Bowl Pick ’em Against the Spread, Part 1

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Dec. 19, 2014 | noon

An unintended, and perhaps unpredictable, benefit of the new college football playoff is a more balanced helping of bowl games.

Plucking the top four teams into their own bracket has drastically altered the postseason landscape for the first time in 15 years. It’s either that change or pure luck — probably a combination of both — that has the odds implying one of the most competitive bowl schedules in college football history.

Out of 36 bowl games not including the two national semifinals, there are only five point spreads of more than a touchdown. Nearly half of the contests, 17, have a betting line of a field goal or less.

With spreads so tight, bettors need only pick the outright winner in most cases to have a profitable postseason.

Talking Points has been up to the task in the past. In four previous years picking every bowl game against the spread, the blog has gone 73-63-2.

I’m also coming off an 78-65-2 against the spread regular season picking the most significant games every week. Carrying the success into bowl season won’t be easy, but it’s the objective.

Check below for the first edition of this year’s bowl pick’em.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: UNR minus-1 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, over/under: 60.5

8 a.m. Saturday, Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans on ESPN

Not only have the Cajuns raged their way to three straight victories in this game, but they’ve also covered in the trio of contests. No matter what edges the opponent may have on paper, Lafayette gets the benefit of a home-field advantage with enough of its fans making the 130-mile jaunt to set attendance records in each successive year. But make no mistake: The Wolf Pack are the better team. They are 22 spots ahead of the Ragin’ Cajuns, No. 64 to No. 86, in Football Outsiders F/+ ratings. Although Lafayette has an experienced senior quarterback in Terrance Broadway, his stature pales in comparison to his opposing starter. Reno quarterback Cody Fajardo signs off a career where he became only the second player in NCAA history, behind predecessor Colin Kaepernick, to pass for at least 9,000 yards and run for 3,000.

Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette plus-1

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Utah State minus-10.5 vs. UTEP, over/under: 47

11:20 a.m. Saturday, University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M. on ESPN

UTEP coach Sean Kugler was a newborn the last time his team his won bowl game. The Miners haven’t prevailed in the postseason since the 1967 Sun Bowl, failing to as much as cover in their last five opportunities. It’s been a year of breaking through barriers at UTEP, though. The Miners have a winning against the spread record for the first time since 2007 — the nation’s third-best mark at 9-3, no less. Utah State was a dark horse pick to become the non power-five conference team to snag a major bowl bid at the beginning of the season. Three quarterback injuries later, the Aggies (9-4 straight-up, 6-7 against the spread) fall to their least prestigious postseason game throughout their four-year stretch as a bowl team. Fourth-string true freshman Kent Myers has actually performed decently for Utah State, going 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 against the spread, but amazingly all four wins were against teams with worse defenses that UTEP’s according to F/+.

Pick: UTEP plus-10.5

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl: Utah minus-3.5 vs. Colorado State, over/under: 58

12:30 p.m. Saturday, Sam Boyd Stadium on ABC

Looking back, much of Utah’s success this season was an anomaly. Colorado State’s was not. The Utes went an unsustainable 5-2 straight-up in games decided by less than a touchdown. In one particularly amazing stretch in the middle of the season, they were outgained in nine straight contests but managed to go 6-3 against the spread, 5-4 straight-up. Utah posted a minus-28 yardage per game differential. Colorado State was plus-83. Point differential was just as drastic, with the Rams at plus-140 to the Utes’ plus-48. Granted, Utah played a much tougher schedule. But that’s not enough to make up the entire discrepancy.

Pick: Colorado State plus-3.5

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan pick’em vs. Arizona Force, over/under: 58

2:45 p.m. Saturday, Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho on ESPN

The line is heading starkly away from Western Michigan, with the Broncos having opened as high as minus-2.5 but now the Falcons laying a point at some sports books. The Broncos couldn’t possibly do much else to get the betting market to believe in them. They were the best team in the nation against the spread at 10-2, having covered 10 straight before a season-closing 31-21 loss to Northern Illinois as 8-point favorites. Running back Jarvion Franklin is the nation’s leading freshman rusher. Sophomore quarterback Zach Terrell is fifth in passer rating. But Air Force has the better wins. The Falcons beat both Boise State and Colorado State this season as more than a touchdown underdog. They toiled in some down moments too — losing to Wyoming and barely beating New Mexico — but overall has the better defense. The MAC is also 8-19 against the spread in bowl games over the last six years.

Pick: Air Force pick’em

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl: South Alabama minus-3 vs. Bowling Green, over/under: 53.5

6:15 p.m. Saturday, Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala. on ESPN

Only the true degenerates will line up at the betting window to punch in tickets on this one. There’s not much to like about either team in what can only be described as the weakest bowl pairing of the year. The Falcons and the Jaguars are a combined 8-16-1 against the spread on the season. South Alabama has the fourth least efficient offense in the nation, according to F/+, to pit against a Bowling Green defense rating No. 110 out of 125 teams.

Pick: Bowling Green plus-3

Miami Beach Bowl: BYU plus-1 vs. Memphis, over/under: 56.5

11 a.m. Monday, Marlins Park in Miami on ESPN

No word on if the Marlins’ homerun sculpture will be in use, but the Tigers and Cougars are capable of lighting it up. Both these teams enter on tears, as Memphis won its final six games in the regular season while BYU put together a four-game winning streak. Giving up 4.7 yards per play, Memphis ranks in the top 20 nationally on defense led by ferocious linebacker Tank Jones. BYU turned around a seven-game against the spread losing streak by cashing in three of its final four contests with a refreshed offensive attack. Senior quarterback Christian Stewart, who struggled upon initially taking over for the injured Taysom Hill, has thrown for 12 touchdowns to one interception and nearly 1,300 yards over the winning streak.

Pick: Memphis minus-1

Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois plus-10 vs. Marshall, over/under: 66

3 p.m. Tuesday, FAU Football Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla. on ESPN

Marshall’s motivation is under a microscope after the Thundering Herd looked lethargic in the Conference USA Championship Game, beating Louisiana Tech 26-23 but failing to cover minus-8, following its first loss of the season. Gamblers appear to have jumped aboard the belief that the players checked out of the season after their undefeated dreams were dashed. But that overlooks a larger sample of a mightily impressive season. The Thundering Herd lead the nation at 7.4 yards per play — a half-yard ahead of the closest challenger. The defense is much better than perceived too at surrendering just 4.7 yards per play. Record-setting quarterback Rakeem Cato is a South Florida native, meaning he’s not going to be content sleepwalking through the final game of his career in front of friends and family.

Pick: Marshall minus-10

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Navy plus-3 vs. San Diego State, over/under: 54.5

6:30 p.m. Tuesday, Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on ESPN

Situational oddities infect the last of our first bunch of games. Navy comes in off of a practically normal practice week having beaten Army 17-10 to win the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy 10 days ago. San Diego State’s time off fits more with a usual bowl schedule, as it hasn’t played in nearly a month. Hard to discern who gets an advantage out of that. Part of the reason San Diego State is favored is it’s playing in its home stadium. But Navy should attract just as many fans with the strong military presence in San Diego. The Aztecs have played in this bowl twice, both within the last four years, and gone 1-1 straight-up and against the spread with no signs of any major Qualcomm edge.

Pick: Navy plus-3

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.