UNR fans celebrate after a game against UNLV on aturday, Oct. 8, 2011, at Mackay Stadium in Reno. UNR won the game 37-0 to extend its winning streak over UNLV to seven.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 2011 | midnight
Ignore those cute little graphics sports channels love to run illustrating how much farther one team traveled to reach its bowl game in comparison to their opponents.
It shouldn’t matter to bettors. Although it’s a microscopic sample size, look at what’s happened through six bowl games this season.
The team that’s come from farther away has gone 5-1 against the spread and 6-0 straight up. A full week of festivities usually precedes the actual bowl game, giving players an opportunity to adjust and get used to their new surroundings.
Although it’s unwise to fully disregard any aspect of a game, things like crowd support should factor less into handicapping during bowl season.
That’s why it should be no cause for concern that Nevada-Reno had sold only 10 tickets to its bowl game as of last week. It’s just hilarious.
Can’t blame the good folks in Reno for their indifference. The Wolf Pack’s game in Hawaii, after all, is directly competing with a performance of “The Nutcracker” at John Ascuga’s Nugget that night.
UNR’s Christmas Eve date with Southern Miss kicks off a stretch of 17 bowl games over the next week.
The next four games, which are picked below, account for some of the toughest calls so far this bowl season. The blog has cruised to a satisfactory 4-2 start, but has gone undefeated in straight-up picks.
TCU and San Diego State won their contests against Louisiana Tech and Louisiana-Lafayette, respectively, but didn’t cover.
Time to get to the picks.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: UNR (+8.5) vs. Southern Miss, over/under: 64
Saturday 5:00, Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, ESPN
It’s well established that the Wolf Pack aren’t going to have much support aside from a few of the players’ parents. But are the Southern Miss Golden Favres really going to travel much better?
Surely there’s something just as exciting taking place in Hattiesburg, Miss., on Christmas Eve. It’s doubtful Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora knows anything about it. He’s already on his way out of town, accepting the coaching post at North Carolina before the bowl game.
Fedora has done a remarkable job in guiding Southern Miss to an unforeseen Conference USA championship. But the Golden Eagles are capable of lapses, as evidenced three games ago when the lowly UAB Blazers shocked them.
Pick: UNR +8.5
AdvoCare 100 Independence Bowl: Missouri (-5.5) vs. North Carolina, over/under: 53
Monday 2:00, Independence Stadium in Shreveport, La., ESPN
Two teams that grossly underachieved this season are rewarded with a trip to the bowl season’s most exotic locale — beautiful Shreveport, La. Both teams are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, but it hasn’t always manifested itself into positive results.
Both the Tarheels and Tigers finished the season 7-5 and went 1-4 on the road. Missouri dual-threat quarterback James Franklin ranks 15th in the nation in total offense. Look for him to work more through the air here, as North Carolina’s secondary is exploitable.
Tarheels running back Gio Bernard has impressed all season, but his team hasn’t. None of the Tarheels performances were particularly inspiring. Missouri at least won an overtime game at Texas A&M.
Pick: Missouri -5.5
Little Caesars Bowl: Western Michigan (+2.5) vs. Purdue, over/under: 60.5
Tuesday 1:30, Ford Field in Detroit, ESPN
A Mid-American Conference team is allowed to post as less than a field goal underdog in a bowl game against a BCS conference foe? That’s news. The MAC has struggled mightily against the bigger conferences, particularly the Big 10.
Western Michigan is 6-31 against Big 10 opponents. But this one should be close. The Broncos have the nation’s leader in receptions, Jordan White, and underrated signal caller Alex Carder.
But the Boilermakers have defended the pass well. They’ve surrendered far more yards on the ground, an area where Western Michigan lacks any sufficient attack. Purdue gets the crazy bread.
Pick: Purdue -2.5
Mike Sanford walks off the field for the last time as UNLV head coach just after the 24-20 season-ending win against San Diego State Saturday at Sam Boyd Stadium.
Belk Bowl: Louisville (+1) vs. North Carolina State, over/under: 44.5
Tuesday 5:00, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, ESPN
Charlie Strong has quietly showed off his defensive pedigree since taking over at Louisville last year. The Cardinals were staunch on that side of the ball in 2011, giving up only 19 points per game and ranking 14th in the nation in scoring defense.
The Cardinals offense became progressively better as the season went on after Strong relieved former UNLV coach Mike Sanford of his offensive coordinator duties. Louisville went 5-1 in the second half of the season and freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had the best game of his career in the season finale against South Florida.
The fact that North Carolina State has covered in five straight bowl appearances gives reason for a slight pause. But it’s not enough.
Pick: Louisville +1
Bowl Season Record: 4-2
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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