College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 3 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Florida State picked up the biggest win of Week 1, pulling away to upset LSU 45-24. Texas claimed the biggest prize in Week 2, knocking off favored Alabama 34-24.

The Seminoles and Longhorns are therefore two of the biggest risers in the futures market with both sitting in the top five in odds to win the national championship at the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas. Florida State is 8-to-1 — behind only Georgia at +225 (i.e. risking $100 to win $225) and Michigan at 4-to-1 — and Texas sits at 10-to-1.

College football has always been cyclical, and the return of the two traditional powerhouse programs to the top of the betting odds could be interpreted as the latest example. Both won a national championship within the last 18 years but had more recently fallen down into college football’s extensive middle class.

For now, it looks like they’ve worked their way back up. Similar to their title prices, oddsmakers are giving a great chance for each to reach the final four-team College Football Playoff this year with Florida State at +115 and Texas at +120.

There’s little chance either gets derailed this week against a pair of overmatched opponents in Boston College for Florida State and Wyoming for Texas. Moneyline prices imply better than a 96% chance that Florida State and Texas improve to 3-0.

That level of probability isn’t all that uncommon for college football’s Week 3, which is mostly a slate of mismatches. Some bemoan a less exciting schedule, but bettors shouldn’t as there are always moneymaking opportunities.

Let’s try to spot them below with handicaps for every Football Bowl Subdivision game on the betting board. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game stands at 43-53-1 (15-12 on plays, 15-15 on leans and 13-26-1 on guesses) on the season after a rough Week 1.

Big Games

LSU +10 at Mississippi State, over/under: 53. Mississippi State’s new run-heavy offense limits its ceiling long-term, but also shortens games and gives the Bulldogs a better chance to hang with the SEC powers. It’s a good thing here, as LSU is far from a finished product and shouldn’t be expected to overwhelm a divisional opponent in its first true road game of the season. Play: Mississippi State +10.

Penn State -14.5 at Illinois, over/under: 48.5. Hyped Nittany Lions sophomore quarterback Drew Allar has lived up to the hype early in the season, and there might not be much the Illini can do to slow the roll he's on. Illinois’ secondary is a sieve, having struggled mightily in a pair of non-covers against Toledo and Kansas to start the season. Lean: Penn State -14.5.

South Carolina +27 at Georgia, over/under: 54.5. The Bulldogs have beaten the Gamecocks by at least this many points in each of the last two years, and the gap in roster quality may have since grown with the latter having bled some talent. Georgia has looked relatively pedestrian in wins over Tennessee-Martin and Ball State to start the year, but it’s likely just been ramping up to this conference opener. Play: Georgia -27.

Minnesota +7.5 at North Carolina, over/under: 50. Minnesota has the best defense North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye has seen so far this season by far. The Gophers’ offense, on the other hand, is a slog to watch but grades out higher analytically than aesthetically. This number shouldn’t be higher than a touchdown. Lean: Minnesota +7.5.

Washington -16 at Michigan State, over/under: 57.5. The Spartans are in turmoil with the sexual-harassment accusations and subsequent suspension of coach Mel Tucker, with two points having been tacked to the line as a result. That seems fair but it’s hard to predict how teams respond to such situations of upheaval. Guess: Washington -16.

Tennessee -7 at Florida, over/under: 59. Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton’s arm talent tantalizes, but he’s too inconsistent and prone to a big mistake or two per game. He’s a big drop-off from outgoing starter Hendon Hooker, and the game at Florida is the first real opportunity for that drop to be illustrated. Play: Florida +7.

Pittsburgh pick’em at West Virginia, over/under: 50. Cincinnati stunned Pittsburgh with a 27-20 upset win that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated last week, but what if the Bearcats aren’t that bad with new coach Scott Satterfield’s army of transfers? That’s at least possible, and if it’s the case, then this a major overreaction to a line that would have seen the Panthers laying a touchdown or more coming into the season. Play: Pittsburgh pick’em.

Colorado State +23 at Colorado, over/under: 59. Speaking of transfer influxes, Colorado coach Deion Sanders brought in a record haul this offseason that has made his team next-to-impossible to quantify. The Buffaloes will still probably be outmanned in league play because of their disadvantage in the trenches and on defense but there will be better opportunities to fade the excitement on them with actual bets later. Guess: Colorado State +23.

