UFC Fight Night 25 betting odds and picks

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 15, 2011 | 4:35 p.m.

The simple act of stepping into the octagon will go down as a courageous move by UFC welterweight Jake Shields Saturday in New Orleans.

Shields lost his father, Jack Shields, less than three weeks ago while in the middle of his training camp to prepare for his UFC Fight Night 25 main event bout against Jake Ellenberger. Jack Shields, 67, was more than Jake’s father — he was also his manager and one of his “best friends”.

“I had a really tough time,” Shields said in a statement. “It took me a moment to figure out what I wanted to do but I figured the right thing to do would be to continue to fight with him being my manager and my biggest supporter.”

Shields (26-5-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) lost for the first time in six years in April, falling via unanimous decision to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 129, which snapped a 15-fight winning streak. His path back to the top starts with Ellenberger (25-5 MMA, 4-1 UFC), a dangerous wrestler and striker whose only octagon loss came in a controversial split decision against Carlos Condit.

Sports books list Shields as a favorite at -185 (risking $1.85 to win $1), with Ellenberger coming back at +160. The odds haven’t shifted since Jack’s passing, because no one knows what role it will play on Shields’ performance.

Some would say the emotional toll could do nothing but weaken Shields’ chances in the fight. Shields’ supporters might counter by arguing that he has more motivation to win in honor of his father.

“It’s been (a) little tough since then, but I don’t think it’s really affected my training” Shields said. “When it’s been time to focus and train, I’ve been able to pull it together and got some of the best workouts and sparring sessions ever in the last couple of weeks.”

Shields has always come off as a consummate professional during his mixed martial arts career. He wouldn’t stay in the Ellenberger fight if he wasn’t capable of it.

Pick: Shields by decision

UFC Fight Night 25 begins at 2:30 Saturday afternoon with a preliminary card streaming on facebook. The four-fight televised portion of the event airs tape-delayed at 9 on Spike.

 

Middleweight Bout: Court McGee (13-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC) vs. Dongi Yang (10-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC)

Line: McGee -165, Yang +135

Matchup: McGee won the 11th season of the “The Ultimate Fighter” and showed improvements in his first bout after the show by submitting Ryan Jensen. Yang is a logical next step. The striker made a name for himself on the Asian MMA circuit before signing with the UFC a year ago.

Pick: McGee by decision

 

Featherweight Bout: Jonathan Brookins (12-3 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. Erik Koch (12-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC)

Line: Brookins +155, Koch -185

Matchup: Get ready to see how well Brookins can take a shot. Michael Johnson knocked Brookins down before he came back to win the championship match of “The Ultimate Fighter” 12. Koch is a lot more dynamic striker, both with his hands and legs.

Pick: Brookins by decision

 

Middleweight Bout: Alan Belcher (16-6 MMA, 7-4 UFC) vs. Jason MacDonald (25-14 MMA, 6-6 UFC)

Line: Belcher -280, MacDonald +220

Matchup: MacDonald showed no ill effects from a near year layoff when he beat Ryan Jensen at UFC 129 five months ago. Belcher is coming back from his own 15-month injury hiatus to fight in his hometown. Belcher’s only loss in his last five was a controversial split decision to Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 100.

Pick: Belcher by TKO

 

Lightweight Bout: Cody McKenzie (12-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) vs. Vagner Rocha (6-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC)

Line: McKenzie +130, Rocha -160

Matchup: Both are astute Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners, but Rocha is ahead of McKenzie with a black belt. The 6-foot McKenzie will have a reach advantage, but the bout will likely find its way to the floor somehow.

Pick: Rocha by submission

 

Lightweight Bout: Evan Dunham (11-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC) vs. Shamar Bailey (12-3 MMA, 1-0 UFC)

Line: Dunham -500, Bailey +350

Matchup: Bailey is fresh off of “The Ultimate Fighter” 12 and making his drop to 155 pounds. Dunham was in title talks at this time last year before dropping a decision to Sean Sherk and losing to Melvin Guillard via knockout.

Pick: Dunham by knockout

 

Welterweight Bout: Matt Riddle (5-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC) vs. Lance Benoist (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Line: Riddle -200, Benoist +160

Matchup: The Las Vegas-based Riddle, who appeared on the seventh season of “The Ultimate Fighter”, has quietly stuck with the UFC and pieced together a solid record. Benoist is a newcomer who has finished all five of his professional fights in the first round.

Pick: Riddle by decision

 

Bantamweight Bout: Ken Stone (9-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs. Donny Walker (15-7 MMA, 0-1 UFC)

Line: Stone -120, Walker Even

Matchup: Loser looks for a new job. That’s harsh, but probably accurate for this matchup of two 135-pounders with mediocre résumés.

Pick: Walker by knockout

 

Welterweight Bout: Clay Harvison (7-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. Seth Baczynski (13-6 MMA, 0-1 UFC)

Line: Harvison +125, Baczynski -155

Matchup: Harvison is a brawler who throws caution away in his bouts. Baczynski will have a size advantage, as he previously competed at middleweight.

Pick: Baczynski by submission

 

Welterweight Bout: T.J. Waldburger (13-6 MMA, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mike Stumpf (11-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Line: Waldburger -225, Stumpf +175

Matchup: Two grapplers who have shown little power meet in this one. Waldburger suffered a first round knockout loss to Johnny Hendricks his last time out.

Pick: Stumpf by decision

 

Featherweight Bout: Mike Lullo (8-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs. Robert Peralta (14-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Line: Lullo +135, Peralta -155

Matchup: Peralta is a late replacement, who likely caught the UFC’s eye with a wild split decision victory on the undercard of Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley. Lullo ran into top lightweight prospect Edson Barboza in his UFC debut, losing via TKO.

Pick: Peralta by TKO

 

Welterweight Bout: Justin Edwards (6-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs. Jorge Lopez (11-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Line: Edwards +300, Lopez -450

Matchup: Lopez is a legitimate 170-pound prospect who trains locally at Wand Fight Team. Edwards spent time in Las Vegas too while on the most recent season of “The Ultimate Fighter”, which ended with a close split decision loss to Harvison.

Pick: Lopez by knockout

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.