College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 4 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The Pac-12 Conference was always set up for a memorable swan song this season, but the league is flying even higher than anticipated through the first month of the college football season.

The Pac-12 is threatening the much-ballyhooed SEC’s long-reigning spot amid the conference hierarchy according to advanced metrics like the SP+ ratings. The betting market tells a similar story, as the Pac-12 now has three of the top 10 teams in future odds to win the national championship (USC at 8-to-1, Washington at 25-to-1 and Oregon at 25-to-1) at the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas.

That undefeated trio is a combined 8-1 against the spread through each of their first three games, with the only non-cover being USC’s 56-28 season-opening win over San Jose State as 31-point favorites. The Pac-12 as a whole has only two teams with a losing against the spread record — the worst two teams in Stanford (1-2) and Arizona State (0-3).

Colorado was priced among that group coming into the season but has turned into the talk of the sports world with coach Deion Sanders’ hot 3-0 straight-up, 2-1 against the spread debut. The Buffaloes' trip to Eugene, Oregon, to take on the Ducks Saturday night might be the Pac-12’s Week 4 headliner, but there are also big tilts pairing UCLA and Utah, and Oregon State and Washington State.

It’s the start of league play out west, and while that might have gotten overshadowed by big games elsewhere like Ohio State vs. Notre Dame and Florida State vs. Clemson in past years, the Pac-12 is now part of Week 4’s massive appeal. The conference is on its way out, but it’s not going quietly.

Read below for picks against the spread on every Week 4 Football Bowl Subdivision game. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game stands at a disappointing 64-86-1 (20-22 on plays, 20-26 on leans and 24-38-1 on guesses).

Big Games

Oklahoma -15 at Cincinnati, over/under: 60. Both these teams are significantly better than they were pegged coming into the season, though Cincinnati’s ascent comes with a caveat. The Bearcats are much better offensively but may be every bit as poor defensively considering they gave up a combined 52 points to Miami (Ohio) and Pittsburgh the last two weeks. Oklahoma has taken a major step forward on both sides of the ball, one big enough to slightly outweigh natural concerns about laying a big number on the road.  Guess: Oklahoma -15.

Florida State -2.5 at Clemson, over/under: 55. Clemson wasn’t outplayed nearly as badly as the final score of its Week 1 28-7 loss to Duke indicates and may have acclimated to new coordinator Garrett Riley’s offense since then. Florida State looks far more talented early in the season, but it hasn’t won in Death Valley in a decade (its 2013 national championship team was the last to do it) and quarterback Jordan Travis is dealing with an arm injury. My fair price on this game is a pick’em. Lean: Clemson +2.5.

Ole Miss +7 at Alabama, over/under: 57. It’s not getting much attention because all their marquee players are fine but Ole Miss is awfully banged up overall — especially among its receiver corps and starting defense. This line didn’t budge when coach Nick Saban announced Jalen Milroe would be his starting quarterback for the rest of the season earlier this week, a confirmation worth at least a half-point. Saban’s teams have typically bounced back with big performances whenever they’ve been doubted, and none of them have ever been doubted as much as this year’s squad at the moment.  Play: Alabama -7.

Colorado +21 at Oregon, over/under: 71. I’m kicking myself for not betting anything on the widely-available Oregon -14 lines that were posted at several sports books over the last couple weeks. No matter what the Buffaloes have done so far, this is a mismatch. Depth was always Colorado’s biggest issue and it’s already being tested with the team having played the fifth-most snaps in the nation and losing a number of starters along the way headlined by two-way superstar Travis Hunter.  Guess: Oregon -21.

UCLA +5 at Utah, over/under: 51. Utah was extremely fortunate to win both of their first two games statistically, against Florida and Baylor, and wasn’t even that impressive in a 31-7 win over Weber State as 27.5-point favorites last week. UCLA is far better than all those teams, as quarterback was its only question coming into the season and freshman Dante Moore has seized the job. Even if Utah counterpart Cam Rising makes his debut, the Bruins’ experienced defense is no warm-up opponent. Play: UCLA +5.

Oregon State -3 at Washington State, over/under: 56. Washington State’s much-lauded offense wasn’t all that high-flying against the only decent defense its faced so far, gaining 4.8 yards per play against Wisconsin two weeks ago. The Cougars won that contest 31-22 largely because they recovered all three of the game’s fumbles. That can’t be expected to repeat against another opponent that should have them outmatched talent-wise. It’s not huge value, but the Beavers should be giving an extra half-point over the key number of three here. Lean: Oregon State -3.

Ohio State -3 at Notre Dame, over/under: 55.5. The Irish have sizable edges at quarterback (with Sam Hartman vs. Ohio State’s still-settling-in Kyle McCord) and up front (where their defensive front should test a green Buckeyes’ offensive line problems) that give them a real chance at their first win in the series since 1936. But Ohio State is better, and particularly faster, everywhere else. Ohio State -3.5 was an appropriate number, and drifting off that price has left only one way to look on the point spread. Guess: Ohio State -3.

