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StumbleJon Ralston:
Atmospherics are terrible for Reid, but he will hold on
Sunday, Oct. 31, 2010 | 2 a.m.
Harry Reid or Sharron Angle is dead, last in an occasional series:
It just feels as if Reid is going to lose.
Forget the enthusiasm gap — that word is too mild. There is a passion gap in this race that is palpable. You don’t find many people shivering with excitement to vote for Reid. But the feverish animation of voters hot to oust Reid is unlike anything I have experienced in nearly 25 years of covering politics. And it seems to have been building since January, evidenced by Reid’s inability to move his highly elevated disapproval rating.
It just feels as if he is going to lose.
But I don’t think he will. Why?
First, let me be clear on this tradition of predictions. It is not a wish list but a walking out on a limb, so I can either crow afterward or eat same. I base them on data I am privy to and my gut. I have had much success in the past — look it up. But if ever there were a year for my lifetime batting average to take a hit, this is the one.
So take this for what it’s worth:
Harry Reid is the most resilient figure in Nevada political history. He should not even be here. He lost a U.S. Senate race in 1974, embarrassed himself in a mayoral race in 1975 and should have lost his re-election bid in 1998. But he found a way to win 12 years ago, and he will again Tuesday.
How? Let me count the ways:
Considering they were dealing with a moribund politician, and one who was sure to make their job more difficult during the year with his spontaneous effusions, Reid’s handlers have run one of the most spectacular campaigns in history at all levels: The turnout machine is formidable. The TV has been pitch perfect. The strategy — to peel moderate Republicans and independents who might not like their guy away from Angle — has worked.
And, perhaps equally important, Republicans managed to nominate the one person this year who could lose to Reid.
Angle is a natural retail campaigner in small political subdivisions. But that’s not what a Senate race is about. And her campaign never could find a comfortable way to reconcile her past, controversial statements — they tried massage, change and deny — and she made plenty more during the campaign (Sharia law here, Canada’s terrorist conduit, Latinos-in-ads amnesia).
In the end, if she loses, I believe the six weeks following the GOP nominee’s primary win — she had a double-digit lead in June polls — were pivotal. During that period, the Reid ad campaign defined her so starkly and turned enough people into Anglophobes to give him a chance.
One more thing: Republicans do not have the huge turnout advantage in early voting they should in a wave election — under 4 points. And all the data I have seen tell me that unless Reid loses independents by 15 points or so, he will hold on.
It’s possible none of this made any difference, that Reid has been dead all along and no amount of campaign brilliance or Angle exposure could resuscitate him. The hatred is palpable, the discontent bubbling over. But I think he finds a way to survive.
The result: Reid, 47 percent; Angle, 45 percent; rest, 4 percent; none of the above, 4 percent.
Some other predictions:
Governor: When you have a 40 percent negative going into a race because of your last name, you have to either 1) Not run; or 2) Delicately distance yourself from Dad and then destroy your opponent. Rory Reid probably should have chosen 1) and he failed to execute 2).
Brian Sandoval, 51 percent; Reid the Younger, 42 percent; rest/none, 7 percent.
CD3: Rep. Dina Titus & Co. have gone out of their way to blacken Joe Heck — tying him to Angle, distorting his legislative record, airing a brutal closing spot starring a cop denied insurance coverage. But despite her money advantage, Titus simply can’t stanch the bleeding among independents — and I think that costs her the race.
Heck, 48 percent; Titus, 46 percent; rest, 6 percent.
Legislature: Democrats have a 12-9 edge in the state Senate. It will not change. Benny Yerushalmi will take Dennis Nolan’s seat, but state Sen. Joyce Woodhouse will lose. In the Assembly, Democrats have 28 seats. After Tuesday, that number will be 25.
Miscellany: I have a feeling one or two constitutional officers could lose. I fear the appointing judges question will lose. I think Shelley Berkley and Dean Heller will be re-elected — after Tuesday’s carnage clears, I may need those to boost my average.
ralstonflash@gmail.com / 890-7997
Discussion: 20 comments so far…
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Dear Jon
I was waiting for someone to analyze the early voting stats and your the best .
I have read all 3 letters to the editor as well as Brian Greenspuns thoughtful column and like most people I keep trying to understand why given all the facts there is such a large number of people who are supporting Angle.
My take is that some of the criticisms about where we are as a nation are in fact real and a lot of voters are extremely upset as to their financial condition.Human nature being what it is some people look for someone to blame and at that point they lose the ability to make sound judgements .That's why there is only one word to sum them up,it's called Zealots.
My take is that we have to sincerely hope that enough people who can think clearly will do the right thing on Tuesday and that we will avoid a catastrophe
Your a strong voice for hope
Ralston is one big obnoxious cheerleader for the Democrat party.
