Vegas Play of the Day: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Nov. 9, 2014 | 2 a.m.

It’s an exciting NFL Sunday, and all feels right in the world.

Make sure to read the Sun’s two weekly NFL columns before placing your bets and laughing at my futile attempt to rebuild my $10,000 starting bankroll in the South Point-lined Play of the Day.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 46.5 points: $440 to win $400

My hunch is that when most people came across this game on the betting board, their immediate reaction went something like, “two terrible teams.” My first impressions was more specific — two terrible defenses.

Not that Atlanta or Tampa Bay is lighting it up on offense by any means, but those units are far ahead of the ones on the other side of the ball. The Falcons still have a top 10 set of skill players, but have been hamstrung by a depleted line.

Their protection appeared to improve marginally in their last game against the Lions, though, and could easily take another step forward coming off of a bye week. Let’s not forget the Falcons went over this total by more than a touchdown themselves in the first game between these teams — a 56-17 beatdown.

Tampa Bay would have the worst secondary in the NFL in a normal year, but Atlanta has a compelling case of its own in 2014. The Falcons are dead last at allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt.

If anything can get Buccaneers quarterback Josh McCown going in his first start in nearly two months, it’s this matchup. I was never among the group deeming McCown a worthy NFL starter, but plenty of smart people thought he’d be decent in Tampa Bay.

A sample size of less than two and a half games might not be enough to totally give up on him — not when he’s playing this defense, at least.

Standings: Bern (53-46-1, $11,756), Keefer (45-55-1, $6,871), Brewer (45-53-3, $3,705)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.