Currently: 79° | Complete forecast | Log in

UFC 153 breakdown, betting odds and picks

Silva vs. Bonnar features highest line in UFC main-event history

Image

Sam Morris / Las Vegas Sun

UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva takes part in a news conference to promote his bout against Chael Sonnen at UFC 148 Tuesday, July 3, 2012.

Stephan Bonnar has already made history.

Bonnar hopes to go down in the UFC annals as the first man to beat pound-for-pound great Anderson Silva Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, but he’s clinched a different record before even competing.

He’ll enter UFC 153 as the biggest main-event underdog in promotional history. Oddsmakers opened the 35-year old veteran as high as a +1300 (risking $1 to win $13) underdog.

Bets on Bonnar at the high mark have driven down the price significantly — he’s +800 at William Hill sports books currently with Silva coming back at -1100 — but Silva remains a historical favorite.

No one on the Las Vegas Sun picks panel can imagine “The Spider” losing. Everyone participating picked Silva, while also siding with six other fighters unanimously.

Find a breakdown, picks and betting odds from William Hill below. KSNV’s Kevin West (81-51) leads the yearlong prognostication contest with ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (80-52), ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield (79-53), Las Vegas Sun’s Case Keefer (74-58) and Las Vegas Sun’s Ray Brewer (65-67) trailing.

Stephan Bonnar

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 6’4''
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 8-6
  • MMA record 14-7
  • Out of: Las Vegas
  • Betting line: +800

Anderson Silva

  • Age: 37
  • Height: 6’2''
  • Weight: 184
  • UFC record 15-0
  • MMA record 32-4
  • Out of: Curitiba, Brazil
  • Betting line: -1100

Light Heavyweight Bout

Main Event

Last fight: Defeated Kyle Kingsbury by unanimous decision at UFC 139.

Punch list: Bonnar has begged for a “big fight” for the last year. He’s got one bigger than he ever could have imagined here. “The American Psycho” is at a major disadvantage, but he is the bigger man. He’s developed his wrestling to make it strength over the years, so look for him to try to take Silva down in Brazil. He’s conferred with Sonnen, who’s had more success against Silva than anyone in the UFC by getting him on the ground.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Silva

Cofield: Silva

Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Chael Sonnen at UFC 148.

Punch list: Silva was irate and vowing to make a statement before his last fight. He’s calm and expressing respect before this one. He’s proven to be equally as dangerous in both states. He may be fighting up a weight class, but he’s done it before and can knock out anyone in the UFC. Silva’s status as the best mixed martial artist ever is undisputed after beating Sonnen for a second time.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Silva

Brewer: Silva

Okamoto: Silva

Dave Herman

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 6’4”
  • Weight: 233
  • UFC record 1-2
  • MMA record 21-4
  • Out of: Temecula, Calif.
  • Betting line: +245

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

  • Age: 36
  • Height: 6’3''
  • Weight: 239
  • UFC record 4-3
  • MMA record 33-7-2
  • Out of: Bahia, Brazil
  • Betting line: -290

Heavyweight Bout

Co-Main Event

Last fight: Knocked out by Roy Nelson in the first round at UFC 146.

Punch list: Few heavyweights are as athletic as “Pee Wee” Herman. Even fewer are as maddening. Herman has long admitted to not liking to train. Fair or not, comments like that are pointed to when he encounters adversity like his current two-fight losing streak.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Nogueira

Cofield: Nogueira

Last fight: Submitted by Frank Mir at UFC 140.

Punch list: The last time fans saw “Big Nog” in the octagon, Mir was snapping his arm. It was one of the most shocking moments in UFC history. Nogueira tried to rush back, but took a bout before he was ready this summer. He also took this fight on short notice, which has led some to wonder if he’s even fully recovered now.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Herman

Brewer: Nogueira

Okamoto: Nogueira

Fabio Maldonaldo

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 6’1’’
  • Weight: 204
  • UFC record 1-2
  • MMA record 18-5
  • Out of: Florianopolis, Brazil
  • Betting line: +300

Glover Teixiera

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 6’2’’
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 18-2
  • Out of: Rio de Janeiro
  • Betting line: -360

Light Heavyweight Bout

Featured Fight

Last fight: Lost a unanimous decision to Igor Pokrajac at UFC on FUEL TV 3.

Punch list: Under normal circumstances, Maldonaldo would be fighting for his UFC life against Teixeira after losing two in a row. But both of those defeats were highly controversial decisions. Combine that with stepping up as a late-replacement for this bout and he may not be on the chopping block. Maldonado will need a win to make sure, though.

Staff picks:KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Teixeira

Cofield: Teixeira

Last fight: Submitted Kyle Kingsbury in the first round at UFC 146.

