Betting the big game: What to consider before taking the Patriots or Falcons

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Jan. 29, 2017 | 2 a.m.

It seemed as if everyone in Nevada held a betting position on the Super Bowl last year, when gamblers wagered a record-high $132.5 million on the game.

And that record is expected to fall when the New England Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons as 3-point favorites in Super Bowl 51 on Feb. 5 in Houston. Here’s why you should believe in, and doubt, both teams’ chances to cash in the biggest betting event of the year.

Why to bet on the Patriots

It’s simple — the Patriots are the best team in the NFL. In fairness, the best team doesn’t always, or even often, win the Super Bowl. But the gap between New England and the rest of the league is particularly wide.

The Patriots have lost just once since quarterback Tom Brady returned from a four-game suspension, and that was only by a touchdown to Seattle in a game where they led in the fourth quarter. New England is an absurd 15-3 against the spread, which is the NFL’s best betting record in the past 12 years.

The Patriots were the only team in the league to rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense in terms of yards per play. Defensive captain Dont’a Hightower was quietly as lethal at linebacker as Brady was at quarterback, leading a unit that’s only improved as the season has progressed.

Why to bet against the Patriots

The statistics the Patriots put up ring at least a little hollow upon further inspection. The main reason New England looks historically efficient is because it faced a historically inefficient slate of opponents.

The Patriots had the easiest schedule in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, the sport’s pre-eminent advanced statistical metric. They notched their best win by crushing the Steelers, 36-17, as 6-point favorites in the AFC Championship Game, but even that performance may have benefited from a little luck.

Running back Le’Veon Bell — the focal point of the Steelers’ offense — went down in the first quarter, and the team was never the same. New England’s other playoff win, 34-16 against feeble Houston as a 17-point favorite, was far less inspiring.

There’s no doubt Atlanta was more impressive in the playoffs, beating Seattle and Green Bay by a combined 39 points. The Patriots aren’t prepared for a team of the Falcons’ caliber.

Why to bet on the Falcons

Forget the whole “defense wins championships” nonsense. Analytically, there’s nothing more valuable in the NFL than a dominant offense.

Atlanta’s offense is one of the most dominant ever. Think Tom Brady has looked good this year? The Falcons’ Matt Ryan has been much better, throwing for 1.1 yards more per pass despite nearly 100 more attempts. New England also doesn’t have any players who come close to matching the production of Atlanta running back Devonta Freeman, who averages 4.8 yards per carry, or receiver Julio Jones, who has 28 catches of more than 20 yards.

In the eight games since their bye week late in the season, the Falcons have averaged 37.5 points. They have nearly an identical point differential to the Patriots during that span, plus-136 to plus-137, despite a significantly more difficult schedule.

New England might have been better on the year as a whole, but Atlanta has peaked at the right time.

Why to bet against the Falcons

Even in an age of the NFL where the rules are slanted toward offense, defense still matters. Nowhere has that been more evident than in the Super Bowl.

Teams with a decided defensive advantage, the 2015 Denver Broncos and 2013 Seattle Seahawks, have won two out of the past three championships. The Patriots have every bit as large of an edge on that side of the ball this year.

New England coach Bill Belichick is renowned for finding and attacking any major weakness, and Atlanta certainly has one. The Falcons struggle to contain running backs both up the middle and in the open field.

To exploit the Falcons, Brady might not even need to do much besides hand off to bulldozer LeGarrette Blount and throw swing passes to race car Dion Lewis.

The Falcons’ profile sets up similarly to the 2013 Denver Broncos, who reached the Super Bowl by breaking offensive records but just got by on defense. The Broncos’ 43-8 loss to the Seahawks is a hard image to shake.

My pick: Patriots -3

The best way to bet this game is probably to identify a few proposition wagers and fire on those, because the point spread looks spot-on. So therefore, I’ll follow an old rule of not going against Belichick unless the line is totally out of whack. Belichick has a way of defying the odds, as the Patriots are 174-124-5 against the spread under his watch. That’s a remarkable record, and now he’ll have a remarkable five Super Bowl victories in 15 years to boot.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.