He is so funny though.
I have never seen or hear of a political pundit or reporter saying that they "seen the data" and therefore and have "seen the light" on the truth and then cite the source of the data coming from a political campaign.
OM freaking G!!!!!!
You look so foolish, Ralston.
As usual, queue the tea-nuts to attack...
Give me a break!
How can one be "one big obnoxious cheerleader for the Democrat party" (Btw, it's Democratic. Learn proper grammar.) when one's predicting a sorry NV-Gov loss, losing NV-03, and losing some legislature seats? That doesn't sound like "cheerleading" to me.
And btw, NV-03 is the one area where I veer from Ralston. I actually think Dina Titus will win along with Harry Reid, but I do think her margin will be much tighter and I think NV-03 is more likely to be "the cliffhanger of the night" (recount perhaps?) than NV-Sen (I think we'll know the winner there before midnight).
Jon crows I AM THE BEST "I base them on data I am privy to and my gut. I have had much success in the past -- look it up."
Well the BEST Jon note again and again and again that it is all about the Reid smear campaign.
"I believe the six weeks following the GOP nominee's primary win were pivotal. During that period, the Reid ad campaign defined her so starkly and turned enough people into Anglophobes to give him a chance."
It seems all Democrats can do is smear.
"CD3: Rep. Dina Titus & Co. have gone out of their way to blacken Joe Heck -- tying him to Angle, distorting his legislative record, airing a brutal closing spot starring a cop denied insurance coverage."
Democrats can not run on their PASSED polocies so they SMEAR, SMEAR, and SMEAR.
"It seems all Democrats can do is smear."
Future, the "smearing" you thought you saw was simply publicizing Angle's past positions, votes and her own words. That you think quoting her is smearing her tells us you have a perilously low opinion of Angle.
Let me again "smear" the Assemblywoman with some questions based on her own words. Questions she will not answer, notwithstanding the public's right to know where she truly stands.
http://sharronangle.blogspot.com
Jon gives GOP 2 outta 3 and they still cry. Certainly good analysis but personally, I hope Jon takes his hit this cycle but not for harry but the other 2 and Dems go 3 for 3. 35% left to vote. Let's go!
Enjoyed your predictions, Jon.
I differ with one area though. Representative Titus, who has shown nothing but superb service, will not be upseated by Joe Heck. Because everyone knows Joe Heck is just an opportunist. He looks around and tries to run for whatever race he thinks he can win. And he offers nothing. And people see this.
I hate to see an empty suit like Sandoval, who doesn't know what his kids look like, win over Reid, but if it happens, I'll live with it. Just another knucklehead Republican who will carpet bomb education, police and fire institutions around Nevada in order to try to balance a State budget. In other words, Gibbons II. Except he probably don't know how to hide girlfriends in Reno Airport bathrooms.
he is down double digits in the latest polls lol , rasmussen 57 - 32 , cnn 53 - 38 , lvrj 55 - 38 . That basically blows your prediction according to your own sandards . I don't believe you didn't have that info before your predictions , so its basically what you hope to happen , not an educated prediction...
The prior post was about independents , Reid is down double digits and according to Ralston won't win based on that , so he is basically predicting a reid win while dismissing his own standards.
There is nothing "democratic" about the democrat party.
"Rep. Dina Titus & Co. have gone out of their way to blacken Joe Heck"
Could we have come up with a better phrase?
Reid shoved health care down our throats.
Reid help hand children a $40,000 debt that
will only get worse with his big govt. in your
face politics.
Oh remember this? We have lost the war.
And you can still vote for this guy?
Grow a brain.
"Rep. Dina Titus & Co. have gone out of their way to blacken Joe Heck" should have read:
"Rep. Dina Titus & Co. have made sure the general public knows the bleak future they can expect if they elect Joe Heck."
The ONLY way Dingy harry wins is through voter fraud. If this happens, it will touch off a fire storm that ends the dem party as it is currently constituted, maybe completely.
The anti-Angle brainwashing that you see evidence to the left and right of this article is still not going to be enough. Try to say extreme another 3 million times before Tuesday, and it's still not going to help. Ralston has already called the polls suspect and skewed. He has always endeavored to affect the election, not report on it. The NY Times put Angle's chances to win at 81.3%, after 100,000 simulations. If you need any evidence that Ralston has been in the tank for Harry the whole way, here is exhibit "A".
Of course Reid will win. The brainiacs in Nevada will continue to do the same thing over and over while expecting a different result. Anyway Democrats win all close races because their cheating is good for 3-4 points. How do you think Al Franken became a senator???
The ONLY way Crazy Sharron wins is through voter fraud. If this happens, it will touch off a fire storm that ends the Republican party as it is currently constituted, maybe completely.
