ASSOCIATED PRESS
Ozzie Guillen
Wednesday, April 4, 2012 | 2 a.m.
With the return of Major League Baseball season, the Sun will run a two-part series looking at the odds posted at local sports books.
The odds on each team to win their division, league and the World Series are provided along with a look back at last year. The 2011 results listed are a team’s record, their profitability if a bettor placed a $100 wager on them every game and how they fared on over/under totals posted at sports books.
The odds come from the LVH Superbook. The past information comes from the sports betting database at Covers.com.
Here's a breakdown of the National League with Caesars Entertainment Senior Race and Sports Analyst Todd Fuhrman. Check back tomorrow for the American League.
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Atlanta Braves
2011 results: 89-73 (-$216, 74-78-10 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 86.5
Odds to win NL East: +450
Odds to win National League: +650
Odds to win World Series: 16-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “The Braves, as a team, have always been built on pitching. There are some major question marks surrounding their health right now, but the Braves are a team no one is talking about in the division with the talent to win it.”
Quick overview: The Braves' popularity has waned, at least in Las Vegas. Instead of bettors lining up to take a shot on Atlanta’s future odds, they are betting it to go under the win total and picking other NL East underdogs like Miami and Washington to dethrone Philadelphia. The way the Braves burned cash by going 9-19 last September may have stayed fresh in gamblers’ minds. Or maybe they’re worried about starting pitchers Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens returning from injury. But if Jason Heyward can bounce back from a sophomore slump and Freddie Freeman can prevent one of his own, Atlanta should have no problem putting up runs.
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Miami Marlins
2011 results: 72-90 (-$1,345, 77-76-9 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 85
Odds to win NL East: +450
Odds to win National League: +800
Odds to win World Series: 20-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “The Marlins have definitely attracted some interest in the futures market. When you talk about bringing in a guy like Ozzie Guillen as manager and all the talent they signed, this team has gone out and made a splash. And now they’re playing behind the momentum of a home fan base that they’ve never had with that new building.”
Quick overview: Shortstop Jose Reyes, closer Heath Bell, and starting pitchers Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano will all don a Marlins jersey for the first time this season. Consider bettors intrigued. An active approach in free agency usually stimulates Las Vegas betting interest, and that’s surely been the case with Miami. Despite winning 72 games last season, the Marlins' win total opened at 84 this season and has gotten action on the over. Their odds to win the pennant have dropped from +1100 to +800 in one month.
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New York Mets
2011 results: 77-85 (-$103, 92-64-6 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 72
Odds to win NL East: 40-to-1
Odds to win National League: 40-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 100-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “They are more or less irrelevant when it comes to competing for the division title. This is a team searching for an identity. They aren’t going to compete in arguably the deepest division in baseball.”
Quick overview: Any Mets bettor must contemplate what will happen if the team, as expected, struggles early and falls out of the race before summertime. They could opt to unload what little talent remains, most notably third baseman David Wright, through the trade market. On the upside, New York gets Johan Santana back as its No. 1 starter. Santana, who missed all of last season with shoulder surgery, spent many years as the major’s best pitcher and one of the most popular players to bet on in any sport.
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Philadelphia Phillies
2011 results: 102-60 (+$1,273, 74-78-10 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 92.5
Odds to win NL East: -180
Odds to win National League: +240
Odds to win World Series: 6-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “They are the prohibitive favorite to win the whole thing, but I think their backers should be questioning where this team is going to generate offense, especially without Ryan Howard’s services until he recovers. This is a team that we saw was hard-pressed to put up runs last year in the playoffs.”
Quick overview: The Phillies have turned into the most popular team to bet on in all of baseball. These things tend to happen when a franchise wins five straight divisional crowns and averages 95 victories a year. A rotation featuring Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels doesn’t hurt either. But it’s nearly inconceivable to see the Phillies matching last season’s 102 wins, especially with first baseman Ryan Howard out at the beginning of the year. Nothing slowed action on them, however, as their win total has increased since opening in January.
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Washington Nationals
2011 results: 80-81 (+$1,161, 75-80-6 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 84
Odds to win NL East: +600
Odds to win National League: +1100
Odds to win World Series: 25-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “They’re an intriguing team because they’ve got such a young pitching staff with Strasburg at the top, Jordan Zimmerman a year removed from Tommy John’s and the trade for Gio Gonzalez. That’s a great staff. It makes them as dynamic as any team in the division with some upside.”
Quick overview: A slew of sharp bettors liked Washington to go over its win total of 72.5 last year. The Nationals did it with ease, notching 80 victories to come up one game short of posting their first winning record since moving to the nation’s capital. Now, it’s time to see how they do with the burden of expectations. Washington will get more attention than ever before this season with 2009 top draft pick Steven Strasburg at the top of the rotation and 2010 top draft pick Bryce Harper expected to make his MLB debut sometime in the summer.
