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UFC 170 breakdown, betting odds and picks

Two fighters will lose for the first time ever at the end of the night

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L.E. Baskow

UFC 170 fighter Ronda Rousey signs a poster for a fan at Mandalay Bay on Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2014.

UFC 170: Fighter Workouts

UFC 170 fighter Daniel Cormier Rosendo Sanchez spars with his trainer at Mandalay Bay on Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2014. Launch slideshow »

The UFC is crossing off a couple of firsts with this weekend’s pay-per-view card.

The historic relevance of two Olympic medalists fighting for a championship in the main event, and a third Olympian in the other headlining bout, got company when Rashad Evans came down with an injury last week. With Patrick Cummins filling in for Evans against Daniel Cormier in the light heavyweight co-main event, UFC 170 now features four undefeated fighters in the top two contests for the first time ever.

Not all undefeated records were created equal, however, as the fights aren’t seen as competitive as the rare nature makes them appear. Women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey is the shortest favorite of her UFC career, but she’s still minus-400 (risking $4 to win $1) with challenger Sara McMann coming back at plus-325 (risking $1 to win $3.25).

Cormier is three times as big of a favorite at minus-1200 with the unfamiliar Cummins offered at plus-800. Cummins joked that he would bet himself if he had any money, and one of the members of the Las Vegas Sun’s picks panel took his advice even though no one took McMann.

Check below to find a breakdown and betting odds on every fight at UFC 170 along with picks from ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield (16-7 year to date), Las Vegas Sun’s Case Keefer (15-8), Las Vegas Sun’s Ray Brewer (13-10), ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (12-11) and KSNV’s Randy Howe (10-13).

Sara McMann

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 5’5”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 7-0
  • Out of: Gaffney, S.C.
  • Betting line: +325

Ronda Rousey

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’6”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 2-0
  • MMA record 8-0
  • Out of: Santa Monica, Calif..
  • Betting line: -400

Women’s Bantamweight Championship Bout

Main Event

Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Sheila Gaff at UFC 159.

Punch list: Rousey finally has an opponent who’s as proficient in one area as she is in judo. McMann is even more decorated in wrestling, winning a silver medal in Athens at the 2004 Olympics. Rousey took bronze in judo in the 2008 Olympics. McMann believes she’s capable of controlling any female in the octagon, including the best in the world.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Rousey

Cofield: Rousey

Last fight: Third-round submission victory over Miesha Tate at UFC 168.

Punch list: “Rowdy” faces the quickest turnaround of her career as she’s only seven weeks removed from dispatching Tate. The distractions seem minimized for this fight, however, as Rousey’s budding movie career is on hold until after UFC 170. That’s when she’ll return to Hollywood to work on the “Entourage” movie and other projects.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Rousey

Brewer: Rousey

Okamoto: Rousey

Patrick Cummins

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 6’2”
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 4-0
  • Out of: Los Angeles
  • Betting line: +800

Daniel Cormier

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 5’11”
  • Weight: 224
  • UFC record 2-0
  • MMA record 13-0
  • Out of: San Jose, Calif.
  • Betting line: -1200

Light Heavyweight Bout

Co-Main Event

Last fight: Submitted Willie Smalls in the first round at Sparta Combat League Chaose In The Cage: Pit of Fury.

Punch list: The last-minute replacement for Evans may be unknown, but he’s not unaccomplished. Cummins wrestled at Penn State well enough to train at the Olympic Training Center where he previously encountered Cormier. And all four of his MMA bouts have ended in first-round stoppage victories.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Cormier

Cofield: Cormier

Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Roy Nelson at UFC 166.

Punch list: The former Olympic wrestler and Strikeforce champion’s insistence on staying on this card after an injury to Rashad Evans leaves him in somewhat of a no-win position. Nothing less than dismantling the anonymous Cummins will go down as a success in Cormier’s long-awaited light heavyweight debut.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Cormier

Brewer: Cummins

Okamoto: Cormier

Demian Maia

  • Age: 36
  • Height: 6’0”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 12-5
  • MMA record 18-5
  • Out of: Sao Paulo
  • Betting line: +240

Rory MacDonald

  • Age: 24
  • Height: 6’0”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 6-2
  • MMA record 15-2
  • Out of: Montreal
  • Betting line: -290

Welterweight Bout

Featured Contest

Last fight: Split-decision loss to Jake Shields at UFC Fight Night 29.