I'd say that in every State that a Dem needs to be running at least 4 points ahead to have a chance of winning because of Dems who won't bother to go to the voting booth.
Things may be a little different in LV but Reid has gone down to -4 over the last couple of days.
Seems like he'll be going into retirement which won't just please Las Vegans but the majority of people all over the country too.
I think Heck v. Titus will take days to resolve. Women don't like Heck. Titus wins by 100 votes.
Reid will win by 2100 votes.
Reid Jr. by loses by ten points.
You might be right, mred but according to a poll that came out this weekend, Heck is 10 points ahead.
We will know on Tuesday night.
I have feeling that a quite of few koolaid drinkers will be Jack Daniels drinkers on Wed morning.
I disagree. I have met or know too many Republicans with actual thinking brains who are scared to death that Angle is going to get in and who rushed to early vote for Reid.
Even the Elko Daily Free Press has endorsed Reid in Tea Bag Land. Most people know that Angle is a fraud.
Why would someone be "scared to death" of Angle, renomuse? Does she have the nuclear codes? Maybe she's in some line of succession for the presidency? She may shoot fellow senators if she wins? Seems to me the ones who are scared of her are the irrational ones.
This election might be one that convinces me all polls are memes, peddled by pseudo-scientific rent-a-wonks. If the Dems hold on to both houses of Congress, we should all be calling for Rasmussen's head on a punch card.
It appears when the Patriot Majority PAC buys an ad at the Sun they buy the whole publication. Interesting that Sharron Angle hate ads appear on either side of Ralston's propaganda. NV Conservatives don't be fooled. Show up on Tuesday!
The media bias here is amazing. I was going to watch football with my father but instead I am going to go work at a phone bank. You may believe what you wrote but the ads and every comment today is geared towards reelecting corruption. Was Angle in the movie Casino? No! Did she sell out Nevada? NO Is she controlled by unions? NO! Did she double our nationsl debt? No Did she author the health care bill to take away our choices? NO
Did she fail to look out for Nevada? NO Nothing is more scary than losing freedoms, a leader who fails to listen to those who employ him. The coward wouldn't even meet with voters at town hall meetings, he screened phone calls. My father said he will bring a big crow for you a week from Thursday.
Harry is scary. The election is about the economy, cap and trade, illegal immmigration, health care and national security. Harry loses on every issue! If we want corruption then we at least need someone who will bargin for Nevada, seems he gave it away to Louisiana and Nebraska.
Senators vote, we know she will vote to make America's small business' competitive again, he will vote to raise taxes; she will vote no on Cap N Tax, he will vote to increase taxes again; she will vote to secure the border, he will vote to continue to allow drugs to cross into our country as well as lose American jobs and treat the good people of Mexico like slaves when they arrive here. Illegal Immigration is our generation's form of slavery; She will vote to allow competition to create a medical insurance environment which makes sense, he wants the Goverment to take over all of your medical choices; She is strong on Nation Security, he is weak.
With all that, every article today favors him in this wonderful paper of yours. Have to go now, Boo
I think its hilarious that for the most part the obnoxious and insulting people are the very same who do not verify their identity.
Hey, is it really about whether or not we thing Sharron Angle is worthy? I think not. We have no expectations of her. She isn't going to do anything to hurt us. It's all about Mr. Reid. Have you forgotten that he blindly, and stupidly, adopted the arrogance of our president? Why would we want him as our senator when he doesn't listen to us? Time to go home to Searchlight.
Dear atdleft:
The Major Political Parties are Republican and Democrat, they are both Nouns. I am a Republican and you are a Democrat. The "Democratic" (Adjective) canard was started by FDR following the propaganda meme started by Wilson. "If you aren't Democratic, you are undemocratic"
If you insist, please have the state of Nevada change the party and label to Democratic and for my information, how long have you been a Democratic? How many Democratics are in Nevada? Who will the Democratics support for President in 2012 and 2016?
Angle is scary. The election is about the economy, global warming, illegal immmigration, health care and national security. Angle has NO UNDERSTANDING OF ANY of these issues! If we want sanity and not dogma then we at least need someone who will bargin for Nevada, seems she will gave it away to the Koch brothers, Bahrain, Dubai, Singapore and Communist China interests!
The Sun's circulation and statute will grow when Nevada has a Republican governor, two Republican Senators, and two Republican Congressmen. The Sun will truly then be the Opposition Newspaper they crave to be.
I see Mr. Ralston has analyzed the fraud vote. You can always count on the dems to commit massive amounts of voter fraud through the SEIU thugs in charge of the voting machines to having the dead and pets vote.