Iowa +15 at Penn State, over/under: 40. Illinois gifted Penn State five turnovers last week in a 30-13 victory as 14-point favorites for the latter. At the very least, Iowa won’t make it that easy. The Hawkeyes’ defense is perennially one of the best in the nation and is more likely to be the unit claiming takeaways in what will be a test for highly-talented-though-still-learning Nittany Lions sophomore quarterback Drew Allar.  Lean: Iowa +15.

Big Plays

SMU +6.5 at TCU, over/under: 63.5. The Horned Frogs have given no indication that they are anywhere close to the team that reached the national championship game last year but they continue to be priced a such. SMU is the Texas school that looks significantly improved as it fields a group of skill players just as strong as any in the Big 12, or the Mustangs’ future home in the ACC.  Play: SMU +6.5.

Kentucky -13 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 50. The spot isn’t ideal as the Commodores figure to make tweaks and come out with a better performance than last week when they got upset at UNLV, but the talent gap might be too much to overcome. The new-look Wildcats appear to be the second-best team in the SEC East (behind Georgia) and it’s smart to keep betting them until the market catches up.  Play: Kentucky -13.

Georgia Southern -6.5 at Ball State, over/under: 59.5. Ball State is strong in the trenches, though no one would know it considering it had to open the season with non-conference squash matches at Kentucky and Georgia. It should start to come across more now with longtime MAC standout running back Marquez Cooper transferring in from Kent State and ready to go off against more comparable opposition.  Play: Ball State +6.5.

North Carolina -7 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 50. North Carolina has wildly exceeded all expectations as star quarterback Drake Maye has seen no perceptible drop-off with a switch in offensive coordinators. Pittsburgh has appreciably fallen since last year with no semblance of an offense as new quarterback Phil Jurkovec is completing less than 50% of his passes. South Point has oddly refused to come off the 7, which is enough to draw me in.   Play: North Carolina -7.

California +21.5 at Washington, over/under: 59.5. Fading Washington, which has won all three of its games by more than 30 points while covering, isn’t comfortable at the moment but this is much more of a bet on California. The Golden Bears have a real offense for the first time in recent memory, no matter whether Sam Jackson or Ben Finley is playing quarterback. BetMGM is offering the extra half-point hook, which could be important given the possibility of the Bears driving for a backdoor cover.  Play: California +21.5.

New Mexico State +2.5 at Hawaii, over/under: 58.5. The Warriors are already the more talented team, and the spot also favors them here. New Mexico State has to travel to the Big Island off a win in its biggest game of the year, in its rivalry with New Mexico, and should have trouble with Hawaii’s revitalized and potentially explosive passing game. Play: Hawaii -2.5.

Other Games

Play: Eastern Michigan +6.5 at Jacksonville State

Play: Kent State +28 at Fresno State

Play: Stanford +12.5 vs. Arizona

Play: Southern Miss -6.5 at Arkansas State

Play: Michigan State +8 vs. Maryland

Play: Arkansas +18 vs. LSU

Lean: Florida -28 vs. Charlotte

Lean: Mississippi State +7 at South Carolina

Lean: Northern Illinois -4 vs. Tulsa

Lean: Louisville -14 vs. Boston College

Lean: Air Force -3.5 at San Jose State

Lean: NC State -9 at Virginia

Lean: Louisiana -8.5 vs. Buffalo

Lean: Syracuse -13.5 vs. Army

Lean: Bowling Green +13 at Ohio

Lean: Wisconsin -6 at Purdue

Lean: Boise State -7 at San Diego State

Lean: BYU +9.5 at Kansas

Lean: Wake Forest -3.5 vs. Georgia Tech

Lean: Houston -12 vs. Sam Houston

Lean: UNR +17 at Texas State

Lean: Kansas State -4.5 vs. UCF

Lean: Louisiana Tech +20 at Nebraska

Lean: UTEP +2.5 vs. UNLV

Lean: Georgia State +6.5 at Coastal Carolina

Guess: Marshall -5 vs. Virginia Tech

Guess: Indiana -15.5 vs. Akron

Guess: West Virginia +6 vs. Texas Tech

Guess: Northwestern +11.5 vs. Minnesota

Guess: Duke -22 at Connecticut

Guess: Central Michigan +15 at South Alabama

Guess: Miami -23 at Temple

Guess: Rutgers +24 at Michigan

Guess: Texas A&M -7.5 vs. Auburn

Guess: Rice -2 at South Florida

Guess: Appalachian State +2.5 at Wyoming

Guess: Texas -15 at Baylor

Guess: Liberty -10.5 at Florida International

Guess: Missouri -5 vs. Memphis

Guess: Georgia -41.5 vs. UAB

Guess: Western Kentucky +3.5 at Troy

Guess: Western Michigan +21 at Toledo

Guess: Middle Tennessee -2 vs. Colorado State

Guess: Utah State +6.5 vs. James Madison

Guess: Arizona State +35 vs. USC

Guess: New Mexico +3 at Massachusetts

Guess: Tennessee -20 vs. UTSA

Guess: Oklahoma State +3.5 at Iowa State

Guess: Illinois -14 vs. Florida Atlantic

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or