Could the UNLV football team win four of its initial five games? My prediction

By Ray Brewer (contact)

Saturday, July 30, 2016 | 2 a.m.

At one point this week while covering the Mountain West football media days, when my emotions clearly got the best of me, I predicted to a group of reporter colleagues that UNLV would finish with a 9-3 record and go undefeated in home games.

This from a program with four all-time bowl appearances and a losing record in 11 of the past 12 seasons. Cue the laughter from the group.

But I’m a local and UNLV is my alma mater. I always inflate their win total by a few games. And coach Tony Sanchez is the real deal, right?

I had just finished talking with Sanchez and his optimism convinced me this season could be different. UNLV is a perennial two-win program and has never played in consecutive bowl games, so finishing six games over .500 could be considered crazy talk. The Rebels, after all, were picked by media to finish fifth in the league’s six-team Pacific Division.

But that vote, too, deserves laughter. The Rebels may not be a nine-win team, but they aren’t going to finish near the bottom of the standings.

Sanchez rattled off the names of a few players and how each has become bigger and stronger. He indicated the Rebels have a few studs. More important, they have player depth — something they lacked in a 3-9 season in 2015 when they lost winnable game after winnable game to close the season.

“We looked tired. As much as we showed energy, we lacked a little bit of it,” Sanchez said about the end of his inaugural season. “The end of the season was the truth. Early in the year, we convinced our kids they were better than they were. We played with a lot of heart and a lot of emotion early in the year, but that only lasts so long.”

Flipping the record, from 3-9 to 9-3, won’t happen. But the Rebels will have a chance to win nine games, only facing impossible-to-win scenarios in road games at UCLA, San Diego State and Boise State. That means getting to six wins and a bowl berth is realistic. Very realistic.

Victories should come against Jackson State, Idaho, Fresno State, Hawaii and Wyoming. We’ll see how far the program has come in games against Central Michigan, Colorado State, San Jose State and UNR. If the Rebels somehow beat Central Michigan, whose quarterback Cooper Rush is the best in the Mid-American Conference, they would likely sport a 3-1 record heading into league play Oct. 1 against Fresno State. And, they should crush Fresno State.

Mark my words: The trip to Central Michigan in mid-September will define the season. A victory against an opponent with similar qualities — mid-major league, limited budget — would put UNLV in a position to be 4-1. At 4-1, you can slip-up along the way in league and still reach a bowl. A loss against Central Michigan and the Rebels would enter league play 2-2 and needing to win all the games they are supposed to — something, as was painfully obvious last year, that isn’t a given.

Somehow, they lost at Wyoming in the season finale. Somehow, they couldn’t finish against Fresno State. But, that was then ...

“We are in a good spot right now,” Sanchez said. “We will see 12 weeks from now (at the end of the season), but we feel good about (our chances) now.”

The Rebels' fate will be determined by the performance at one position: Quarterback. Poor quarterback play cost them victories last season, and neither returner Kurt Palandech nor junior college transfer Johnny Stanton separated themselves from the other in spring practice. Both, at times, looked shaky.

Either Palandech, who struggled last season in the passing game, especially on downfield throws, starts slinging the ball around like Super Bowl winner Kurt Warner, or Stanton should emerge in the competition to start. Stanton, whose struggles in the spring were credited to becoming familiar with the playbook, appears to have the credentials to lead UNLV to a winning season.

He was all-world at Saddleback Junior College last season in being named the California Community College Football Coaches Association Offensive Player of the Year. He passed for 3,168 yards and 25 touchdowns, and rushed for another 700 yards and 12 scores. It’s a major talent upgrade under center for the Rebels.

Sanchez is right. His team is better across the board. Couldn’t have been worse, actually.

Whether it is developing a bigger or stronger player, especially on the line, or having a more-talented player ready to take the reins at a certain position, the Rebels are much improved. Will that translate into nine wins? Unlikely.

My prediction Don’t be surprised if the most important game on the schedule — Nov. 26 at home against UNR — carries a little extra significance. My best guess is the Rebels will enter the game with a 5-6 record and needing a win to earn a bowl berth.

Ray Brewer can be reached at 702-990-2662 or [email protected]. Follow Ray on Twitter at twitter.com/raybrewer21