Sharron Angle is running to supposedly protect Our Rights, but what she really wants to do is to Take Away Our Rights.....No Medicare, No Social Security, No Students Loans, No Pell Grants, No Unemployment Benefits, No Maternity Leave, No Womens' Rights to Chose, and No Regulations On Big Business. What she does want is to SHIP JOBS OVERSEAS,AND EXTEND TAX CUTS TO THE WEALTHY... SHE WANTS TO CONFUSE PEOPLE BY HER LIES ABOUT HARRY REID, SHE WANTS TO DENY GOVERNMENT RUN HEALTH CARE TO OTHERS WHILE SHE IS ON IT HERSELF....SHE IS NOT A CANDIDATE FOR THE PEOPLE....She runs away from reporters because she doesn't know how to answer any questions unless they are from Fox News. DON'T BE TRICKED INTO VOTING FOR HER!!!! DEFEND YOUR RIGHTS AND VOTE FOR HARRY REID....
Harry Reid will win. He was born and raised in Nevada and will always have Nevada's best interests at heart. Sharron Angle is a hypocrite. She will take social security away and what next? Disability benefits for Vets or the Disabled? My father is a Retired Marine (30)years. I didn't have a father around because he was fighting in Korea twice and Vietnam and she wants to take his benefits, Fat Chance. My brother also a Marine. My Uncle Navy etc. If it weren't for families like mine Sharron wouldn't get to live so well on her husbands Government benefits. So take her down Harry. GOD BLESS AMERICA LAND OF THE FREE
Harry Reid has already taken Medicare away from Seniors to the tune of 500 billion but it's Angle who wants to take stuff away from Seniors? Please explain
I have to say to all the people talking about voter fraud by the democrats LOL I'm pretty sure we should have had a man named AL GORE as president once upon a time!!! Remember that? Voter fraud I think that will never be topped.
Andrew Davey -
Pompous elitest Fool, Harry is going to lose because of the "Tea Nuts" as you so kindly put it.
Andrew, that's all the extremists have left, to call people with whom they disagree names. When the whole nation rejects their agenda these faux elitists have nothing. These radicals are even bringing up the 2000 election, how sad and pathetic is that?
you seem pretty confident in your prediction. did one of your buddies over at SEIU tell you how they programmed the voting machines?
I was contemplating my own percetage prediction for the Reid/Angle race. I think Jon has Reid getting the absolute maximum he can - 47%.
My prediction is: Reid 46.5%,Angle 45.5%, with Other/None at 8%. Many voters are simply going to leave the Senator choice blank.
Possible, but only if Reid's fraud machine operates at its full potential. Those who rail against the massive "secret" donations from the Chamber of Commerce, while having no problem with the larger amounts unvoluntarily extracted from union members, are
perpetuating propaganda of the worst
kind. Many Americans don't have the
time to research all of the claims flying
by so repetition of lies do filter in.
FACT: the "secret" donations are from
domestic members of the Chamber who
largely have a pro-business agenda, which by definition would be an anti-
Obama agenda.
FACT: the union donations favor card
check, federal support (courtesy of the taxpayer) to restore the full value of mismanaged union pensions, closed shop rules, mandated union workers for public projects and higher minimum wage. Many unions and their members would be classified as marxist/socialist/communist based.
If you are more afraid of your
neighborhood pharmacy than you would
be of a communist cell meeting down
the street, by all means, fight to reverse the Supreme Court decision.
On the other hand, if you support small
and large business owners or if you
believe business (non unions, not Obama) create jobs, then ignore the
ridiculous false accusations coming from the president and his bots.
Deliver a split Senate to D.C. for the
sake of the country and the economy.
The important race in Nevada, IMO, is the gubernatorial election. The winner is going to face a very difficult job. It seems that the only way to form a budget will be to raise taxes, but with Nevada's econonomy being as fragile as it is, that may be economic as well as political suicide.
But when the total votes cast for Governor is compared to the total votes cast for Senator, I predict there will be a large number of voters who do not make a selection in the Senatorial race. The Nevada Senate race really had a huge amount of stink on it, from the beginning to the end.
"This election might be one that convinces me all polls are memes, peddled by pseudo-scientific rent-a-wonks. If the Dems hold on to both houses of Congress, we should all be calling for Rasmussen's head on a punch card."
No - you shouldn't be voting at all, because the results are predetermined.
Comment removed by moderator. Comment was in all caps.
"I have read all 3 letters to the editor as well as Brian Greenspuns thoughtful column and like most people I keep trying to understand why given all the facts there is such a large number of people who are supporting Angle."
What you should rather try to understand, why given all the facts, there is such a number of morons, that fall for the electronic voting machine scam.
Ralston:
1) Will look like geninus if Reid wins.