Punch list: Maia’s speed to the top of the 170-pound division crashed in Barueri, Brazil against Shields. After smothering and dominating his first three opponents in the weight division, Maia could never find rhythm and became exhausted against Shields.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Maia

Cofield: MacDonald

Last fight: Split-decision loss to Robbie Lawler at UFC 167.

Punch list: MacDonald’s resume-building to a title shot hit a snag against Lawler. His worst attribute — tentativeness — came out as Lawler stayed busy enough to pull off the big upset. MacDonald must get back to being more aggressive against Maia.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: MacDonald

Brewer: MacDonald

Okamoto: MacDonald

T.J. Waldburger

  • Age: 25
  • Height: 5’11”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 4-3
  • MMA record 16-8
  • Out of: Temple, Texas
  • Betting line: +170

Mike Pyle

  • Age: 38
  • Height: 6’1”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 8-3
  • MMA record 25-9-1
  • Out of: Las Vegas
  • Betting line: -210

Welterweight Bout

Pay-Per-View Fight

Last fight: Lost to Adlan Amagov via first-round knockout at UFC 166.

Punch list: Once considered a bright prospect at 170 pounds, Waldburger must now re-establish himself after losing two of his last three fights. All of his wins in the UFC have come via submission, but he’s gotten knocked out twice.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Pyle

Cofield: Pyle

Last fight: Lost to Matt Brown via first-round knockout at UFC Fight Night 26.

Punch list: One of the local mainstays in the fighting scene, Pyle is known as a freak of a nature. He’s renowned as one of the toughest guys to spar against in the gym and that skill level began to come through in a four-fight winning streak before the Brown setback.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Pyle

Brewer: Pyle

Okamoto: Waldburger

Stephen Thompson

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6’0”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 3-1
  • MMA record 8-1
  • Out of: Simpsonville, S.C.
  • Betting line: -140

Robert Whittaker

  • Age: 23
  • Height: 5’11”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 2-1
  • MMA record 11-3
  • Out of: Menai, New South Wales
  • Betting line: +110

Welterweight Bout

Main Card Opener

Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Chris Clements at UFC 165.

Punch list: “Wonderboy” is just as likely to give opponents headaches with his technique than his actual striking. Both are exceptional and unorthodox, as Thompson uses his vast karate background to approach MMA differently than anyone else in the UFC.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Thompson

Cofield: Whittaker

Last fight: Split-decision loss to Court McGee at UFC Fight Night 27.

Punch list: “The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes” winner should have a size and strength advantage over Thompson. Although he’s shown an ability and willingness to strike, wrestling might be Whittaker’s best bet in this instance.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Thompson

Brewer: Whittaker

Okamoto: Thompson

Jessica Eye

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’6”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 10-1
  • Out of: Cleveland
  • Betting line: +135

Alexis Davis

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’7”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 2-0
  • MMA record 15-5
  • Out of: Port Colbourne, Ontario
  • Betting line: -155

Women's Bantamweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 prelim

Last fight: No contest with Sarah Kaufman at UFC 166.

Punch list: Eye rides a wave of attention into UFC 170 for the wrong reasons. Her split-decision win over Kaufman was recently overturned to a no contest after she tested just barely positive for marijuana metabolites.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Davis

Cofield: Davis

Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Liz Carmouche at UFC: Fight For The Troops 3.

Punch list: The No. 3 ranked women’s bantamweight fighter in the world, Davis thinks she’s overdue for a title shot. An ailing Cat Zingano still waits in the wings as the next challenger, but a win here would put Davis on the same timetable as the champion and awfully close to the fight she wants.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Davis

Brewer: Eye

Okamoto: Eye

Pedro Munhoz

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’7”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 10-0
  • Out of: Sao Paulo
  • Betting line: +160

Raphael Assuncao

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5’4”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 5-1
  • MMA record 21-4
  • Out of: Atlanta
  • Betting line: -190

Bantamweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 prelim

Last fight: Submitted Billy Daniels in the first round at Resurrection Fighting Alliance 12.

