Berkley faces doubting Democrats, but won’t recede

By Jon Ralston

Sunday, May 1, 2011 | 2:01 a.m.

One lobbyist, a Democrat, shook his head and almost mournfully asked the question, “Is there any way Shelley Berkley can win that race?”

Nearby, another lobbyist, a Republican, declared, “She’ll be out of the race by Labor Day.”

That Carson City snapshot epitomizes the irrational exuberance of Republicans about the demigod also known as Dean Heller and the Democrats’ unreasonable cynicism about a mercurial lady named Shelley Berkley.

This is a story of perceptions versus reality, with Democrats fretting perception becomes reality. That perception is undeniable and pervasive that Berkley cannot beat Heller, especially now that he is about to be inducted into the Club of 100.

This is all about the Democrats’ worries that Berkley will not be nearly as disciplined as Heller, that she won’t sell well outside of the South and that she has an apparently immovable (and rich) primary foe who will deplete her resources and raise her negatives.

And there’s more: Two smart gaming executives recently told me they thought Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist Jane Ann Morrison’s piece urging Berkley to get out of the race was dead on. They are fearful of losing the state’s clout because of Berkley ceding her seniority and Ways and Means seat (as did Heller!).

I find all of this to be quite humorous for many reasons.

First things first: I consider it extraordinarily unlikely that Berkley, after agonizing for months over this decision before finally getting into the contest, will simply pull an Emily Litella now. I don’t know how she would explain it: She already realized the loss-of-clout argument and considered how well she has to do in Clark County.

I am sure there are still some Democrats — surely not Meddler-in-Chief Harry Reid — who would love for Berkley to get off the field and allow Secretary of State Ross Miller to take on Heller. But that seems awfully foolish and shortsighted.

After they withheld their embrace for so long, Reid and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are brimming with Shelleylove. The marriage may be one of convenience, but they will — they must — follow through on their vows of support.

Berkley is a far, far better candidate than Reid, who, you may recall, also was sealed in a sarcophagus at this time last cycle. Yes, Dean Heller is not Sharron Angle. But he’s not invincible, either, and if Angle does win that 2nd Congressional District special election, how will the sound of the “Heller-Angle ticket” sound to the soon-to-be-appointed senator? (No wonder the GOP is so intent on putting the kibosh on her ambitions, and no wonder Angle is referring to the Establishment as the “left wing of the Republican Party.”)

Team Berkley and many Democrats believe that Heller’s voting record will be out of step for Nevada in 2012, especially in a presidential year when the state’s burgeoning Hispanic vote could be crucial. But Heller’s elevation to the Senate also provides him with a way to define himself in the South — the most substantial political advantage he garners from John Ensign’s departure. As a senator, Heller will open a Las Vegas office, which will become a thinly disguised campaign headquarters to perform constituent and special interest outreach. That could help immensely.

Berkley also can’t shed businessman Byron Georgiou, whose appearance on “Face to Face” this week and hiring of national consultants indicates any attempts to squeeze him out by Reid and the DSCC have so far failed. They tried to dissuade consultants to go with Georgiou, but he still managed to get Joe Trippi and Paul Maslin to sign on.

Georgiou gushed about how he had hired consultants who will “be in the Hall of Fame, their numbers will be retired at the end of their careers,” showing that for a nonpolitician he does have a gift for hyperbole.

“I’m in it to win it,” he said, but will he spend a fortune to do so? I still say that’s a much bigger problem for Berkley than Heller getting a new title.

Some think Reid will cajole Georgiou into running for Congress. But I think Georgiou, who lost two congressional races in California, would see that as beneath him now, and he probably thinks Reid should try to talk the congresswoman out of the race to make way for him (he clearly thinks he can kill Berkley with her vote for the bank bailout). But if the Meddler-in-Chief could score an ambassadorship or Cabinet position, that might satisfy the confident Georgiou. Think big, senator.

Despite the nattering nabobs turning up the anti-Berkley volume, I sense she’s in it to win it, too. Her work ethic and the Democratic machine are unmatched. And, in case anyone hasn’t noticed, we’re still 18 months from the election, so no pronouncements, from lobbyists or even pundits, mean much.