Big Plays

Utah State +9 at Air Force, over/under: 46.5. Air Force’s paltry offensive showing and relatively narrow 13-3 win over Sam Houston as two-touchdown favorites last week seems to be reason for this week’s line dropping under double digits. That’s not a reasonable adjustment as the Bearkats, though highly limited offensively, have a great defense — something the Aggies sorely lack. Play: Air Force -9.

Liberty -4 at Buffalo, over/under: 55. The betting market tends to overreact when a Football Bowl Subdivision team loses to a lower-level opponent, like Buffalo did 40-37 to Fordham last week. The Rams carved up the Bulls through the air, but the loss could be a wake-up call and the Flames haven’t shown enough to be a clear road favorite against comparable opposition. Play: Buffalo +4.

Northwestern +19 at Duke, over/under: 48.5. Duke has been the luckiest turnover team in the nation dating back to last season, including in the 28-7 season-opening win over Clemson that now has it getting far too much credit. The line was Northwestern -10 in this series a year ago in what naturally turned into a competitive affair largely decided by Duke recovering all three of the game's fumbles to win 31-23. Expect another tight contest this time around. Play: Northwestern +19.

James Madison +2 at Troy, over/under: 47.5. James Madison took the Sun Belt Conference by storm in its first FBS season a year ago and probably would have won the league if it was eligible under NCAA rules. But a lot of the offensive talent that led the Dukes to such a breakout is now gone to create a mismatch against the actual defending conference champions. Play: Troy -2.

North Texas +4.5 at Louisiana Tech, over/under: 68. North Texas sits 123^rd in the nation in both defensive expected points added per play and yards per play allowed, and somehow, it feels like its rating should be even worse. The Mean Green can’t stop anyone, let alone the Bulldogs who have a few proven offensive veterans including quarterback Hank Bachmeier and wide receiver Smoke Harris. Play: Louisiana Tech -4.5.

TCU -7.5 at Houston, over/under: 64.5. If there were betting pools for “first coached fired” like there are in the NFL for college football, then Houston coach Dana Holgorsen would have to be near the top currently. There’s a lot of tumult with the Cougars, which were lucky to beat a similarly-underachieving UTSA side in Week 1 before falling into a 28-0 hole against rival Rice in an overtime loss in Week 2. Play: TCU -7.5.

Other Games

Play: Syracuse -2 at Purdue

Play: Alabama -32 at South Florida

Play: Toledo -8 vs. San Jose State

Play: New Mexico -1 vs. New Mexico State

Play: Arizona -17 vs. UTEP

Lean: Arizona State +3.5 vs. Fresno State

Lean: Ohio State -27.5 vs. Western Kentucky

Lean: Maryland -14 vs. Virginia

Lean: Virginia Tech +7 at Rutgers

Lean: Ole Miss -20 vs. Georgia Tech

Lean: Wake Forest -13.5 at Old Dominion

Lean: Memphis -14.5 vs. Navy

Lean: Southern Miss +13 vs. Tulane

Lean: Charlotte +8 vs. Georgia State

Lean: Kentucky -25 vs. Akron

Lean: Oklahoma State -7 vs. South Alabama

Lean: Cincinnati -14 vs. Miami (Ohio)

Lean: Arkansas -7.5 vs. BYU

Lean: UAB -2 vs. Louisiana

Guess: UNR +29 vs. Kansas

Guess: Notre Dame -34 vs. Central Michigan

Guess: Oregon State -24 vs. San Diego State

Guess: Iowa State -2 at Ohio

Guess: Kansas State -5 at Missouri

Guess: Oklahoma -27 at Tulsa

Guess: Appalachian State -9 vs. East Carolina

Guess: Eastern Michigan -8 vs. Massachusetts

Guess: Georgia Southern +19.5 at Wisconsin

Guess: Vanderbilt -3.5 at UNLV

Guess: Hawaii +38 at Oregon

Guess: UTSA -8 vs. Army

Guess: Nebraska -10.5 vs. Northern Illinois

Guess: Texas -28.5 vs. Wyoming

Guess: Bowling Green +41 at Michigan

Guess: Boston College +26.5 vs. Florida State

Guess: Connecticut -8 vs. Florida International

Guess: Florida Atlantic +24 at Clemson

Guess: Indiana +10 vs. Louisville

Guess: Texas A&M -36 vs. UL Monroe

Guess: Iowa -28.5 vs. Western Michigan

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or