Sam Morris / Las Vegas Sun
UNLV coach Lon Kruger talks to his team during a time out against San Diego State during their game Saturday, February 12, 2011 at the Thomas & Mack Center. San Diego State won 63-57.
Tuesday, Feb. 15, 2011 | 2:15 a.m.
UNLV vs. Air Force
UNLV Rebels (18-7, 6-5) vs. Air Force Falcons (13-10, 4-6)
Where: Thomas & Mack Center
When: 7:30 p.m.
Coaches: Lon Kruger is 155-69 in his seven seasons at UNLV and 473-302 in 25 overall seasons; Jeff Reynolds is 49-66 in his four seasons at Air Force and 131-100 in eight overall seasons.
Series: UNLV leads, 24-8
Last time: UNLV won, 64-52, on Jan. 15 in Colorado Springs, Colo.
Line: UNLV by 15
TV/Radio:The Mtn./ESPN Radio 1100 AM/98.9 FM
THE REBELS
G Oscar Bellfield (6-2, 185, Jr.) 10.8 ppg, 3.8 apg, 2.3 rpg.
G Anthony Marshall (6-3, 200, So.) 10.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.9 apg.
G Tre'Von Willis (6-4, 195, Sr.) 12.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.2 apg.
F Chace Stanback (6-8, 210, Jr.) 13.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg.
F Quintrell Thomas (6-8, 245, So.) 5.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg.
Bench:G Derrick Jasper (6-6, 215, Sr.) 6.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.1 apg; F Brice Massamba (6-10, 240, Jr.) 4.0 ppg, 2.2 rpg; G Justin Hawkins (6-3, 190, So.) 5.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg; F Carlos Lopez (6-11, 215, Fr.) 5.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg; G-F Karam Mashour (6-6, 200, Fr.) 2.4 ppg.
What to watch: UNLV has to rebound the ball, plain and simple. The first meeting with Air Force was one of the Rebels' best efforts on the boards all season, out-doing the Falcons 36-26, with Chace Stanback and Derrick Jasper each grabbing 11. It helped them stay close in a game where the outside shooting wasn't so hot. Strength on the boards will give the offense some cushion.
THE FALCONS
G Michael Lyons (6-6, 190, So.) 12.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.0 apg.
G Evan Washington (6-4, 190, Sr.) 7.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.0 apg.
F Todd Fletcher (6-2, 180, So.) 4.9 ppg, 2.7 apg, 2.4 rpg.
F Tom Fow (6-6, 205, Sr.) 12.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg.
C Taylor Broekhuis (6-10, 210, So.) 8.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg.
Bench: F Derek Brooks (6-5, 200, Sr.) 9.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg; G-F Taylor Stewart (6-5, 190, Jr.) 3.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg; G-F Mike Fitzgerald (6-6, 195, So.) 3.5 ppg; F Zach Bohannon (6-8, 205, So.) 4.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg; G Shawn Hempsey (6-2, 180, Jr.) 1.2 ppg, 1.2 rpg.
What to watch: Tom Fow is a tough match-up for the Rebels. In the loss to UNLV in Colorado Springs, he had 12 points and was 3-of-4 from deep. He only took seven shots in 26 minutes, but if he can pop free for more deep looks, it could hurt UNLV in a hurry. His 49.1 percent 3-point shooting leads all Air Force regulars.
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While winning Saturday's home game against San Diego State would have helped solidify UNLV's NCAA tournament résumé, the 63-57 loss certainly didn't kill it.
What it did, though, was make this week as pressure-packed as they come for the Rebels (18-7 overall, 6-5 Mountain West).
They'll host Air Force at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday in front of what will likely be a sparse crowd at the Thomas & Mack Center. After that comes a trip to face Colorado State on Saturday afternoon.
And should the Rebels get past the Falcons, Saturday's game, in the eyes of some, becomes the most crucial contest of UNLV's season.
The Rebels themselves are trying to focus on the tasks at hand, and that right now is sweeping the season series from the Falcons, but what many around town would rather talk about is the team's status come Selection Sunday on March 13.
"You have to assume that they win the games they're supposed to win, and (Colorado State) is a team UNLV is in direct competition with not only for third in the league, but also on the (NCAA tournament) bubble," said Andy Glockner, who writes the Bracket Watch and Bubble Watch columns each Monday for SportsIllustrated.com. "If UNLV can win that game in Fort Collins, I have a strong sense that UNLV will finish third in the (Mountain West), and that's huge.
