What the poll numbers mean

By Jon Ralston

Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2010 | 2:01 a.m.

Harry Reid and Sharron Angle are dead, one in an occasional series:

But on Nov. 2, one will be alive, if only barely, having risen from the dead despite being buried with the asphyxiating baggage of four decades in Nevada politics or being entombed with the hyperventilating rhetoric of a year in the Tea Party.

With just over a month until early voting, it’s unlikely the campaigns will ascend beyond the ethereally cerebral heights they have achieved so far: Reid is some kind of Beelzebub out to destroy the state and national economies and Angle is nuttier than Norman Bates. Messages received.

But with four polls out in the past week — including three on Tuesday — all showing the race within the margin of error, it’s worth digging into these results to see where the race really stands and to see whether we can discern what the campaigns have actually accomplished.

The results were as follows:

Mason-Dixon for the Review-Journal: 46-44, Reid

Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News: 45-44, Angle

Ipsos Public Affairs for Reuters: 46-44, Reid

Rasmussen Reports: 48-48

A few comments must be made about the pollsters and their samplings. Mason-Dixon had had some success in Nevada but its margins have been significantly off in key races in recent primary and general elections. Pulse Opinion Research is a division of Rasmussen and both use automated calls with recorded voices to do their polling — they are known as controversial and seen as GOP-leaning by many observers. And Ipsos is an international company, but this Nevada sample is bizarre, weighted heavily toward Republicans in a state where Democrats still have a registration edge — it’s noteworthy that Brian Sandoval has a 29 percentage point lead (!) over Rory Reid in the survey, which is probably twice what even Sandoval’s folks have it measured.

The accuracy of any of these polls is dependent on how skillful the pollster is in predicting what the turnout will be Nov. 2. Registered Democrats have a 5 percentage point edge in Nevada — 42-37. The samples all reflect some GOP edge in turnout — and even the most optimistic Democrats agree that will occur here and elsewhere. The estimates range from Mason-Dixon’s model — 43-41 for the Democrats — to that ridiculously skewed Ipsos model, which gives the GOP a 10 percentage point edge.

So the first point to discern from these polls, all of which lean to the GOP a little or a lot, is this: Whether they like it or not, the Angleophiles have to know that Reid being up a couple of points or in a dead heat in these models means he is probably doing pretty well. That’s just simple math, folks, and it’s why most insightful observers, including Republicans, think the race leans slightly to Reid.

But despite Angle’s serial self-immolation attempts, with Reid’s ads doing a bit of scorching themselves while using her own words as kerosene, the GOP nominee is still in the race, as is revealed in the polls, skewed as some of the samples may be. To wit:

• Both Mason-Dixon and Ipsos found that more than 70 percent of Nevadans believe the economy is the preeminent issue facing the state. No, that’s not surprising. But every time Reid is forced to talk about the economy, it helps Angle. (One interesting note, though: In the Ipsos poll, by 47-41, likely voters think Reid “understands the economic issues Nevada faces.” If she doesn’t win that, she doesn’t win.)

• Ipsos found that Reid’s lofty perch isn’t helping him much, despite the usual juice arguments. More than half of independents say his majority leader position will “make no difference” and only 17 percent say they will be more likely to vote for him because of it. A blessing, perhaps, for the state, but more of a curse this year.

• Reid still has sky-high negatives and that will not change. Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon found more than half the voters view him unfavorably, which is usually fatal for an incumbent. But showing how this truly is a tale of two Dead Politicians Walking, Angle’s negatives are 46 percent in Mason-Dixon and 55 percent — higher than Reid’s — in Rasmussen. The power of negative ads.

As goofy as some of the internals in these polls are, the toxic atmosphere for Democrats, and especially Reid, helps explain why a candidate as damaged as Angle is still competitive. But her news release Tuesday about the polls contained a patently misleading headline: “Recent Polls Show Sharron Angle’s Continued Momentum.”

Unless, of course, she meant downward momentum since June 8. So can Angle still win? Of course she can.

Over Harry Reid’s dead body.