How GOP numbers add up for primary

By Anjeanette Damon, Reno Gazette-Journal

Monday, March 15, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Editor’s Note: Starting today, the Sun will publish Reno Gazette-Journal political columnist Anjeanette Damon’s weekly column.

When Assemblyman Chad Christensen, R-Las Vegas, announced he was considering a bid for U.S. Senate, some questioned how a conservative but relatively unaccomplished and little-known state lawmaker could have a shot.

In a brief interview in Elko last month, Christensen argued he is among the most viable candidates in the crowded Republican primary because he is the only candidate who has recently won an election.

Further, he said he is convinced that the 38,844 votes he received when he was re-elected to the Assembly in 2008 could be more than enough to put him over the top in a primary race with no solid front-runner.

So, let’s take a look at the numbers.

Turnout is hard to predict. But this race will get enormous attention because the winner will take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. With at least five organized, funded campaigns moving supporters to the polls, voter turnout could be higher than normal.

In 2006, the last contested statewide GOP primary, 140,505 voters cast ballots, or 29 percent of registered Republicans. If that rate holds true this year, the Senate candidates will be competing for the largest share of about 136,000 votes — the number is lower this year because there are fewer registered Republicans.

Say four candidates win a roughly even number of votes and the remaining candidates split the smaller amount. The winner conceivably could walk away victorious with fewer than 30,000 votes.

That might bode well for Christensen, except for the fact that he won 38,844 votes in the general election. Only 4,037 Republicans voted for him in his 2008 primary.

And Christensen isn’t the only candidate in the race with a track record for earning votes.

Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, R-Reno, convinced 24,349 Republicans to vote for her in the heated 2006 primary against Dean Heller for the 2nd Congressional District. She lost that race by just 421 votes.

Las Vegas businessman Danny Tarkanian won 64,235 in his 2006 Republican primary for secretary of state, a race he eventually lost to Democrat Ross Miller.

Race to replace Townsend

State Sen. Randolph Townsend, R-Reno, will leave the Legislature next year because of term limits. A moderate Republican, he has often been a key vote on taxes.

In the Republican primary to replace him, the leading contenders are strident anti-tax Assemblyman Ty Cobb, R-Reno, and a more moderate political newcomer, Ben Kieckhefer.

Some Cobb critics had hoped that only the two Republicans would file for the open seat, allowing the pair to head straight to the general — and a broader electorate than the red-meat Republicans who will likely make up the bulk of GOP primary voters.

Because it’s a heavily Republican district, Democrats didn’t line up a party-backed candidate for the race.

But the Independent American Party was the first to throw a wrench in that plan. M.K. Yochum filed to run on Wednesday. Two other Republicans then followed suit.

That means GOP primary voters likely will decide who goes to the Legislature in 2011.

Office openings

A trio of statewide candidates have opened Northern Nevada offices in recent days.

Former North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon, running for governor in the Republican primary, will join Gov. Jim Gibbons with a campaign headquarters in Carson City.

Democrat Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid, also running for governor, recently opened his Reno headquarters.

Tarkanian opened a Reno office Saturday.

Anjeanette Damon ([email protected]) is the Reno Gazette-Journal’s political reporter and writes the Inside Nevada Politics blog (rgj.com/inp).