Punch list: Dana White said it was a nightmare getting Teixeira an opponent. No one wants to fight the fast-riser. “Shogun” Rua turned down this bout so the UFC settled for Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. After Rampage injured himself in training, Maldonado was the lone man brave enough to call out Teixeira.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Teixeira

Brewer: Teixeira

Okamoto: Teixeira

Erick Silva

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5’11''
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 2-1
  • MMA record 14-2
  • Out of: Vila Velha, Brazil
  • Betting line: -135

Jon Fitch

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 6’0''
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 13-2-1
  • MMA record 23-3-1
  • Out of: San Jose, Calif.
  • Betting line: +115

Welterweight Bout

Pay-Per-View Fight

Last fight: Submitted Charlie Brenneman in the first round at UFC on FX 3.

Punch list: His only UFC loss was a controversial disqualification against Carlo Prater after he appeared to knock him out within seconds. In other words, his status as the 170-pound division’s brightest prospect hasn’t wavered. The Brenneman victory went a long way towards proving Silva could deal with high-level wrestling, which he’ll see against Fitch.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Silva

Cofield: Fitch

Last fight: First-round knockout loss to Johny Hendricks at UFC 141.

Punch list: Everyone considered Fitch the world’s second-best welterweight until last year. A 12-second knockout loss to Hendricks and a draw with B.J. Penn changed his standing. Were those setbacks flukes or is the grinder on the downside of his career? Fighting the top prospect on his home turf should answer the question.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Fitch

Brewer: Fitch

Okamoto: Fitch

Wagner Prado

  • Age: 22
  • Height: 6’0’’
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 8-0
  • Out of: Rio de Janeiro
  • Betting line: +300

Phil Davis

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 6’2’’
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 5-1
  • MMA record 9-1
  • Out of: San Diego
  • Betting line: -360

Light Heavyweight Bout

Pay-Per-View Fight

Last fight: No contest with Davis at UFC on FOX 4.

Punch list: No one protested the doctor’s stoppage in Los Angeles louder than Prado. But the undefeated newcomer admitted to seeing double, which meant the call to end the fight was the correct one. Prado had developed an early striking rhythm against Davis in the fight.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Davis

Cofield: Davis

Last fight: No contest with Prado at UFC on FOX 4.

Punch list: Davis and Prado spent 1:28 in the octagon together in Los Angeles before an accidental eye poke left the Brazilian unable to continue. The UFC re-booked the bout in Rio de Janeiro, shifting home-field advantage from Davis’ corner into Prado’s.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Davis

Brewer: Davis

Okamoto: Davis

Rick Story

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5’10’’
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 7-3
  • MMA record 14-5
  • Out of: Vancouver, Wash.
  • Betting line: +130

Demian Maia

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 6’0’’
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 4-3
  • MMA record 25-8
  • Out of: Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • Betting line: -150

Welterweight Bout

Pay-Per-View Opener

Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Brock Jardine at UFC on FX 3.

Punch list: “The Horror” has the wrestling chops to take Maia down, but can he stay out of trouble on the ground? Story will have needed to work on his submission defense, as Maia is a third-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. But few fighters are tougher than Story, who has never lost by stoppage.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Maia

Cofield: Maia

Last fight: Knocked out Dong Hyun Kim in the first round at UFC 148.

Punch list: The thought process behind Maia’s drop to welterweight was that he could control the smaller fighters better and get them to the ground to use his jiu-jitsu. The first part of the equation worked against Kim. He didn’t have to try the second. Maia injured Kim to where he couldn’t continue with a slam to the canvas.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Story

Brewer: Story

Okamoto: Maia

Sam Sicilia

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’8”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 11-1
  • Out of: Spokane, Wash.
  • Betting line: +200

Rony “Jason” Bezerra

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5’8’’
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 11-3
  • Out of: Rio de Janeiro
  • Betting line:-240

Featherweight Bout

FX prelim

Last fight: Second-round knockout win over Cristiano Marcello at “The Ultimate Fighter Live” finale.

Punch list: Dana White someday envisions “The Ultimate Fighter” turning into a World Cup-type format where every country’s champion fights each other. So in other words, it will look something like this fight. Although Sicilia didn’t want his American season of “TUF”, his knockout power makes him one of the stronger prospects to make it out of the house.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Bezerra

Cofield: Bezerra

Last fight: Beat Godofredo Pepey by unanimous decision at UFC 147.

Punch list: The hometown champion of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” will receive a hero’s welcome at HSBC Arena, especially facing an American. Bezerra walks to the cage in a Jason mask and doesn’t fight unlike a crazed killer. He’s wild and constantly looking for a finish in any way possible.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Bezerra

Brewer: Sicilia

Okamoto: Bezerra

Francisco Trinaldo

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 5’8’’
  • Weight: 183
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 11-1
  • Out of: Brasilia, Brazil
  • Betting line: +125

Gleison Tibau

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’10’’
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 10-6
  • MMA record 34-8
  • Out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
  • Betting line: -145

Lightweight Bout

FX Prelim

Last fight: First-round TKO over Delson Heleno at UFC 147.

