Care about Nevada’s budget mess, education policy? Legislative races are the ones to watch

By David McGrath Schwartz (contact)

Sunday, March 21, 2010 | 2 a.m.

While a high-profile U.S. Senate race captures the public’s attention, the candidates most likely to shape Nevada’s future are running largely unnoticed in a few competitive Assembly and state Senate contests.

The stakes are huge: Address a multibillion-dollar deficit (Raise taxes? Cut spending even more?). Pursue education reform. Redraw Nevada’s political boundaries for the next decade.

At issue is the level to which Republicans will participate in framing the Legislature’s solutions, or at least steering the discussion.

Democrats hold a two-thirds majority in the Assembly, empowering them to override a governor’s veto or pass a tax increase. But if Republicans can pick up one or two seats, they’ll have to be dealt with when tax increases are proposed or if lawmakers want to override the governor’s veto.

In the state Senate, Democrats hold an edge over Republicans, 12-9. Democrats would need to pick up two seats to reach that crucial two-thirds majority and essentially kill any leverage Senate Republicans have. They have identified a few seats that are competitive.

But Republicans think they can take out some Democratic incumbents. Still, regaining control of the Senate would be a long shot — some of the most vulnerable Democrats aren’t on the ballot until 2012.

But before the two parties face voters to determine which will control the Legislature, they’re going to fight it out among themselves in the primaries. And these fights could shift the partisan tone in Carson City.

The Democratic fights pit candidates endorsed by the establishment against grass-roots activists, many of whom were drawn to politics during Barack Obama’s 2008 run for the presidency.

Republican primaries, meanwhile, will be a referendum of sorts on the party’s direction: more conservative, anti-tax members — think Tea Party — arguing that the GOP has lost its way, against candidates endorsed by the party establishment.

Here are some of the key races that will shape the 2011 Legislature.

PRIMARIES TO WATCH

Clark County Senate District 9, western Las Vegas Valley

Senate incumbent Dennis Nolan has never been a favorite of conservatives.

Sen. Dennis Nolan

He sometimes advocated the kinds of government regulation — primary seat-belt law, mandatory motorcycle helmet law — that can raise the ire of conservatives. But last session he guaranteed a primary challenge when he supported the Legislature’s tax increase and the bill giving same-sex couples the right to enter domestic partnerships.

Establishment Republicans persuaded Nolan’s most formidable primary opponent to instead run against Rep. Shelley Berkley. Still, Elizabeth Halseth, a mother of three with a military background, is expected to make the race competitive.

As is the case with several Republican Senate primaries, at stake is whether Republicans choose a more centrist incumbent or send a more conservative voice to the state Senate.

Washoe Senate District 4, Reno

Sen. Randolph Townsend, the longtime top lieutenant of Sen. Bill Raggio, R-Reno, is being forced out by term limits.

The race to replace him is also one that will set the tone for the Republican caucus.

Assemblyman Ty Cobb

Assemblyman Ty Cobb, R-Reno, cultivated a Tea Party ethos before the term was even coined. One of his first acts as an assemblyman was to vote against Democratic Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, ending a tradition of unanimous votes for speaker. Since then, he’s had little legislative success, but has remained a voice against what he calls wasteful spending and higher taxes.

Cobb faces Ben Kieckhefer, a former communications director for Gibbons. Kieckhefer has emphasized his pragmatism and focus on policy, rather than ideology. Kieckhefer has the establishment endorsement from Townsend and Raggio.

Clark County Senate District 12, Boulder City

Sen. Warren Hardy retired and Assemblyman Joe Hardy, R-Boulder City, is running to replace him.

Sen. Warren Hardy, R-Las Vegas

A widely respected doctor, Joe Hardy has voted for tax increases and, like Raggio, represents the more pragmatic wing of the party, building bridges with Democratic leadership.

Patrick McNaught is the other Republican. He’s running to the right of Joe Hardy and being represented by conservative Republican political consultant Robert Uithoven.

Again, it’s a race in which Republicans will set the tone for their party in the state Senate.

GENERAL ELECTION RACES TO WATCH

Senate District 5, parts of Las Vegas and Henderson

Joyce Woodhouse took out then-incumbent Sen. Sandra Tiffany, who was under an ethics cloud at the time. Now Woodhouse faces a competitive race.

Her district encompasses the same area as the one held by Sen. Shirley Breeden, D-Henderson, who in 2008 upset incumbent Republican Joe Heck by about 700 votes.

But Republicans point out that President Barack Obama won’t be driving turnout this time, and their candidate, Michael Roberson, successfully lobbied the conservative Independent American and Libertarian parties not to field a candidate in that district. Those third-party candidates siphoned off 7,000 votes from Heck, a majority of whom would have theoretically gone to the Republican.

Democrats and Republicans see this as perhaps the most competitive district this cycle, as Democrats hold a slim 2,500-voter advantage. Republicans, including Raggio, are high on Roberson.

Senate District 8, Las Vegas

With voter registration essentially even, Democrats are targeting conservative Republican Sen. Barbara Cegavske.

The Democratic State Senate Caucus endorsed Tammy Peterson, an attorney at the influential law firm Jones Vargas. Also running in the Democratic primary is Mark Brandon, a former college football star who owns an insurance business.

Cegavske is seen as vulnerable in a divided district because of her more conservative positions, but she has also proved to be an adept fundraiser. She raised $224,000 in 2009 and spent $112,000.

The caucus’s early endorsement of Peterson drew protests from Democratic activists, but with the primary in June, there will be plenty of time for wounds to heal regardless of whom the party nominates to challenge Cegavske.

Clark County Senate District 9, western Las Vegas Valley

The Republican nominee, whether it’s Nolan or Halseth, will face a Democratic challenger who will benefit from a 4,000-voter registration advantage.

Democrats have a contested primary, but the Democratic Senate caucus has endorsed Benny Yerushalmi.

Clark County Senate District 12, Boulder City

Democrats trail Republicans by only 100 voters in this district. While a Democratic victory would be an upset, the party is talking up their candidate, Aaron Ford, who will face either Joe Hardy or McNaught.

Assembly District 40, Carson City and parts of Washoe County

With Democratic Assemblywoman Bonnie Parnell retiring, this represents Republicans’ best chance to pick up a seat. The district has 1,300 more registered Republicans than Democrats.

In the past, the GOP has been thwarted by Parnell, a former schoolteacher who is well-known in the capital. With Parnell retiring, three Republicans are running for the nomination.

Democrats’ hope to retain the seat rests with Carson City Supervisor Robin Williamson.

Assembly District 21, Henderson

Assemblywoman Ellen Spiegel rode the 2008 Democratic wave to win her first race and take a seat held by a Republican. But the district has 300 more Republicans than Democrats, making Democrats nervous about retaining it.