Bowl Pick’em Against The Spread Entry 4

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2011 | 2:05 a.m.

A fast start is nice. A postseason-long consistency is much better.

That’s why I’m not going to take any time to celebrate the 7-3 start in picking this year’s bowl games against the spread. Twenty-five games are left this bowl season, meaning disaster is well within reach.

With games coming at a more rapid pace over the next few days, the blog will run a little differently the rest of the way. Breakdowns are shortened and this page will get updated daily until next week with picks from the upcoming night’s games.

So make sure to check back and join us for the ride. Here’s to hoping we can cash some tickets together.

Military Bowl: Toledo (-3) vs. Air Force, over/under: 71

Wednesday 1:30, RFK Memorial Stadium in Washington D.C., ESPN

The Falcons must be a lock in something called the Military Bowl, right? Not quite. Although it’s less poetic, Toledo should prevail without much trouble. The Rockets are an incorrect extra point call and a shootout of the century loss away from a 10-2 season. Their defense is much maligned, but mostly because of ineptitude against the pass. Toledo can slow the run, which is all Air Force will do out of their triple option.

Pick: Toledo -3

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: California (+4) vs. Texas

Wednesday 5:00, Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, ESPN

Rumors of deteriorating job security emerged for both California coach Jeff Tedford and Texas coach Mack Brown this season. Neither Tedford nor Brown have rewarded bettors much in the postseason. Both have losing records against the spread all time in bowl games. While the Longhorns ended the season on a 1-3 run, the Golden Bears were 3-1. California’s only loss in the final month came in a 31-8 battle at Stanford. The Golden Bears late success means this line could be closer to a pick’em.

Pick: California +4

Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State (-3.5) vs. Notre Dame

Thursday 2:30, Florida Citrus Bowl, ESPN

These two teams had seasons that mirrored each other. They failed to live up to expectations, but finished the season better than they started. Notre Dame went 5-7 against the spread. Florida State was 6-6. A slight lean goes to the Seminoles here because they have the better defense, ranked fourth in the nation in points allowed, and the better quarterback, E.J. Manuel.

Pick: Florida State -3.5

Valero Alamo Bowl: Washington (+9.5) vs. Baylor

Thursday 6:00, Alamodome in San Antonio, ESPN

The idea that the Heisman Trophy winner always struggles in his team’s bowl game is a myth. It wasn’t a problem for the last two Heisman winners, Alabama’s Mark Ingram and Auburn’s Cam Newton, who led their teams to national championship wins and covers. It shouldn’t be difficult for Robert Griffin III, either, against a defense like Washington’s that hasn’t allowed less than 34 points in 10 weeks. The cause for concern comes with Baylor’s defense, which isn’t much better. The game could turn into a shootout that allows the Huskies to stay within the number, but that’s a risk we’ll have to take.

Pick: Baylor -9.5

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: BYU (+1) vs. Tulsa

Friday 9:00, Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, ESPN

This line has moved a staggering four points, as BYU opened as a field goal favorite in many spots around town. It’s the right movement. BYU went 9-3, but defeated only one team that made a bowl game — 7-6 Utah State. Tulsa went 8-4 but take a look at its losses — Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State and Houston. Golden Hurricanes quarterback G.J. Kinne is game enough to pick apart a tough BYU defense.

Pick: Tulsa -1

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (-1) vs. Iowa State

Friday 12:20, Yankee Stadium in New York, ESPN

The under 44.5 might be worth the closest look in this game. The weather could get nasty in the Big Apple and neither offense is awe-inspiring. Iowa State became bowl eligible because of its stunning, double-overtime victory over Oklahoma State last month. The Cyclones continued to look impressive in their next two games, though they lost to both Oklahoma and Kansas State. They could be peaking. Iowa State’s biggest weakness is its rush defense, but Rutgers has no ground game to speak of.

Pick: Iowa State +1

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Mississippi State (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest

Friday 3:40, LP Field in Nashville, Tenn., ESPN

Many overrated Mississippi State headed into the season, including oddsmakers. The Bulldogs went 1-6 against the spread to start the season. The Demon Deacons, perhaps underrated, went 4-1 at the start of the year. Wake Forest sophomore quarterback Tanner Price has impressed without much talent around him. As intimidating as Mississippi State’s defense is, the offense can’t score points to match. The offensive struggles make for a lot of close games, which should happen again here.

Pick: Wake Forest +6.5

Insight Bowl: Oklahoma (-13.5) vs. Iowa

Friday 7:00, Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Ariz., ESPN

Oklahoma, a team ranked No. 1 at the start of the season, can’t be overly excited about an Insight Bowl appearance. Then again, are the Sooners ever excited about a bowl game? They’ve covered the spread in only one of their last five postseason berths. Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones has thrown five interceptions and no touchdowns in his last three games. The Iowa secondary, however, is iffy. It’s a gamble, but talented Hawkeyes running back Marcus Coker and receiver Marvin McNutt might be able to keep it close against a banged up Sooners defense.

Pick: Iowa +13.5

Menieke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas A&M (-10) vs. Northwestern

9:00 Saturday, Reliant Stadium in Houston, ESPN

It’s always hard to project how motivated a team like Texas A&M, which fired coach Mike Sherman before the bowl game, will come out. But the Aggies are so much more talented than the Wildcats that it shouldn’t matter. Behind quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M was seen as legitimate Big 12 championship contenders at the beginning of the year.

Pick: Texas A&M -10

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech (-2.5) vs. Utah

11:00 Saturday, Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, CBS

The Yellow Jackets are tired of hearing about their streak of six consecutive bowl game losses. It’s going to end sometime and Utah looks like a perfect victim. The Utes aren’t used to defending against the triple option.

Pick: Georgia Tech -2.5

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Illinois (-2.5) vs. UCLA

12:30 Saturday, AT&T Park in San Francisco, ESPN

This is an ugly game. UCLA had to petition the NCAA to make a bowl game because after a Pac-10 championship game loss, the Bruins had a losing record at 6-7. The two teams went a combined 10-15 against the spread this season. Both fired their coaches. The lesser of two evils might be taking the points.

Pick: UCLA +2.5

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati (+2.5) vs. Vanderbilt

12:30 Saturday, Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn., ABC

For a lesser bowl game, it doesn’t get much more intriguing than this one. Vanderbilt had a resurgent year behind new coach James Franklin. The Commodores were competitive throughout, going 9-3 against the spread. No one has figured out Cincinnati’s defense, however, which ranks first in the nation in sacks and sixth against the rush.

Pick: Cincinnati +2.5

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia (+3) vs. Aubrun

4:30 Saturday, Georgia Dome in Atlanta, ESPN

Auburn’s best player, running back Michael Dyer, is out of the game due to a suspension. The Tigers still have Onterio McCalebb, however, who is just as explosive. But Virginia hasn’t made a bowl game in three years and hasn’t won one in six years. The Cavaliers had won four in a row before a disappointing 38-0 setback to Virgina Tech in the final game of the regular season.

Pick: Virginia +3

Bowl Season Record: 9-5 (updated 12/30)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.