2) Will look like idiot if Reid loses by less than 2 points
3) Will look like a total idiot if Reid loses by 4 points or less
4) Will be a laughingstock if Reid loses by more than 4 points
I expect the only way Harry Reid maintains his seat is if there are a sizable number of questionable ballots cast and counted.
With unemployment at the 15% mark there, there is no reason to even THINK you should vote for Reid. If you do, what are you hoping for, 20% and a complete meltdown of the economic system ???
Harry Reid ran the senate and oversaw the TRIPLING of unemployment there.
It doesn't matter what you think of the opponent, Harry Reid has to go. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results. We have all seen the results of Harry Reid, insanity would be to put him back in to duplicate those same ones again !!!
"Ralston
1) Will look like genius if Reid wins."
If you consider the announcement, that you'll get screwed as genius, you deserve what you'll get after that.
Jon are you serious or simply delirious? Reid was up after Angle won the Republican nomination. Since then he has been consistently sliding. Secondly, you obviously do not understand the tsunami that is coming on Tuesday called voter turnout. 3rd, people who take the time to vote do not want to vote for none of the above...they will take the chance on Angle believing that no one, and rightfully so, could be as pathetic a leader at Reid! You keep talking about message, Reid's handlers and all this other nonsense. Why don't you move to PERFORMANCE!!! Give the people some credit!!! I will write you again after Tuesday just to explain further why you were so dead wrong!
One other thing Jon,
Reid lost the debates hands down. How can that happen with a person who has spent so many years in Congress supposedly understanding the issues. Here comes the newcomer Sharon and she beats him at his own game. Explain that. The only explanation is that you are liberal...now it makes sense!
No, it just feels like Reid is going to WIN!
I don't see the tidal wave of Republicans getting elected as some have predicted.
In California, Jerry Brown is 10 points ahead of Meg Whitman. She really believes she's going to win.
Vote for Harry Reid!
Reid will win because of his ground game. Polls are nice but it's the voters that actually show up and vote for their candidate that decide elections!
Anyone who likes our current recession, and wants more of the same, should voter Republican on November 2nd..
If returned to power, the GOP will take us down the same road that got us in our current mess....
Who knows, maybe we will get to experience another 1930's Great Depression....We all know what party was responsible for bringing that about....don't we!!
It seems like there are more new, or unfamiliar names posting against Reid than in favor of him, especially in the last few days. That would seem to be indicative of the "enthusiasm gap."
Voters don't really care if it's Sharon Angle or Lieutenant Dangle - The NATION wants Reid G_O_N_E! and I am confident Nevada will reflect the Nation.
We owe our veterans better than to bring them back from war to a collapsed and divided nation. As we can see the right wing is back in full force hiding now under the name of the tea party. The very same people who started us in two wars, an economic depression, and caused irrevocable damage to our nation now want power back. How quickly the people are willing to forget that what caused this insanity in the United States; will soon seek to be in power. How much worse can it get for the United States? We ask"well we shall soon find out. Because like in the movie One Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest the inmates have taken over the asylum. If Nevada thinks that 15% unemployment is high wait until the Republican House of Congress, and Senate vote not to extend Unemployment Benefits than we will truly see just how bad it is!! The Republicans are for the interest of the very rich, and manipulate the middle class in order for the rich to keep their wealth and power. Republicans now do not represent Socialism they are representative of Communism with the power in the hands of the government. We seem to have forgotten that it was the Democrats that allowed millions of Americans to remain in their homes, and the ability to feed their children. How bad can it get, well we all have to buckle ourselves in now it is going to be a bumpy ride.
We owe our veterans better than to bring them back from war to a collapsed and divided nation. As we can see the right wing is back in full force hiding now under the name of the tea party. The very same people who started us in two wars, an economic depression, and caused irrevocable damage to our nation now want power back. How quickly the people are willing to forget that what caused this insanity in the United States; will soon seek to be in power. How much worse can it get for the United States? We ask"well we shall soon find out. Because like in the movie One Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest the inmates have taken over the asylum. If Nevada thinks that 15% unemployment is high wait until the Republican House of Congress, and Senate vote not to extend Unemployment Benefits than we will truly see just how bad it is!! The Republicans are for the interest of the very rich, and manipulate the middle class in order for the rich to keep their wealth and power. Republicans now do not represent Socialism they are representative of Communism with the power in the hands of the government. We seem to have forgotten that it was the Democrats that allowed millions of Americans to remain in their homes, and the ability to feed their children. How bad can it get, well we all have to buckle ourselves in now it is going to be a bumpy ride.
I think a lot of voters will make the effort to go to the polls to cast a vote in the gubernatorial race. Many of these voters are and will be so turned off at the thought of voting for either Reid or Angle that they will leave the choice blank.
