A close race between two unpopular picks

By Jon Ralston

Friday, June 25, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Harry Reid is alive, one in an occasional series:

Two polls out Thursday compellingly make the case that Sharron Angle is in serious trouble in the U.S. Senate race while simultaneously arguing that the majority leader is in massive jeopardy. Instead of being contradictory, though, the results perfectly frame the Nevada U.S. Senate race, reflecting exactly what conventional wisdom (that is the omniscience we pundits possess until we are proven wrong, which hardly ever happens) has told us.

The two polls were conducted by Rasmussen Reports in Nevada and NBC and The Wall Street Journal in the U.S. The NBC/WSJ survey is considered a national bellwether while Rasmussen, despite successes in many states, has been a constant source of controversy because it is automated and, some left-leaners suggest, biased toward Republicans. (Polling expert Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com recently ranked the NBC/WSJ polls near the top and the RR surveys in the middle of the pack.)

The Rasmussen poll released Thursday found Angle leading Reid by 48-41, down from 50-39 in a survey by the same firm right after the primary. The poll of 500 likely voters taken this week (margin of error of 4.5 percent) would seem to indicate Angle is holding her own despite a pummeling on television and in the media. And a majority of Nevadans (53 percent) favor repealing health care reform, one of Reid’s signature achievements. That’s the good news for Angle.

But, as the Rasmussen write-up reports, it appears Angle’s bounce is over. And even more ominous for her, her unfavorable rating (47 percent) is nearly identical to Reid’s (49 percent). The ineluctable fact that more Nevadans feel “very unfavorably” about Reid (43 percent) than about Angle (33 percent) is the difference in the race.

I actually believe, based on other data I have heard about, that the race may be even closer than Rasmussen showed. And national pundit Stu Rothenberg, who recently wrote that Reid is still more likely to lose than not, has moved the contest into his “toss up/tilt Republican” category.

As Rasmussen wrote, “Despite voter unhappiness with Reid’s legislative activity, however, it is perhaps cause for concern for Republicans that Angle is already nearly as unpopular as the incumbent.”

The national survey also shined some light on the candidates and their vulnerabilities — if not directly, by extension. The poll was conducted last week and over the weekend by the firms of Bill McInturff, a Republican, and Peter Hart, a Democrat, of 1,000 Americans (margin of error 3.1 percent).

Reid’s campaign against Angle’s position on Social Security — and the subtext that her positions reveal her to be extreme — is validated by one part of the poll. Voters were asked to rate their enthusiasm about certain candidate attributes, and two that were measured, which are at the heart of Angle’s record, are extraordinarily toxic.

When asked how they felt about a candidate who “supports phasing out Social Security and instead supports allowing workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market,” only 24 percent said they were enthusiastic or comfortable while 66 percent said they were not. Almost identical results (25/67) were discovered when voters were asked if they support “abolishing some federal agencies, including the Department of Education.” Those numbers have to thrill the Reidites.

In the NBC/WSJ poll, the only other issue close to as negative a candidate attribute for voters (23/62) was someone who “supported the economic policies of George W. Bush,” so the 43rd president still can be used as an effective club.

Those numbers certainly show a path to victory for Reid. But the poll also showed it could be paved with destructive potholes. The negativity of the public toward the president and especially Congress is apparent.

Of those surveyed, 62 percent said the country is going in the wrong direction — and polls conducted here show a significantly higher number. Barack Obama’s disapproval rating (48 percent) is now higher than his approval (45 percent), so you will hear a lot more about Obama and Reid, with Speaker Nancy Pelosi thrown in for good measure. And why not? Congress is at 73 percent disapproval among the electorate, and last I looked, Reid was a congressional leader.

So these polls neatly frame the contest: If the election is about Reid the congressional leader who helped pass health care reform, presided over the failing economy and rubber-stamped the president’s agenda, Angle likely will win. If the election is about Angle and her manifestly unpopular positions, the majority leader will be re-elected.

Either way, all other things being equal (and they rarely are in campaigns), it should be close.