Democrats see path to electoral strength in final Census numbers

By Anjeanette Damon

Published Thursday, Feb. 24, 2011 | 2:28 p.m.

Updated Friday, Feb. 25, 2011 | 9:39 a.m.

Republican and Democratic number crunchers are busily analyzing the official Census data that arrived today as the parties prepare to redraw the state’s congressional and legislative districts.

According to the data, Clark County’s share of the state’s population has grown 3.4 percent in the last year. That means Clark stands to pick up two Assembly seats, one state Senate seat and one congressional seat.

The Assembly seats will come from Republican-rich rural counties. The state senate seat could come from Washoe and rural counties depending on how the lines are drawn.

Democrats in particular are excited about how the numbers are trending. Nevada is now 46 percent minority. The Hispanic population, which was key to both President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s victories, grew by 82 percent.

Republicans will push hard for two of the four congressional districts, seeking to protect CD 2 and add Republicans to CD 3.

But expect Democrats to demand three congressional seats. Democrats have a 15 percent voter registration advantage in Clark County. And it would be difficult to draw a Republican 4th Congressional District because Republicans are scattered throughout the county rather than living in a few GOP-dense areas, according to one Democratic source.

Also, pushing more Republicans into the U.S. Rep. Joe Heck’s district could potentially weaken the 2nd Congressional District for the party.

In any case, even as state lawmakers begin redrawing the maps, few believe the final word will rest with the legislative branch. As Sun columnist Jon Ralston reported this morning, Democrats have already filed what amounts to a place-holder lawsuit in Carson District Court.

UPDATE: As those aforementioned data-crunchers drill deeper down into the data, they've decided Clark County likely will receive just one additional Assembly seat from rural Nevada instead of two if the Legislature remains at its current size. In an indication of just how far into the numbers they are going, they discovered Washoe County is entitled to about half an Assembly seat more after looking at the numbers to the thousandth decimal place. Because Washoe and Clark counties can't split a seat, Clark will just get one seat from the rurals.

Get your abacuses out. Redistricting is going to be a fun one!