NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of UConn vs. Purdue

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, April 8, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Donovan Clingan stood out as the most impactful two-way player on the floor in the night cap of Saturday’s national semifinal games in Glendale, Ariz., just as Connecticut’s 7-foot-2 monolith has so often this season.

Alabama struggled to navigate Clingan down low when it drove on offense, especially as the game went on, and had no counter when the Huskies got the ball to the sophomore on the other end. Clingan scored 18 points with four blocks while going 8-for-14 from the field as part of the Huskies’ 86-72 win over the Crimson Tide as closing 10-point favorites.

It wasn’t an ideal result for the NCAA Tournament by the odds column, and not just because it meant a losing bet on Alabama +12. I also advocated building a Final Four Most Outstanding Player portfolio fading Clingan, and that now looks misguided.

Clingan comes into the national championship game at 6:20 p.m. tonight at State Farm Stadium against Purdue as the favorite to win the award at +180 (i.e. risking $100 to win $180) at BetMGM.

The Boilermakers’ Zach Edey follows at +210 with a trio of Clingan’s teammates next in the odds — Stephon Castle at +375, Tristen Newton at +650 and Cam Spencer at 11-to-1.

I locked in Edey at +240 and Newton at 5-to-1 before Saturday’s game and promised to revisit today. But there’s nothing really to revisit with how the semifinal games went.

I’ve got to ride this out.

Newton played well against Alabama but didn’t do anything splashy, finishing with 12 points and nine assists, to put him at a disadvantage to at least Clingan and Castle, who scored a team-high 21 points. Edey is in good shape if Purdue can pull the upset, but the market is moving against it with the Boilermakers mostly a 6.5-point underdog to the Huskies after opening at +5.5.

Do I think the shift is justified?

Read below for my final breakdown and pick of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The line is the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record for picking every tournament game stands at 36-28-2 (12-13-1 on plays, 13-4 on leans and 11-11-1 on guesses).

No. 1 seed Connecticut -7 vs. No. 1 seed Purdue, over/under: 145.5. The saving grace for the Most Outstanding Player bets is Clingan hasn’t faced anyone like the 7-foot-4 Edey. He’s unaccustomed to playing against someone bigger than him, let alone someone as skilled as the back-to-back Naismith Player of the Year.

Purdue’s path to victory looks pretty evident — let Edey do his thing and supplement him with its sharpshooting on the perimeter. The Boilermakers rank second in the nation in three-point field-goal percentage.

It’s a singular path, though, and that’s the problem. Connecticut has several, if not endless, routes. The Huskies’ biggest asset during their 11-game winning and covering streak in the tournament dating back to last year has been their versatility.

It’s something coach Dan Hurley started to hone during last year’s national championship run and has really maximized this season.

Connecticut can win through Clingan in the post. It can win through Newton’s playmaking. It can win through Castle’s attacking. It can win through the shooting ability of Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban.

The Huskies are playing too well to pick against outright at the moment, but the point spread is a different conversation. And there’s some evidence that their point spreads are becoming too high.

A flood of big money came in on Alabama right before the Final Four game came off the board, trimming two points off the line. It ultimately didn’t pay off but Alabama covered the vast majority of the game and looked like the right side until Clingan wore it down.

The initial line I made on the national championship game was Connecticut -6. After incorporating more statistics and regressing to other projections, I adjusted to Connecticut -5.

A two-point difference in a semi-key range of numbers would typically spur a bet on the underdog. But it’s just so difficult to bet against Connecticut right now.

Purdue is the only side worth considering at the number, but I just haven’t been able to actually back them on the point spread yet. The Edey award future is more or less a bet on Purdue to pull off the shocking upset, so I’ll just sit back, enjoy a great matchup and hope the underdog gives itself a chance.

Lean: Purdue +7.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or