Las Vegas Sun

May 25, 2012

Currently: 77° | Complete forecast | Log in

Democrats have nearly a 9,000-vote lead statewide in early/mail ballots, have 2 percent lead going to Nov. 2

Published Saturday, Oct. 30, 2010 | 4:12 p.m.

Updated Friday, Nov. 5, 2010 | 11:28 a.m.

Those figures come from sources tracking the early vote on the ground. Statewide vote totals put out by the secretary of state (not yet official and not including tiny Eureka County) show Democrats lead the early vote by just under 2 percentage points (43-41) – or about 3 percentage points off their 5-point registration edge. But those numbers don't include mail ballots, where Democrats have an edge and boost them just over 2 percent, I am reliably told.

In the U.S. Senate race, I think Harry Reid has a chance to win if that overall edge stays below the historical 6 percent edge the GOP has in midterms – anything more than that and it gets very dicey for him. Not impossible, but difficult.

The statewide numbers from the SOS (no mail included): Dem 162,774 (34.6 percent turnout of Dems) - GOP 156,150 (38.0 percent turnout of Republicans) - Other 60,665 (25.5 percent turnout of all others)

Rural turnout (no mail): 15,489 Dems (31.5 percent), 28,663; GOP (35.9 percent)

So a few things are clear:

Clark County was 68 percent of the early turnout (slightly more than its registration numbers) while Washoe was 18 percent (slightly under) and the rurals (14 percent) were right on.

So expect the rural and Washoe County turnout to be slightly higher than Clark on Election Day – the rurals traditionally turn out in higher overall percentages than the urban counties. One caveat: Early voting percentages are up, so Election Day may be less important. However:

1. If Harry Reid is not ahead when those first numbers pop up on Election Night – the tallies of the early and absentee votes – he probably will lose.

2.Reid may need to win Washoe County to offset losses in rural Nevada. The Democrats are down by 13,000 votes now, so it is not unreasonable to assume Reid will lose the cow counties by at least 25,000 votes. If Reid wins Clark County by 35,000 votes plus – a tall order -- he could afford to lose Washoe. But not by a lot.

3. These numbers indicate Angle probably needs a double-digit win among independent and other voters. If Reid can keep that margin in single digits, he probably will be re-elected.

And now we wait....

Discussion: 71 comments so far...

Comments are moderated by Las Vegas Sun editors. Our goal is not to limit the discussion, but rather to elevate it. Comments should be relevant and contain no abusive language. Comments that are off-topic, vulgar, profane or include personal attacks will be removed. Full comments policy. Additionally, we now display comments from trusted commenters by default. Those wishing to become a trusted commenter need to verify their identity or sign in with Facebook Connect to tie their Facebook account to their Las Vegas Sun account. For more on this change, read our story about how it works and why we did it.

Only trusted comments are displayed on this page. Untrusted comments have expired from this story.

  1. Of course, the unspoken assumption in Jon's analysis is that voters registered to a party will predominantly vote for their party's candidate. I'm not sure that's as valid as it has been in past elections - too many Democrats have expressed their anger with Harry Reid and too many Republicans have expressed support for Harry Reid to ignore the possibility that crossover votes will muddy all expectations.

    The only safe assumption to make is that whichever of them loses this election is out of politics, for good.

  2. rogich and raggio dont want this hare brained angle anywhere on the property. lets see if they can throw some votes harrys' way, ensuring angles one way bus trip back to reno. this is one helluva soap opera, folks!

  3. Tony...
    Right on, bro.

    Gregory...
    A GREAT QUESTION!
    Senator McCain badly needs a new compass; the one he's using reads like the one on the instrument panel of an airplane flying through the Bermuda Triangle. I picture him staring at it in wonder...

    Bottom Line;
    As election day approaches, EVERYONE WITH HALF A BRAIN has come out in support of Harry Reid.
    Even the RABID REPUBLICAN, Dean Heller, has finally
    admitted what most of his cohorts already have;
    Harry Reid is Nevada's greatest asset right now,
    AND WE NEED ALL THE HELP WE CAN GET.

    Angle???
    A minor candidate with major backing.
    WAY out of her league.
    Does not play well with others.
    A misfit.
    Happy Halloween to the Juice Queen.

  4. Even the Republicants do not want her. I can almost hear the moaning and groaning coming from the loser, and we all know who that is. Somebody please make all of these annoying ad campaign commercials go away.

  5. No way Angle would win with double digit margins. Even if she won, it wouldn't be by double digits. Angle will lose this one.

  6. If Reid wins, Sherman Fredrick will be so upset that he will sue himself for quoting himself in his own paper.

  7. Hey teabags! good job in Delaware and Alaska...hooray for Palin...now all we need is Palin to run against Obama!

  8. I'm a registered Republican, and I voted last week. I voted for Harry Reid -- there is NO WAY that I would cast my vote for a dangerous, extremist, incompetent lunatic like Sharron Angle, whose best tactic to try and attract votes is to run and hide.

    Don't get conned folks -- DON'T VOTE FOR ANGLE!!

  9. renee: the republicans on wall street didnt flinch a bit when uncle sugar started throwing money at them. your good buddy george w. bush started the ball rolling on that one. the state of nevada voted for bush TWICE and look at you now! you reap what you sow. " dont walk away renee......."

  10. The story that most people are passing over is that almost all the major Republicans in Nevada are behind Sen. Reid. There are Republicans supporting Ms. Angle. Sahara Palin, and Sen. McCain most are the most notable, but wasn't it the same group of Angle supporters that had such disgust for out-of-state interlopers supporting Sen. Reid?

  11. "Senator Reid has never won any election by a landslide."

    That is correct. He hasn't, but he keeps winning. Sen Reid knows he's not running in a beauty contest (oh wait, that's Shara Palin), but as one of two Nevada Senators in Washington.

    When I look at the ads Ms. Angle puts out it seems like she is more interested in having the perks that Sen Reid has, like the condo, the Senate pension and the power of being the Senate Majority Leader than she is interested in making Nevada the best state in the Union.

    Wasn't there something in the Bible about coveting the possessions of another? I wonder if she's read that part?

Post a comment

Commenting requires registration.

Comments are moderated by Las Vegas Sun editors. Our goal is not to limit the discussion, but rather to elevate it. Comments should be relevant and contain no abusive language. Comments that are off-topic, vulgar, profane or include personal attacks will be removed. Full comments policy.

If you would like to submit your comment as a letter to the editor, you may submit it here.

Most Popular