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Chicago Cubs
2011 results: 71-91 (-$1,424, 79-77-6 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 74
Odds to win NL Central: 15-to-1
Odds to win National League: 25-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 60-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “Cubs fans should take solace that this is going to be a two- or three-year reclamation project. This team isn’t built to compete now. But you have to trust in Theo Epstein to, I would say, get them back to prominence, but I don’t think they’ve ever been there.”
Quick overview: Which city has enjoyed the Cubs' 105-year stretch without a World Series the most? St. Louis, home of the rival Cardinals, is the easy answer. Las Vegas might be just as accurate. Every year, bettors throw away money by loading up on Cubs future wagers. Even this year, when Chicago looks like non-contenders, sports books have printed plenty of tickets on the Cubs to go over their win total or win the national league. The excitement has to do with new general manager Theo Epstein, but the product on the field won’t change much initially as the club prepares for the future.
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Cincinnati Reds
2011 results: 79-83 (-$1,359, 83-69-10 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 88
Odds to win NL Central: +110
Odds to win National League: +650
Odds to win World Series: 15-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “There’s a lot to like about this team, including the acquisition of Matt Latos to anchor their pitching staff. And, offensively, they are dynamic. There’s going to be a ton of pressure on Joey Votto with the huge deal he signed.”
Quick overview: Sports books gave Cincinnati the shortest odds to win the NL Central, which did nothing to stop gamblers from betting on them. Bettors are seduced by a lineup that looks among the strongest in the league. Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs are all exceptional in different areas. Playing in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark is another plus, as the Reds have posted overs at a high clip for the past five years.
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Houston Astros
2011 results: 56-106 (-$3,365, 87-71-4 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 63
Odds to win NL Central: 100-to-1
Odds to win National League: 125-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 300-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “The Astros are a team we are going to have some issues with as bookmakers later in the year. It was hard enough to attract money on them last year, and this year, this is a team that’s going to take their lumps and go through growing pains.”
Quick overview: Houston’s win total of 63 is so low that the next worst team, the Baltimore Orioles, is posted an entire six games better. The Astros gave up the most runs in the National League last year and scored the fourth fewest. The 35-year-old Carlos Lee is the only marquee player remaining on Houston’s roster. Although Lee remains a presence at the plate, he’s lost power and posted only 18 home runs last season. That’s the fewest since his rookie season in 1999. Lee is part of the field to win the home run title at the Superbook.
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Milwaukee Brewers
2011 results: 96-66 (+$2,104, 76-77-9 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 85
Odds to win NL Central: +180
Odds to win National League: 11-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 25-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “Top to bottom, I think the Brewers have the best pitching staff in the division. I think that’s going to keep them in a lot of games. It’s not only their starting staff but also their eighth- and ninth-inning guys with the tandem of Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford.”
Quick overview: Milwaukee was among the most popular picks to win the World Series in Las Vegas sports books before last season. The Brewers almost got there, coming up short by losing to the Cardinals in the National League championship series. This year looks tougher with the departure of Prince Fielder. Last year’s NL MVP, Ryan Braun, has less protection in the lineup. The Brewers were the second most profitable team for bettors in all of baseball last year, behind only the Diamondbacks. They also went 11 games over their posted win total of 85.
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Pittsburgh Pirates
2011 results: 72-90 (-$113, 79-76-7 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 73.5
Odds to win NL Central: 20-to-1
Odds to win National League: 25-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 60-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “The Pirates could be a team to keep an eye on. They’ve got a decent pitching staff that goes unnoticed if Erik Bedard can stay healthy at the top of the rotation. And from an entertainment standpoint, they’ve got one of the more talented young outfields in all of baseball.”
Quick overview: If someone was smart enough to bet on the Pirates frequently at the beginning of the 2011 season and against them at the end, they significantly boosted their bankroll. Pittsburgh got off to a memorable start and led the NL Central in late July before fading into its customary forgotten status. Results-wise, sports books see Pittsburgh having a similar season in 2012. Jose Tabata, Alex Presley and Andrew McCutchen — Pittsburgh’s top three hitters and outfielders — could be “a thorn in the side” to teams contending late in the season, according to Fuhrman.
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St. Louis Cardinals
2011 results: 90-72 (+$234, 86-71-5 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 83
Odds to win NL Central: +350
Odds to win National League: 15-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 35-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “I think they are a step behind the Reds at the top of the division because they’ve got a lot more questions. It starts with who’s going to pick up the offensive slack without (Albert) Pujols’ bat in the middle of the lineup. Matt Holliday and David Freese are capable, but are those really the guys you can rely on in crunch time?”