That's going to be a big reason why neither Senate candidate, IMO, will get more than 47%. 45% may be enough to win.
Jon,
I think and hope you are right about Reid. If Reid wins, Titus wins. If Reid looses, Titus looses.
Over the past few months I have spent quite a bit of time talking to Dina. I think she is one of the smartest, hardest working, and most honorable politicians I have ever met.
Many are put off by her drawl. However, she has forgotten more about Political Science than most in Congress will ever know. She isn't the powerhouse Reid is today. But, if we can keep her in the congress, I expect great things from her in the future.
I hope you are wrong about her chances.
We owe our veterans better than to bring them into the political fray.
Commenters need to quit pandering to the voters by using veterans as pawns...
Voters typically break down to four cases:
Case 1: I like both Candidate A and Candidate B.
Case 2: I like Candidate A.
Case 3: I like Candidate B.
Case 4: I dislike both Candidate A and Candidate B.
The campaigns then formulate tactics based on poll numbers showing how potential voters are divided among the four cases. The Nevada Senate race is unique because Case 4 holds more potential voters than normal. Because Case 4 is so large, it is likely that there will still be Case 4 voters on election day.
Normally, a Case 4 voter would simply not make the effort to vote. However, there is a critical race for Governor of Nevada, the outcome of which is likely to have a great impact on the voter. Thus, there will be a large number of voters casting their ballots EVEN THOUGH THEY DON'T GIVE A RAT'S A$$ ABOUT THE SENATE RACE. How these Case 4 voters vote will probably decide the Nevada Senate race.
Now, all this would be a moot point if the Chicken Lady had been nominated. Thanks again, Republicants/Teabaggers for your choice of June 8th! You breathed life into the old boy!
Give 'em Hell, Harry Reid! I hope the banned TV stations don't miss out on anything over at the Crazy Angle Concession Headquarters!
Aaaaaarrrgghhhh! That wallpaper ... !!! I'm going to have nightmares.
Harry Reid is on his way to a solid win.
I think you are wring Jon. I think the people you hang around with influence you too much. Harry will not only lose--there will be no need for a recount. I believe his time is over.
Thank you, SUN. The new wallpaper is much better. Now I only have to cover the right hand border.
Bwaaaahhahahahahahahah!
Give'em Hell, Harry Reid! Good luck Tuesday vs. the "Disaster".
Harry Reid in my opinion deserves to lose to Sharron Angle even though I think that Angle is extreme and out of the mainstream because Reid literally tried to rig the 2008 Democratic primary in Obama's favor from behind the scenes about like how WWE wrestling matches are rigged from behind the scenes. All of this is verified in the book "Game Change" by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin starting on page 33 and in this Podcast interview that I did:
http://www.solidprinciples.com/index.php......
Solid Principles Podcast: Episode 34
"Not So Wild About Harry: We speak to Political Analyst Mitch Dworkin on Sen. Harry Reid, and his overlooked involvement in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination of then Senator Barack Obama."
Harry Reid secretly trying to rig a very important Presidential primary, intentionally lying about it to the country, and his picking a sincere but inexperienced Obama to be President (who I think is being eaten up alive right now by Rush Limbaugh, FOX News, and by other experienced Republican media professionals) are just "unforgivable sins" in my opinion. Reid just went too far and he could easily do something like this again if he gets a blank check for another 6 year term which is why I view Sharron Angle, who would only be 1 bad Senate vote out of 100 from my standpoint, as being the lesser of two evils in the Senate when compared to Harry Reid. However the evils of both of them are so great in my opinion that having to choose between Reid and Angle is about like having to choose between whether you would rather go blind or deaf!
Mitch Dworkin, M.Ed.
http://mitchdworkin.com/
Objective Political Research & Analysis
Jon Ralston is the Gold Standard among the Silver State's political prognosticators.
He states that with the privy information available to him, Harry Reid wins a 4th term - 6 more years.
The pugilist from Searchlight wins and all is well again in Nevada.
Using the words "Veteran" associated to anything related to Harry Reid is blasphemy, sacrilegious and pure absurdity - rolled into one giant hairball that makes me want to vomit!
As our Veterans were actively fighting insurgents and terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan -- A war that can turn on a dime when the various factions switch loyalty by predicting who has the stamina and strength to WIN -
Harry Mason Reid (Mormon) bellowed on the floor of the US Senate " THIS WAR IS LOST" !!!
It doesn't matter what side of the "decision" you might be on -- A US Senator sold his Nation's fighting men and women down the river for some temporary political gain..That is Harry Reid
I believe Jon is wrong,this democratic family is voting Republican because Harry is Obamas point man.The cut in medicare ,amnesty,cap and trade.Basicaly the liberal agenda of the Dems will sink them.
