Results of poll may please and confuse Reid campaign

By Jon Ralston

Friday, May 14, 2010 | 2:01 a.m.

Harry Reid is dead, one in an occasional series:

If you believe the Mason-Dixon poll conducted this week, the U.S. Senate contest is now a three-way race, which must leave the majority leader’s advisers both ecstatic and befuddled. They must be thrilled that the survey shows slippage by the woman they once feared most, Sue Lowden. But they must be scratching their heads trying to figure out which of the three candidates — Lowden, Sharron Angle and Danny Tarkanian — they would most like to face in the general election campaign.

With other data out there also reflecting uncertainty and some prescient pundits having impeccable timing, the race for the honor of becoming the most talked-about Republican Senate nominee in the country has become even more fascinating.

The Mason-Dixon poll, conducted for an anti-Reid tax-exempt organization based in Arkansas, indicated that Lowden has 30 percent, Angle 25 percent and Tarkanian 22 percent. With a margin of error of 4.5 percent, any of the three could be the front-runner, especially with only a quarter of voters expected to turn out June 8.

Even if you don’t trust the survey’s specific results — and I will get to some reasons not to — the salient issue with any pollster is trends over time. And it now seems inescapable at this moment in time — eight days before early voting begins and less than four weeks until the balloting — that Lowden is no longer the clear favorite to win the primary, that Angle is surging (although to what extent is unclear) and that Tarkanian still has a solid chance to win. (I expect Mason-Dixon will release general election results soon and we will see how much Lowden and/or the others are standing against Reid, who has been trailing to all three in those polls.)

Before discussing the survey and the state of play any further, a word on my view of polls: First, they are, as the hoary cliché goes, only a snapshot. Second, they are only as good as the methodology and the sample (more on this in a moment). And, third, they can be useful fundraising tools — to help and hurt — depending on the play they get.

This latest survey already is getting plenty of national attention and will fit into a meme national and local Republicans already fear: That Lowden’s campaign is hemorrhaging because of Bartergate. The pollster asked a halfhearted, inchoate question about Lowden’s extended chicken dance and found 70 percent said it would not affect how they voted. But that’s just silly. Most voters would not acknowledge the crazy story affected them, but it has come to define the Lowden campaign since April 6 — through all fault of her own.

The real issue for Lowden is that in any political race, once you start bleeding, you can apply a tourniquet (and she didn’t even do that until a month into the controversy) and slow the blood loss. But you can’t stop it, so the question for her now is whether she will be exsanguinated by June 8.

The Reid folks, who have found every conceivable way except a reality show to push Bartergate to the limit, must be smiling today. But in their relentless assault on Lowden, seen by them and national Republicans as the best candidate to topple Reid, they have raised questions about the fundamental premise.

Would they rather now have her, considering that ridicule is the most powerful weapon in politics and she has taken a molehill and turned it into a mountain? Or would they rather have Angle, moving up because of a TV campaign courtesy of the Tea Party Express, because they believe she can be portrayed as an extremist? Or maybe Tarkanian, who may be the most ubiquitous contender in the race, because of his baggage exposed in two previous races?

I don’t think it’s an easy call for them anymore. They are victims of their own success.

Having said all of this, I am not sure the poll can be completely trusted. It is done by random digit dialing, a technique that may not capture only registered voters. The gender breakdown is bizarre — 58 percent were men, which surely will not reflect the June 8 electorate. And the regional breakdowns are slightly askew, with Washoe County slightly overrepresented and Clark County and the rurals slightly underrepresented.

But problems aside, the trend seems clear. And if it’s true that Reid can’t be resuscitated despite all the Sturm und Drang the general may bring, the next 25 days determining the next senator from Nevada could be some of the most fascinating in the state’s colorful political history.