It’s the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

Monday, May 18, 2009 | noon

One of my favorite rock bands, R.E.M., recorded a song in 1988 titled “It’s The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine).” R.E.M. was ahead of its time. This song is even more appropriate today, 21 years later.

There are many signs that our lives will never be the same again. While our society has gone through many transitions, from the industrial revolution to the machine age to the information age, the major change we are experiencing is the first major global transition since the invention and widespread use of the Internet. Never before has the world been this closely connected. If we have learned anything from the Internet world, it is that change happens quickly.

What can we expect from the new era we are entering? I don’t have a crystal ball, but this is what I am “seeing”:

The world will continue to move exponentially faster. There were more than 2.7 billion searches this month alone on Google. Makes you wonder how we accessed information B.G. (Before Google). It took more than 13 years for the television to reach market penetration of 50 million sets. It took three years for the iPod to reach 50 million customers and Facebook signed up 50 million users in just two years. What is the next “thing”? Online social networks will continue to expand, making it simpler and faster to connect to one’s friends and family. Texting is instantaneous and has replaced the need for most phone calls. A recent wireless industry trade association reports that cell phone customers sent more than 15 billion texts in one month -- June 2008 -- up from 28.8 billion the entire year before. Because of its speed and relatively low cost, texting will continue to grow and outpace cell phone usage at a remarkable rate.

The amount of information will continue to grow faster than we can use it. Technical information is doubling every two years and is expected to double again in six months. By the end of 2010, it is expected to double every 72 hours. Information is growing and changing so rapidly that by the time a four-year college student reaches his third year, most of what he learned in his first year will be outdated.

One of the shadow sides of the Internet is that it has become increasingly more difficult to determine fact from fiction. With the amount of information growing so rapidly, such determination will only become even more difficult. I remember when newspaper reporters used to be required to verify their stories with three sources. How many sources will it take in the future to make a story believable? Because anyone can post to the Internet it will be increasingly difficult to separate fact from fiction.

Businesses will have new customers and employees. A recent survey showed that one in four people employed has been on the job less than a year, and half of all workers have been in their jobs less than five years. If this trend continues, our businesses are going to need to adapt to a growing transient workforce. Systems and processes will become even more important for business to maintain consistency. Our future customers will be less local and more global. They will work in new fields such as e-business, organic farming and nanotechnology -- fields that didn’t exist just 10 years ago.

Major technical jobs/tasks will be exported. It is estimated that more than 3.3 million U.S. technical jobs will be exported to India by 2015. India graduated almost three times the number of college students (3.1 million) as the United States (1.3 million) in 2006. Add to that India’s lower cost of living and its 24/7 workdays and it is not surprising that many U.S. businesses will outsource technical tasks and have them performed faster and cheaper than the way they were traditionally completed. Coordinating these exported and outsourced jobs will take very different types of management styles and skills.

Small, isolated farms will sprout up. Consistent with the green movement, people will return to the land. Many will have other businesses and the Internet will allow them to run these businesses away from the traditional economic centers. These farmers/businessmen will grow their own organic food, work fewer hours in their businesses than previously and enjoy a higher quality of life. They may run institutes and teach others how to live off the land responsibly and how to run productive and engaging businesses. Many will generate their own power on-site and will live simpler, more productive lives.

We will become more dependent upon a world economy, but less dependent on product sales. The world’s financial markets will become even more interconnected. Tourism will grow as people begin to develop more free time and disposable income. Businesses will connect with customers across geographic lines, and traveling to conduct business with these customers will be combined with leisure time. Consumption of material goods will slow. Even though the electronics industry will continue to advance rapidly, the changes will be less noticeable in a technically savvy world. Dependence upon the automobile will decline and automakers will scale back production and create longer- lasting, more efficient vehicles. With a return to the land and a simpler life, people will resist buying into the next fad.

Think about the changes that you have seen during your career. What lies ahead very well could be more significant than all the previous changes we’ve experienced.

It is always risky to write a column such as this one. Either my stated scenarios will mildly come to fruition or they will crash and burn. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: It’s the end of the world as we know it. And either way, I feel fine.

I’d like to hear from you:

• Do you see any signs that would support these stated scenarios? Any that point in other directions?

Until next time …

Craig

Author’s Note: Many of the facts and figures presented above come from a video titled “Did You Know/Shift Happens 2.0” prepared by Karl Fisch and Scott McLeod. Other facts and figures were derived from the book “A Whole New Mind” by Daniel Pink.