If Sharron Angle Wins, Then Nevada loses Big time.
If Karl Rove Wins, then the USA loses! It is very simple, if one votes to put the GOP in power, we will become a fascist state! I don't understand why the Tea Party members are unable to see this. As poor as I am, I will try to get out of this country.
The GOP has only one thing one their agenda: Ruin the USA!
No reason for Nevadans to vote out Reid, the Republicans are likely to take the House already. If Angle is in the Senate, she won't be able to do anything to help Nevada.
RealClear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...
Even the PPP, a Democrat poll, has Angle in front by 1 point now. The RCP average has her at 2.7 points ahead.
If Angle loses I hope the National Guard is called up to prevent the ditto-heads from going to their "2ND Amendment Remedies."
Also, the FBI should monitor the hate talk radio stations in town to prevent violence to our elected leaders by fringe kooks.
Wrong. He's done.
Where do we go from here?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/evelyn-rob...
--> Restoring Sanity and/or Fear <--
Starting with turning the so called sin city into a Christian fortress (back to the roots, which always was Atlantis).
Mr ed states that he wants to call up the National Guard if Sharron Angle wins...
WHAT???
The so called "illuminated" ones are deluded fools, because no one can ever become a god human on the left hand path. It's the road to the void.
I've already voted for Reid, but was not exactly thrilled by it, and neither are many Democrats anywhere else thrilled by the prospect of voting for Reid. His opponents' hyperbole aside, in this Senatorial contest we are faced with two candidates: the Republican, and Sharron Angle.
i concur mred. I've got a second amendment solution to their second amendment remedies, but it shouldn't come to that.
Wednesday HEADLINES - CNN
The Las Vegas Sun, a pair of magic Mormon underwear and a SE Asian boxer's favorite voodoo doll - could not save the political career of Harry Mason Reid - The new Searchlight librarian.
Once the ego occultists become aware of the consequences of what they're doing, the entire power structure existing today will fall apart.
"DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!"
Not so fast. No so fast.
"Harry Reid is on his way to a solid win."
Thank you "teamster" for all of your dedicated comments supporting Sen. Reid! I hope you have inspired all good Democrats to get out the VOTE tomorrow!
Larry Vegas: In reply to your comments about the veterans; as a resident of San Diego/Coronado, California for almost fifty years, the largest Navy town in America you can hardly accuse me of using our veterans for anything. I have lived with the World War 2 generation all of my life. Everyone I know is a veteran.
George Bush sent our troops back and forth three and four times to fight two wars. Our veterans have never been treated in such an inhumane way. I am hosting a job fair, healthcare, and education fair as a resource for our veterans and their families. I have been working on this very special event as a volunteer for seven months, six days per week. You can never say I use the veterans for anything. What have you done for our veterans lately? Obama has done more for our veterans in the last two years than any of our presidents. VOTE FOR HARRY REID PLEASE!
Two things are going to decide what happens on Tuesday, party turnout, and how the 3rd-party and unaffiliated voters go. That's why I'm not remarking on the early voter stats, we don't have any numbers for other than the main parties.
The Sun's non-scientific poll is useless other than to get an idea of the makeup of its readership.
First Confession...
"I've already voted for Reid, but was not exactly thrilled by it, and neither are many Democrats anywhere else thrilled by the prospect of voting for Reid."
Sorry to hear that, but you did and now you will have to tell your grandchildren: "In 2010, I voted for Harry Reid."
I am sorry to tell my grandchildren that in 2010 America lost it...People are saying that they are sorry for voting for a man that wants to give the healthcare, better jobs, and extend unemployment for millions of Americans that would otherwise be homeless. Now where is the Christain Right and the Republican party with their family values now that people actually need something. We see a man standing there that wants to bless us, and help us, who has fought for us for over twenty years and we say that we are sorry that we have to vote for him.
We should be proud to vote for him. We should Thank him for his dedication and service. Have we no sense of graditude. Think of all of the disabled, women, and children that would be homeless without men like Harry Reid to help them. I say that becuase I would be PROUD to vote for Harry Reid. He is a great man who LOVES his country not just by words but by action. The sadest thing about this is that the middle class and the poor are voting against themselves and their own families. VOTE FOR HARRY REID!!
"It seems like there are more new, or unfamiliar names posting...."
I am someone who has only posted a total of 2 comments to any of Jon's articles but have read many.
I have learned alot about history and I say thank you to those who have posted history accurately and not revised it to make a point.
What I would like to say now is this and only this.
It seems those who want Ms.Angle to be our next Sentator feel that Democrats are the only people collecting Unemployment and that only Seniors who are Democrats will be affected if Ms Angle is able to in some way get rid of Social Securtiy and/or Medicare or any of the other things she has said she would try to get rid of.
