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January 25, 2015

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Pollster: Latino voters no lock to back Obama

President Barack Obama’s standing with Latino voters has weakened to the point that he cannot count on them to secure his re-election in 2012, a Democratic pollster warned Thursday.

In a memo set for release from the prominent Democratic firm Lake Research Partners, pollster Joshua Ulibarri writes that while Latinos still gravitate more toward the Democratic Party, Obama’s “current numbers among Latinos are not what they need to be if they are to be a base vote protecting against a surging Republican vote among working class and senior white voters.”

In a poll conducted this fall by Lake Research, only 43 percent of Latinos said Obama’s job performance was good (25 percent) or excellent (18 percent). A majority rated his performance fair (33 percent) or poor (22 percent).

The survey tested 600 Latino voters in 25 states with high-density Latino populations between Sept. 26 and Oct. 5.

On the congressional level, Latino voters still break strongly for Democrats, according to the poll. Fifty percent of Latinos in the poll said they would vote for a Democrat in the 2012 congressional elections, while just 24 percent said they’d vote for a Republican.

But both parties hold dismal job approval numbers among Latinos. Seventy-one percent of respondents said Democrats in Congress were doing a fair (42 percent) or poor (29 percent) job. That number was only a little bit higher — 76 percent — for the congressional GOP.

“The difference between Democrats and Republicans, while both do very poorly, is in intensity, with 29 percent of Latinos believing Democrats are doing a poor job compared to 38 percent who believe Republicans are doing a poor job,” the pollster writes. “That 9-point difference helps protect a Democratic lead in the congressional ballot.”

The memo argues that amid a prolonged economic downturn, Latino voters have become less optimistic and less inclined to believe the American dream is attainable.

“This attitude, that it is becoming harder to reach the American dream, is extensive but a bit more dramatic among women (74 percent harder) compared to men (69 percent). In fact, younger men are the only group where fewer than seven in 10 (67 percent) believe it is becoming harder to reach the American dream,” it says. “Latinos are not more optimistic for the next generation of Latinos. Seventy-one percent of registered Latino voters believe it will be harder to achieve the American dream for the next generation, compared to just 9 percent who believe it will be easier.”

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  1. Did Latino voters do well under George Bush? Or was it undocumented people who entered the country illegally?

    People in this country legally, people of different color, would be insane to vote for one of the current Republican candidates for President of the United States. Legally insane!

  2. These poll numbers are about the same as the general population . As long as republican hopefuls continue to push the hard line against the undocumented Latinos won't vote for them . Give them a man like Ronald Reagen who will provide a path to legalization for the undocumented then Latinos will vote republican . Otherwise the Reagen amnesty recipients and their family's will vote the republican party into the dust.

  3. "'Pollster: Latino voters no lock to back Obama' (by) Alexander Burns, Politico"

    Not sure if people see this, but the title of this article says one thing, but you read further in the article, even though the polls are emphasized that try to convince people of it, they actually point the other way.

    I'm not sure if the writer swings toward the right (which Politico does alot), but if any sane viewer of this article reads between the lines, it really shows the Latino citizen voters in Nevada in fact CLEARLY don't sign on with the Republican Party mantra. They never have.

    A good example of this back on November 2, 2010. After Sharron Angle threw out totally inappropriate attack ads that pretty much demonized the entire Latino vote all as illegal immigrant aliens bent on causing crime and stealing American jobs; completing the picture with tough looking Latinos in the ads wearing bandanas, flashing gang signs, REALLY, REALLY playing up on some stupid stereotype that is totally false. As an aside, and it is readily evident in comments to LV Sun articles, whenever you mention about Latino American voters here in Nevada, ones who are registered to vote and are actually American, the ultra-righties go absolutely ballistic and start changing the subject and talk about illegal immigration ensues. In other words, the immigration issue has nothing to do with voting, but in the neo-conservative mind set, it MUST have something to do with it. Stupid.

    The simple fact of the matter, and no polls can be twisted to serve the neo-conservatives, is that the Republican Party HATES Latinos, and would rather play towards the Caucasian vote by demonizing them with weird xenophobic references. THAT is the Republican Party nowadays.

    To try to change in mid-stream, after years and years and years of this type of campaigning, is simply ludicrous and totally false.

    Sure, President Obama and his administration has its failings, but it has showed, in word and deed, they are more on their side than any Republican could ever hope to portray.

    I think I can safely say the Latino vote out here KNOWS in their heart they stand no chance voting Republican. It would be totally and completely contrary to any ideal they have or ever will have in making their life a little bit better. Especially when an entire political party (Republican) preaches nothing but hate directed at Latino issues.

    That is sadly the glaring truth about it. You ask me, no amount of propaganda pointing otherwise is going to be believed, or change the horrible facts the Republican Party constantly portrays about them.

  4. "People in this country legally, people of different color, would be insane to vote for one of the current Republican candidates for President of the United States. Legally insane!"

    Well, considering Obama is Bush III, it must be equally as insane, if not more so, to vote for him.

  5. and Democrats don't want to make it easy for Hispanics (or anyone else) to get citizenship or work permits. Their union backers don't want cheap labor immigrating to the U.S.