The middle’s ability to sway the election

By Jon Ralston

Friday, June 4, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Harry Reid is dead, one in an occasional series:

Or is he?

Only four days until the election and new polling data suggest a Sharron Surprise (can this be the right angle for the GOP?) may occur, leaving in its wake a Lowden Letdown (for national Republicans) and a Tarkanian Triple (three strikes and you’re out?).

My alliterative addiction aside, the story as June 8 looms is hand-wringing in GOP conclaves about an anointment lost (Sharron who?) and crowing in Democratic backrooms that Reid has chosen the Republican nominee (not exactly so, but the meme will persist).

That’s why Sharron Angle, imitating Chic Hecht’s hide-and-seek strategy from 1982 to avoid any last-minute gaffes, is now sequestered in an undisclosed location in rural Nevada. Her handlers surely realize that after kerfuffles over Scientology and Prohibition they don’t want to chance that Angle has to answer the Civil Rights Act question.

With that in mind — and your clear recollection that six months ago only one person you know foretold of a possible Angle upset — here are the answers to two pressing questions in a U.S. Senate race that in January — or April 5! — no one would have guessed would be remembered for chickens, Scientology and turtle tunnels:

• Will the Republicans unify against Reid after this messy primary? Short answer: Yes. Longer answer: That’s the wrong question, although it is what Lowden and others have talked about in recent days.

One of the seminal questions yet to be answered about this race is whether the feverish animus coursing through the body politic toward Reid will render many voters deaf to arguments about the majority leader’s juice to bring home jobs or his general election role as the lesser of two evils.

Most Republicans don’t really care about Reid’s ability as a porkmeister to bring home the bacon in the form of projects and jobs. The only thing they want coming home in January is Harry Reid. Changing their minds would be the equivalent of persuading the Tea Party Express to endorse Reid in the general election.

The race about to begin is not about Republicans or Democrats, beyond some de rigueur base-bowing by candidates.

This is all about the rest — the 160,000-plus nonpartisan voters and the 50,000 or so third-party voters. Nearly all of the latter will not vote for Reid and many of the former would rather stick needles in their eyes than do so, but that universe is the only one that really matters in November.

That is, this election is about Reid turning enough middle-of-the-road types into stay-at-home or third-party protest voters on Election Day.

So, yes, the Republicans will unify. But whither the independents?

• Who does Reid really want to win? Short answer: Angle. Longer answer: For months, media in boxes have been filled with “Lowden is a demonstrable evil” news releases from Team Reid, with the goal of leaving her more vulnerable when the general campaign began. I assure you the Reid folks did not anticipate her shaky moments, even though they certainly sent that party videographer to record her every public word just in case. (The April 6 Bartergate jackpot was as unexpected as three 7s on a Megabucks machine.) So now, you have to wonder, as Danny Tarkanian said to ABC News on Thursday, if Lowden can stand up to the Reid campaign buzz saw.

I still think Angle is the preferred choice because of what I argued above: This race is about the middle, not the left or right. Lowden can still appeal to that demographic; she can still tack leftward after Tuesday. I don’t think Angle is constitutionally capable (no, Sharron, I don’t mean it’s in the Constitution!) of doing so; I think she might suffer from debilitating acid reflux if she tried to speak anything less than Tea Party dogma.

One other delicate factor must be noted: It is always difficult for men to attack women in politics — they often look harsh and ungentlemanly. But assailing a hard-edged fighter of the right takes a lot less finesse and deftness than a more moderate former news anchorwoman. (Please save your sexist charges for someone who is; I am merely stating a historical fact.)

I have enjoyed the Meddler-in-Chief’s recent comments that he hasn’t paid attention to the primary or thought about who he would rather face. That proposition is as likely as Reid stepping down as majority leader should he win so New York’s’ Chuck Schumer can have the job.

Bottom line: By a small, Scientology-significant margin, Reid still wants Angle.