undervalued both of them. I’ll side, therefore, with the home team and better coach — two tremendous advantages in Thursday Night Football games.

Guesses (13-15-1)

Oakland Raiders plus-7 vs. San Diego Chargers There’s no value to be found any more on the Chargers, which are undefeated against the spread and all the way down to 6-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at South Point. Raiders may give an inspired effort for well-liked interim coach Tony Sparano.

Minnesota Vikings plus-1.5 vs. Detroit Lions Ready to hop aboard the hype train of Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Also think Detroit receiver Calvin Johnson could be the rare player more valuable to his team than the betting market adjusts — reminiscent of when Green Bay went 1-7 against the spread without Aaron Rodgers last season — when he’s injured.

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-2 at Cleveland Browns Steelers were minus-1.5 last week on the look-ahead line, which would have made it the 10th time in 11 years they were favored at Cleveland. Failing to see how a miracle comeback by the Browns in Tennessee is worth 3.5 points.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-2.5 vs. New York Giants Talk about a hasty change in perception: A few weeks ago, Philadelphia would have been a touchdown favorite in this game. I’m not convinced the Giants aren’t superior, but the value appears to be on the home team.

Chicago Bears plus-3.5 at Atlanta Falcons Two of only seven defenses allowing six yards per play of better square off, making it no surprise this is the highest total on the board at 53.5 points. Spread feels dead-on, but can’t stomach to take the Falcons until their offensive line situation improves.

Tennessee Titans minus-5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars The vast majority of sports books haven’t put this game on the board given Tennessee quarterback Jake Locker’s questionable status but CG Technologies has stuck with minus-5. Not looking to back either team — they’re a combined 1-9 against the spread this season — but prefer to give the small price and hope Locker plays.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.