I also think that if you can't bring yourself to vote for either of these canidates, then vote for someone from the other parties whose views are the same views as your own. But to think that all the name calling and the half truths are helping your cause is shame. You are not helping but hurting your causes.
This election might be all about jobs, jobs, jobs.
Given this, the candidate lacking job plans needs to be voted out until coming out with fresh ideas.
Harry is bringing jobs to Nevada and I am proud
and glad that I voted for him.
I am also proud and glad that I voted for
President Obama.
I don't always agree with Mr. Ralston but I think he is correct. Never underestimate Reid. Sharron ran an excellent campaign. Reid hired some of the best copywriters for his campaign. I think Reid may win to the surprise of all.
What it looks like, someone is pissed on about the sanity rally:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/...
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotost...
A vote for Senator Reid is a Vote for illegal immigration. Why in the world would he Vote NO on English being the national Language for the United States Government, why would he vote Yes on giving Illegal aliens Social Security benefits, Why would he applaude the President of Mexico,against Arizona Governor- Senator Reid also voted in favor of illegal immigrants getting social services, food stamps,medical, dental, housing, he have NO problem giving away OUR money. What was he thinking, he was not thinking about US.
Ralston....today's your day.
Will you be a.... for saying Reid would win
Genius? If Reid wins
Regular idiot? If Reid loses by less then 4 points
Total Idiot? if Reid loses by 4 points
Complete Bozo? If Reid loses by more than 4 points
It's the Economy Stupid.
All other logic and tea leaves reading is irrelevent.
Ask George HW Bush, who as an incumbent got beat by a slippery hick from Arkansas. There were 1,000 issues and yet, really, only 1 -- the Economy.
For those whose interest level rose only to watching TV ads -- and this is a majority of the electorate -- the Reid campaign's obvious, bad faith cutting and pasting of Ms. Angle's statements will end up being the reason HR loses by 10 points today.
Most viewers couldn't sort out what she actually said, and realizing that the apparent distortion was the work of political hacks, they give her the benefit of the doubt. Reid's people were too clever by half and will be looking for work soon.
"It's the Economy Stupid."
It's not the economy stupid.
I am just a tool, probably inspired from above and spent at least 4 months in a trance like condition, without having a clue why i am writing here at all.
Apart from that, i believe, the real adept will never be visible on the scene directly, but do the work through his disciples, whom he imparted all his knowledge.
Voting in anger is no substitute for voting with common sense. Sharron Angle is simply one lousy dandidate. She's already known as a lousy legislator in her state assembly, and that warrants getting her elected as US Senator? Doesn't make sense!!
A lot of things don't make sense for Democrats. Democrats are dismayed that everyone does not have the same political beliefs that the Democrats spew on a daily basis.
That is why Democrats are stymied by anyone would not vote for Harry Reid.
Looking at the whole Sun paper today reminds me of MSNBC. Lets see Fox News 82% of viewership, MSNBC 3%. I wonder who all those people are that watch FOX? Answer.... Mainstream America! People who write all the hate filled articules on Angle? losers! People who write all the hate filled comments in the Sun? Right again....losers. Sharron Angle will win. Reid and his hate filled followers will lose. See you all tonite at around 11:00 P.M. Hey Jon, hope you have tomorrows column finished.
"Voting in anger is no substitute for voting with common sense. Sharron Angle is simply one lousy dandidate. She's already known as a lousy legislator in her state assembly, and that warrants getting her elected as US Senator? Doesn't make sense!!"
Will not make sense either:
I believe the next 6-24 months will be business as usual and then interesting things start to happen.
The grand game is officially opened, but there is no need to hurry.
I m Republican and i voted for Harry Reid.
There is no way in hell i could support Sharron Angle. Seriously.
As far as me goes, i am done with this election and it's not up to me anymore what will happen next.
Markey is full of malarkey...
"I m Republican and i voted for Harry Reid."
OH YEA?
In his 7/18/10 at 7:48 a.m post, Malarkey stated:
"I left the Republican Party in 2000 after many years because I felt it had been hi-jacked by the religious right."
So there it is, another Harry Reid voter who is having a difficult time with truthfulness...
Markey- There is NO way in hell I voted for Senator Reid- I use to be a democrat
Markey is a Dem-wit, What a snake, just like Sinister Reid.
A Vote for Senator Reid is a vote for illegal immigration
Big defeat for talk radio. Most of the talk radio states went into a full blown propaganda mode for Angle. Goebbels would be envious.
What's it say about advertising on a hate talk station. If they couldn't sell Angle with all that effort, how would they sell a product or service?