Punch list: “The Punisher” isn’t the average UFC newcomer. He made a name for himself by becoming the bantamweight champion of RFA, one of the higher profile minor-league organizations, and finishing four of his last five opponents.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Assuncao

Cofield: Assuncao

Last fight: Split-decision victory over T.J. Dillashaw at UFC Fight Night 29.

Punch list: The No. 3 ranked bantamweight in the world, Assuncao is assumed as Renan Barao’s next challenger with a victory here. He’s unbeaten for nearly three years, having not lost since his UFC debut in a higher weight class.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Assuncao

Brewer: Assuncao

Okamoto: Assuncao

Aljamain Sterling

  • Age: 24
  • Height: 5’7”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 8-0
  • Out of: Uniondale, N.Y.
  • Betting line: -250

Cody Gibson

  • Age: 26
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 11-3
  • Out of: Visalia, Calif.
  • Betting line: +200

Bantamweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 Prelim

Last fight: First-round submission victory over Joel Roberts at Cage Fury Fighting Championships 30.

Punch list: A two-time Division III All-American wrestler in college, Sterling has trained alongside some of the sport’s best since taking up mixed martial arts. He’s a former teammate of light heavyweight champion Jon Jones and works with middleweight champion Chris Weidman regularly.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Gibson

Cofield: Sterling

Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Evan Esguerra at Tachi Palace Fights 17.

Punch list: Hard to believe this bout actually started as Bryan Caraway vs. Lucas Martins. An injury to Caraway brought in Sterling. Martins followed course in getting hurt to lead to a call for Gibson, a former collegiate wrestler who now coaches the sport at his high school alma mater.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Sterling

Brewer:Sterling

Okamoto: Sterling

Josh Sampo

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’4”
  • Weight: 125
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 11-2
  • Out of: St. Charles, Mo.
  • Betting line: +150

Zach Makovsky

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5’4”
  • Weight: 125
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 17-4
  • Out of: Philadelphia
  • Betting line: -175

Flyweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 Prelim

Last fight: Beat Ryan Benoit in the second round by submission at “The Ultimate Fighter” 18 finale.

Punch list: Sampo showed the explosiveness and well roundedness that attracted the UFC in the first place in his debut. He picked Benoit apart on the feet for the better part of two rounds before sweeping his way to a submission.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Makovsky

Cofield: Makovsky

Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Scott Jorgensen at UFC on Fox 9.

Punch list: The former Bellator bantamweight champion announced his crossover into the UFC with a bang by upsetting Jorgensen. “Fun Size” could force himself into the title conversation with another victory.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Sampo

Brewer: Makovsky

Okamoto: Makovsky

Rafaello Oliveira

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’8”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 2-5
  • MMA record 15-6
  • Out of: Whippany, N.J.
  • Betting line: +300

Erik Koch

  • Age: 25
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 2-2
  • MMA record 13-3
  • Out of: Milwaukee
  • Betting line: -400

Lightweight Bout

UFC Fight Pass Prelim

Last fight: Second-round TKO loss to Edson Barboza at UFC 162.

Punch list: Loser of four of his last five, “Tractor” knows the urgency of his situation. He’s held on in the UFC for nearly five years, but another loss would make the grappler’s longevity count for little.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Koch

Cofield: Koch

Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 164.

Punch list: Koch was scheduled to fight Jose Aldo for the featherweight title a few years ago, but now can’t even crack the televised card. The low billing is likely due to a combination of his two-fight losing streak and a move up to the crowded lightweight division.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Koch

Brewer: Koch

Okamoto: Koch

Ernest Chavez

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5’8”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 7-0
  • Out of: Orange County, Calif.
  • Betting line: +240

Yosdenis Cedeno

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’8”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 9-2
  • Out of: Miami
  • Betting line: -290

Lightweight Bout

UFC Fight Pass Prelim

Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Jorge Valdez.

Punch list: The Brazilian breaks a stereotype of his nationality as he’s a far more accomplished striker than grappler. Half of his fights have ended in knockout victories, while he’s yet to record a submission.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Cedeno

Cofield: Cedeno

Last fight: Beat Torrance Taylor by split decision at Championship Fighting Alliance 12.

Punch list: The Cuban calls himself “The Pink Panther”, but there’s nothing cute or funny about the way he fights. Cedeno used his boxing acumen to capture the CFA lightweight championship before attracting the UFC.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Cedeno

Brewer: Cedeno

Okamoto: Cedeno

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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