Quick overview: Any team coming off of a World Series title is going to receive respect from oddsmakers. But these Cardinals aren’t the same Cardinals as last year. Manager Tony La Russa retired. First baseman Albert Pujols signed with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Pitching ace Adam Wainwright returns, but he’s coming off of Tommy John’s surgery. St. Louis is hopeful its offense remains potent enough without Pujols. For the first time since 2006, the Cardinals posted more overs than unders last season because of the way their bats heated up at the end of the year.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
2011 results: 94-68 (+$2,820, 75-82-5 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 86
Odds to win NL West: +160
Odds to win National League: +800
Odds to win World Series: 20-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “You have to love a guy like Justin Upton anchoring the middle of the lineup. They did have some guys step up last year that I don’t know if you can depend on. But their offense is still a step ahead of the rest of their division.”
Quick overview: The Diamondbacks were by far the biggest Vegas underdog to win their division last season. At 20-to-1 to win the West, Arizona was even behind lowly San Diego to start the year. The Diamondbacks went 22 victories over its posted win total of 72 games in 2011. To repeat, Arizona’s rotation — led by Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and Trevor Cahill — will need to exceed expectations.
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Colorado Rockies
2011 results: 73-89 (-$2,870, 83-73-6 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 81
Odds to win NL West: +450
Odds to win National League: 15-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 35-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “When you trot Jeremy Guthrie out there as your opening day starter, it’s going to be cause of concern. But, hearing manager Jim Tracy’s comments and how they want to play, they are going to get back to the bomber mentality and just try to outscore you in their building.”
Quick overview: Colorado posted more overs than unders for the first time in four seasons last year. Yes, the Rockies' pitching was atrocious, even by their deflated standards. Can a superb lineup — led by stars Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki in the middle of the order — score enough runs to overshadow another flimsy staff of arms — Jeremy Guthrie and Jamie Moyer are at the top of the rotation — this season? Bettors don’t think so, as the Rockies' win total has steadily decreased with money coming in on the under.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
2011 results: 82-79 (+$201, 79-71-11 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 80.5
Odds to win NL West: +700
Odds to win National League: 17-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 40-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “The Dodgers have two superstars in Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp, but there are so many questions with aging veterans all over the field. You’ve got to hope some of their pitchers, like Chad Billingsley, realize some of their potential.”
Quick overview: Lost in all the chatter about the ownership fiasco was the fact that the Dodgers didn’t have that bad of a season in 2011. The results they posted synched almost exactly with what Vegas forecasted before the season. Los Angeles finished in third in the NL West after having the third-best odds to win the division. It came in under its 83.5 win total by only 1.5 games. Outfielder Matt Kemp, of course, had one of the most memorable seasons in recent memory with a .324 average, 40 steals, 39 home runs and 126 RBI. Vegas sees a bit of a drop-off for Kemp this season, as his over/under home run total is listed at 30.
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San Diego Padres
2011 results: 71-91 (-$1,123, 81-74-7 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 73.5
Odds to win NL West: 15-to-1
Odds to win National League: 40-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 100-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “The Padres are a step behind. They have some young talent and could be capable of taking the next step, but I’m not convinced this will be the year they do so.”
Quick overview: An anemic offense has become part of the Padres' identity. Year after year, San Diego fields a mediocre lineup and forces it to play in the league’s most pitcher-friendly park. But Vegas could have over-adjusted for Petco Park and San Diego’s challenged bats last season, as the Padres went over the total more than under for the first time since 2007. San Diego acquired former White Sox slugger Carlos Quentin to help offensively this year. It also hopes 24-year-old Cameron Maybin continues to improve.
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San Francisco Giants
2011 results: 86-76 (-$453, 70-85-7 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 87.5
Odds to win NL Central: +140
Odds to win National League: +650
Odds to win World Series: 16-to-1
Fuhrman’s thoughts: “This is a team that’s going to be there until the end. Getting Buster Posey back in the offense really gives their offensive a catalyst. Last year, they struggled without him and from the World Series hangover.”
Quick overview: Injuries and an increasingly weak lineup kept the Giants from an opportunity to defend its 2010 World Series title in the playoffs last year. Even though catcher Buster Posey is back and outfielder Melky Cabrera arrives, hitting will remain a concern. A deep corps of starting pitchers led by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain should keep them in the race throughout the year. They are practically co-favorites with Arizona to win the NL West pennant, as the prices on the two teams have stayed close and flipped back and forth all spring.
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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