Can Sandoval’s numbers stay up?

By Jon Ralston

Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2011 | 2 a.m.

Gravity is an unstoppable force, whether in physics or politics.

And at some point, Gov. Brian Sandoval, who so far has floated above everyone else in a balloon inflated by his immense likability and little else, will have to come down to Earth. Whether it is with a thud or a soft landing is the question.

Once again, Sandoval, all of eight-plus months into his term, looks relatively robust in poll numbers released this week. The survey, taken last week by expert national pollster Glen Bolger and paid for by the Retail Association of Nevada, shows 50 percent of Nevadans approve of his performance while 33 percent disapprove.

These days, with congressional approval ratings lower than Jim Gibbons’ at his nadir and the public quite irritable because of the economy, those numbers aren’t too shabby. For comparison, when Bolger last polled for the retailers in February, before the Legislature commenced, Sandoval’s numbers were 47-26.

Sandoval’s numbers are especially healthy when compared with President Barack Obama (42/55) or state lawmakers (39/48). But before we confer juggernaut status on Gov. Sunny and count the reasons why he should be on the GOP ticket next year, it’s time for a reality check:

Sandoval’s numbers are not wonderful, and there are reasons he may have reached his apex, at least for this cycle. Indeed, when I suggested to one GOP expert that Sandoval might have support that is the proverbial mile long and an inch deep, he suggested a half-inch deep may be more appropriate. And Sandoval’s fortunes are inextricably linked to the state economy, which continues to stagnate and could deflate his balloon.

There are quite a few reasons, atmospheric and numeric, indicating Sandoval’s extended honeymoon may be over. Let’s count them:

• Nevadans are a sour bunch, with only 18 percent saying the state is going in the right direction and 77 percent saying Nevada is seriously on the wrong track. This is where gravity comes in — either that number starts to go up or Sandoval starts to go down.

• As I have pointed out before, Sandoval is a very lucky man. The economy ticked upward enough to allow him to infuse more money into his budget. The state Supreme Court allowed him to release the pressure valve, which he seemed only too eager to do, and extend expiring taxes. And he is a giant compared with the dwarves across the courtyard, who looked inept, disorganized and strident by comparison.

• The governor can’t do much to turn around the country’s worst economy without calling a special session and trying something stimulative. This he will not do. And while a remarkably low 2 percent (!) of respondents to Bolger’s poll said they blame the governor for the state of Nevada’s economy, that can only rise if it gets worse. So far the Sandoval likability has defied physics, but do voters here possess inexhaustible patience?

• The numbers in that poll have some ominous markers for Sandoval, including one anomalous finding that, if true, bodes real trouble.

First, Sandoval’s disapproval rating has risen 7 percentage points since February (his approval rating only 3 points). And of the 50 percent who approve of the governor, only 14 percent “strongly approve” of Sandoval’s job. Folks, the president has 18 percent who “strongly approve” of his performance.

Second, Bolger found that although Sandoval’s Clark County (53-31) and rural Nevada (54-26) numbers are robust, the survey indicated that he has problems in his home base of Northern Nevada. The poll showed more people (45 percent) disapprove of Sandoval’s performance than approve (41 percent), which is strange indeed.

The Sandoval folks will say the number is wrong — and it may be. But I understand Bolger has checked for any tabulation errors and not found one. And other Washoe numbers show another statewide Republican official doing very well — Sen. Dean Heller has a 17 percentage point lead over Rep. Shelley Berkley in Reno and environs.

If the number is right, maybe there is familiarity breeding contempt or maybe it’s because the Washoe folks are in an especially angry mood — only 14 percent say the state is going in the right direction and 81 percent say Nevada is off track.

But even if the Washoe numbers are an aberration, we are about to enter a presidential year and those numbers in Clark County surely will change, especially if Sandoval’s choice for president, Rick Perry, gets the nomination. And even if he doesn’t, partisan feelings will be inflamed and Sandoval will have trouble hovering above it all in 2012.

What goes up must come down. And unless Gov. Sunny can find a way to rejuvenate the economy pretty soon, his inherent charm notwithstanding, he may look more like Icarus a year from now.

(You can see the poll here.)