Early voting in mayoral race up, but who does it favor?

By Delen Goldberg

Sunday, June 5, 2011 | 2 a.m.

This much is certain: More Las Vegans voted early for mayor in the general election than in the primary.

What that means is up for debate.

Not surprisingly, both Carolyn Goodman and Chris Giunchigliani argue that a higher turnout favors them. Polls and political analysts side mostly with Goodman.

In the two weeks of early voting leading up to the April primary, about 26,000 people voted for mayor, either at polling places or by mail. This time, in the general election, more than 31,000 people voted early. Election Day should bring totals to 50,000 to 60,000, compared with 48,000 primary voters.

Early voting ended Friday. Election Day is Tuesday.

“As long as turnout remains above primary turnout, we view that as a good thing for us,” Goodman campaign manager Bradley Mayer said. “That’s because it is likely made up of veteran general election voters who didn’t make it out to the primary.”

Conventional political wisdom says most of those voters will be older and white, demographics more likely to support Goodman. They’re the residents who most often vote in municipal elections, they’re of Goodman’s generation and likely favor her more conservative positions. Goodman also is more of a known quantity: Her husband, Mayor Oscar Goodman, is wildly popular and would easily win re-election if not for term limits.

Even a 50,000-voter turnout would be considered high for a mayoral race. Four years ago, Goodman won re-election with less than 27,000 votes, of which he received a whopping 84 percent, enough to make a general election unnecessary.

Carolyn Goodman also enters the race with a significant head start. She won more than double Giunchigliani’s votes in the primary, earning 37 percent to Giunchigliani’s 17 percent.

But Giunchigliani’s campaign has not given up hope and although it acknowledges the race will be close, it insists she can win. Campaign manager Gary Gray said higher turnout actually favors Giunchigliani.

“The more people that vote, the more it balances out the demographic,” Gray said.

In other words, by Gray’s reasoning, higher turnout can be attributed to a greater number of young, minority, first-time voters, who are more likely to pull the lever for Giunchigliani.

Giunchigliani’s strengths are grass-roots campaigning and her get-out-the-vote effort, and she has been known to come from behind on Election Day. In fact, Giunchigliani trailed Larry Brown in the mayoral primary after early voting results were tallied, but ended up beating him for second place on Election Day.

Still, the majority of polls have shown Goodman trouncing Giunchigliani. The latest, conducted by UNLV’s Cannon Survey Center and paid for by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and KLAS Channel 8, showed Goodman receiving 48 percent of the vote to Giunchigliani’s 30 percent. Eighteen percent of voters were undecided.

The Giunchigliani campaign immediately questioned the accuracy of that poll, calling its methodology flawed. Nine percent of respondents said they didn’t plan to vote in the mayoral race; almost 3 percent couldn’t remember if they had voted in the primary.

Gray also argued Giunchigliani supporters aren’t around to answer the phone and participate in surveys. “They’re at work or out working for the campaign,” he said.

Mayer said the R-J poll parallels their internal and exit polling. Indeed, several independent surveys have shown a similar double-digit spread.

Only one poll has shown Giunchigliani in striking distance, and that was paid for by her campaign. It found her trailing Goodman by just 2 percentage points.

Even with the perceived advantage, Goodman’s campaign is not taking a win for granted.

“The only poll that matters is the one that comes out on Election Day,” Mayer said.