"The game in Fort Collins is the biggest game they have left this season."
In his latest Bracket Watch entry, Glockner listed UNLV as a 9-seed in the East region, playing No. 8 George Mason in the first round in Cleveland, Ohio.
He's not alone with that opinion.
ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi, in his updated Bracketology post on Monday morning, also had the Rebels as a nine, playing 8-seed Saint Mary's in Tulsa, Okla.
"They have a couple of decent wins, most of their losses aren't in any way disgraceful," Glockner added. "From the standpoint of today, UNLV is fine.
"The game Saturday his huge. It's a huge, huge game. If they lose that one, no matter what they do at The Pit (next Wednesday), they could maybe end up going 0-6 against the top three teams in the league while sweeping the bottom of the conference. That's not a compelling profile."
Outside of impending back-to-back road games at Colorado State (17-7, 7-3) and New Mexico (17-8, 5-5), UNLV's three other games are all against teams they've beaten this season — Air Force, Wyoming and Utah.
Glockner said he believes that the Mountain West, as of right now, will get four teams into the 68-team NCAA tourney field, and UNLV holds a scheduling edge over CSU and UNM in the race for third place in the league.
The head-to-head matchups will be monstrous for the Rebels, but the Rams and Lobos each still have to go on the road to face both BYU and San Diego State.
UNLV's profile also got a bit of a boost in the last few days thanks to a couple of teams the Rebels beat during the non-conference season — Wisconsin and Kansas State.
The No. 13 Badgers took down then-No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday afternoon in Madison, Wisc., 71-67. Then, two days later, after Kansas replaced the Buckeyes at No. 1 in both polls, the Wildcats potentially salvaged their season by slamming the Jayhawks, 84-68, in Manhattan, Kan.
Another factor aiding the Rebels is an NCAA tournament bubble that's a bit softer than normal, combined with the field being expanded from 65 to 68 teams this season.
"UNLV is clearly ahead of all of these teams around the cut line," Glockner added, citing the likes of Virginia Tech and Florida State. "But they could play themselves into trouble if they lose these two road games, and, honestly, I think the Colorado State game is bigger. I think a loss at New Mexico probably would be a little more understandable than getting swept by Colorado State."
The reason for the soft bubble, Glockner said, is two-fold. First, there are major divides between the teams at the tops and middles of the so-called power conferences. Compounding that is a lack of worthy candidates from some of the mid-major leagues to help fill the at-large voids.
Still, all of this talk will be moot if the Rebels stumble on Tuesday night, and much-improved Air Force (13-10, 4-6) already showed UNLV once that it can't be taken lightly. Lon Kruger's club escaped with a 64-52 win in Colorado Springs back on Jan. 15, but needed a game-ending 19-2 run to do so.
"We started out slow, everybody wasn't really on the same page, kind of gave up some easy buckets in the beginning, myself included," junior forward Chace Stanback recalled. "In the end, I felt like we were in sync, started to gel, started to knock shots down.
"They're definitely a more aggressive team offensively, their players are looking to score more, like (Tom) Fow, he's playing pretty well, (Michael) Lyons is shooting the ball pretty well."
The Falcons have a strong recent history at the Mack, too.
UNLV has won three straight at home over Air Force, but the average margin of victory in those games is just 6.7 points, including a 60-50 scare last season.
The Rebels are no strangers to playing with their backs against a wall in February, either.
In 2008-09, after starting the season 13-2, they stumbled to an 8-9 finish, exiting the NIT in the first round. Last season they got off to a 12-1 start, but were 13-8 from that point on, falling in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
As for this year, since a 9-0 start, UNLV is 9-7.
Still, no matter what the experts and bracketologists say as far as them being 'safely in' at this point, the Rebels know they have to block those thoughts out as much as possible.
The room for error is minimal.
"We know that we've got our opportunities coming up," junior guard Oscar Bellfield said recently. "I'm sure it's in the back of everybody's mind throughout the season. Really, we can't focus on that, because if we don't focus on these games coming up, mess around and lose a few, then we probably won't have a chance. We have to take each game one at a time, each win at a time.
"We try to think that we don't have any wiggle room and that we have to get every win possible."
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