Debt-limit votes could go to the wire

By Karoun Demirjian

Friday, July 29, 2011 | 12:28 p.m.

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House Speaker John Boehner’s debt-ceiling bill is now on the House floor, after he sweetened the deal by promising lawmakers a change: In addition to requiring that Congress pass a bipartisan package of cuts before President Barack Obama could raise the debt limit, it’ll have to pass a constitutional amendment to balance the budget, with spending capped at 20 percent of the gross domestic product.

It’s essentially a two-stage version now of the GOP’s “Cut, Cap and Balance” bill, which means Boehner should have no problem getting it past the House — but makes it more unlikely that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will pick it up in the Senate.

But if the House even wants it to be up for consideration, it’s up against a hard deadline. Because of procedural hurdles in the Senate, Reid has to have some piece of legislation by midnight tonight in order to have any prayer of completing this process by Tuesday.

“This is the last train out of the station,” Sen. Chuck Schumer said Friday morning. “If we are unable to come to a compromise, there is virtually no time for the Senate to do anything.”

After a rough ride, the House does now look to be on track to get Boehner’s bill through the House and to the Senate in time for Reid’s deadline. But functionally, it may not matter anymore. Now that the balanced budget amendment is a part of Boehner’s bill, it will take Senate Democrats more procedural moves to sidestep its objectionable content, meaning it’s not any faster-moving of a vehicle than is Reid’s bill on its own.

The problem in the Senate is the threat of a filibuster — all but omnipresent generally, and an especially acute problem in a case as controversial as this. But setting up vote to avoid a filibuster requires some forward planning.

If Reid takes the opening step at midnight tonight, he has to allow one full day, plus one hour of the Senate being in session, before he can call a vote, in which he’ll have to get 60 lawmakers to vote in support of his plan.

It could all mean a series of long nights at the Capitol: Reid could call the Senate back into session at midnight Sunday, and the earliest possible time he could hold the first vote is at 1 a.m.

If he gets the 60 votes he needs, that starts a 30-hour clock where lawmakers can debate before he can force the next vote, to close the debate — a vote that would take place between 7 and 8 a.m. Monday.

It then it takes another 30 hours to set up the final passage vote on the bill, meaning a final vote to pass the legislation wouldn’t take place until early Tuesday afternoon.

The country defaults at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday.

Lawmakers could save time if they don’t avail themselves of the full 30 hours, but if Senate leaders can strike a compromise, running out the clock actually helps them, because it leaves Boehner less time to fight back.

Because the players have used the bill-as-train metaphor, let’s keep it going: If a train leaves the House going full speed on the momentum of just GOP votes, and another train leaves the Senate going full speed on the momentum of both GOP and Democratic votes, which gets the country past the threat of default first?

But that whole scenario depends on Senate Democratic leaders achieving a compromise with Senate Republican leaders before 1 a.m. Sunday.

“I’ve invited Senator McConnell to sit down and negotiate with me in good faith. I hope he’ll accept my offer,” Reid said Friday. “Right now, this is the only compromise there is.”

From the White House, Obama also moved to augment his outside influence, calling on the country to engage in a full-court press of Congress.

“Make a phone call, send an email, tweet,” Obama said. “Keep the pressure on Washington, and we can get past this.”

The last time the president suggested that action, on Monday night, it nearly shut down the Capitol switchboard.

Nevada Rep. Joe Heck’s office line reported receiving between four and five times as many correspondences on Tuesday than usual. “Overwhelmingly,” said Heck spokesman Darren Littell, “they want Congress to work together to find a solution.”

But that’s effectively being postponed until the House completes its business. Over in the House, Boehner’s bill is moving toward Friday evening vote.

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