Punch list: Lightweight is Trinaldo’s third weight class in the last two years. He became the lightweight champion of Jungle Fights, a respected promotion in Brazil, before jumping two divisions to compete on “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” at middleweight. He’s shown knockout power no matter how big the opponent.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Tibau

Cofield: Tibau

Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 148.

Punch list: Tibau is approaching his seventh year competing in the UFC. He had pieced together a career-best three-fight win streak in the octagon, before Nurmagomedov unseated him this summer. His size gives him an advantage over almost everyone at 155 pounds, as he cuts more weight than most fellow lightweights.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Tibau

Brewer: Tibau

Okamoto: Tibau

Joey Gambino

  • Age: 23
  • Height: 5’7”
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 9-1
  • Out of: Saugerties, N.Y.
  • Betting line: +145

Diego Brandao

  • Age: 25
  • Height: 5’7’’
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 14-8
  • Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
  • Betting line: -165

Featherweight Bout

FX Prelim

Last fight: Defeated by Steven Siler at UFC on FX 4 by first-round submission.

Punch list: Young and talented, “The Raging Warrior” looked like he had the potential to stick in the UFC for years to come. But a tough first pairing with Siler set him back. The match with Brandao looks even more difficult, but Gambino does have solid grappling in his favor.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Brandao

Cofield: Brandao

Last fight: Lost to Darren Elkins via unanimous-decision at UFC 146.

Punch list: The Greg Jackson-trained fighter vowed not to return to his home country again until he had a UFC championship belt. Well, he got assigned a fight in Brazil so that took priority. Many fast-tracked Brandao to stardom after winning “The Ultimate Fighter” 14, but the bout with Elkins showed his wrestling wasn’t quite as strong as the rest of his game.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Brandao

Brewer: Brandao

Okamoto: Brandao

Renee Forte

  • Age: 25
  • Height: 5’10’’
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 7-1
  • Out of: Fortaleza, Brazil
  • Betting line: +190

Sergio Moraes

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5’11’’
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 6-2
  • Out of: Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • Betting line: -220

Welterweight Bout

FX Prelim

Last fight: Defeated Renan Santos by third-round TKO at Amazon Fights 8.

Punch list: The UFC seemingly has a stable of lighter-weight Brazilians to sign. Forte is the newest. Although he hasn’t fought in 17 months, the last result was emphatic. Forte beating his opponent so badly he retired, according to Sherdog.com.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Moraes

Cofield: Forte

Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Cezar Ferreira.

Punch list: After getting eliminated in “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil”, “Serginho” received some good fortune as a fill-in for the championship against Ferreira. He couldn’t capitalize. A loss against Forte would likely send him back to the Brazilian regional circuit.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Moraes

Brewer: Moraes

Okamoto: Forte

Chris Camozzi

  • Age: 25
  • Height: 6’3”
  • Weight: 185
  • UFC record 3-2
  • MMA record 17-5
  • Out of: Lakewood, Colo.
  • Betting line: +120

Luiz Cane

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6’12’
  • Weight: 185
  • UFC record 4-4
  • MMA record 12-4
  • Out of: Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • Betting line: -140

Middleweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Nick Catone at UFC on FX 4.

Punch list: Getting cut from the UFC a year-and-a-half ago was eye-opening for Camozzi. The wrestler has come back stronger in hopes of never experiencing that fate again, winning two of three fights. Both wins, against Catone and Dustin Jacoby, came via stoppage in the final frame.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Cane

Cofield: Cane

Last fight: First-round TKO loss to Stanislav Nedkov at UFC 134.

Punch list: Overpowering flashes of promise followed by disappointing streaks of inconsistency have defined Cane’s career in the octagon. None of the fighters he’s beaten have stuck in the UFC. Three of those four victories, however, came by knockout in the opening two rounds.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Cane

Brewer: Cane

Okamoto: Cane

Reza Madadi

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’11’’
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 12-2
  • Out of:Stockholm, Sweden
  • Betting line: -200

Cristiano Marcello

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 5’9’’
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 12-4
  • Out of: Rondonia, Brazil
  • Betting line: +175

Lightweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Second-round submission victory over Yosilady Izquierdo at UFC on FUEL TV 2.

Punch list: The Iran-born, Sweden-dwelling Madadi hasn’t lost since 2008. He’s well rounded, a skilled enough striker to make opponents uncomfortable and a strong enough grappler to submit them. He had wins over three UFC veterans before signing with the promotion.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Marcello

Cofield: Madadi

Last fight: Lost to Sam Sicilia at “The Ultimate Fighter Live” finale by second-round knockout.

Punch list: One final “TUF” veteran rounds out the card. Marcello was on Team Faber last year, losing in the first round and in his bout at the finale. But he surprisingly gets another chance in his home country, perhaps because he’s one of the world’s best Brazilian jiu-jitsu players.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Madadi

Brewer: Madadi

Okamoto: Madadi

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy