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Sun, Jan 20, 2008 (2 a.m.)
There were a few surprises on the Republican side of Nevada's caucuses on Jan. 19, but Mitt Romney wasn't one of them. The former Massachusetts governor — who had done extensive campaigning in Nevada, and had extremely strong support from his Mormon ties in Utah — won just as easily as he was expected to. But things spiced up slightly for second place when Ron Paul edged out John McCain.
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I think the characterization of Paul's second place finish as being "spiced up slightly" is a gross understatement. After all the polls had Paul in either last or next to last, I think beating out Giuliani, McCain, and Huckabee was a big surprise. And greatly questions the validity of the polls reported in local papers. One might imagine the polls were more of a tool to shape outcomes.
How many people do not vote for a candidate because they have been told by the polls and by local newspapers that the candidate cannot win? Twenty percent? Thirty? Surely the polls and newspaper articles have some effect on some of the voters, right? How could the newspapers and polls have been so wrong on Paul? Intentionally?
Who won Nevada's Republican Straw Poll two weeks prior? It was Paul. And yet Paul polled at the bottom??? How many people knew the outcome of NV's Straw Poll? How many read the local newspapers?