On fundraising scrutiny and Ensign’s bad year(s)

By Jon Ralston

Friday, April 2, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Here’s your Friday Flash of the week’s events:

• Spinning the numbers: So Harry Reid does what Teddy Roosevelt couldn’t do and all people can say is that raising $1.6 million in a quarter isn’t that impressive? So Sue Lowden takes in half-a-million dollars in a 12-person primary and all people can say is that she should have done better? And Danny Tarkanian raised somewhere north of $372,000 (his last-quarter figure) and he still is the Rodney Dangerfield of the race?

Such is life in the after-spin of the March 31 collection deadline for federal races — and here in Nevada the U.S. Senate race is the most closely watched contest in the country.

Reid’s folks were quick to defend the senator’s fundraising number after NBC’s Chuck Todd suggested it was not so impressive — indeed, it is hardly intimidating. So the Reidites sought to portray their man as too enmeshed in the health care reform debate to have any time to concentrate his usual fervor on raising money. So if he garners a lot more in the second quarter, we can assume he wasn’t paying as close attention to his job as majority leader?

Lowden’s take is noteworthy for two reasons. First, she pledged to match whatever she raised dollar for dollar, so that promise cost her a cool half-million. (“Sorry, Paul, I had no idea we’d raise that much. So we don’t vacation with the Weidners this year.”) Second, her campaign refused to release how much she spent — the reporting deadline is two weeks after the collection deadline. That leads me to believe her TV campaign and other costs probably ate up a significant chunk of the money she raised.

Team Tark’s coy response to my inquiry — we raised more than we did in the last quarter — means one of two things: One, they raised about the same amount. Or, two, they raised a lot more and want to make a big splash. I’m guessing it’s the former.

Here’s the bottom line: Come June 8, the GOP nominee will be broke and Reid will have millions on hand — maybe $10 million. And that money will be unleashed immediately on whoever the GOP nominee is as he or she searches for outside help to survive the Reid onslaught. It is going to be something to witness.

• Tick, tick, tick: I’m sure John Ensign thought 2009 was the worst year of his life — having to disclose an affair, watching the cuckolded husband go public with all manner of allegations, seeing two federal probes develop. It couldn’t be worse in 2010, right?

Wrong. Here’s what has happened in the past fortnight to the junior senator from Nevada:

Subpoenas have been issued for friends and former political associates of Ensign by the Justice Department and the Senate Ethics Committee. News reports have outlined how he set up meetings with Doug Hampton to try to get him jobs with companies he could help (or hurt) as a United States senator. Allegations of pay-to-play have surfaced, suggesting Ensign may have solicited campaign contributions for the GOP at the same time he was talking to the companies about Hampton or congressional business. And two former federal prosecutors have said the Justice Department has enough evidence to indict him, most recently on “Face to Face” on Thursday when Melanie Sloan of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington said so. Her words came on the same day CREW filed a complaint alleging the senator and the C Street playboys violated gift rules by getting cut rates for lodging at the Church of Good Times. Sloan agreed with respected former prosecutor Stan Hunterton, who also made the statements on you-know-where.

Ah for the halcyon days of 2009, eh, Senator?

Despite the circling vultures (hello, Dean Heller), it seems unlikely Ensign will resign and save his friends and associates lawyers’ fees and the government some money — the Senate can’t survive without him, you know. Most insiders think the only way Ensign won’t serve his term is if he is presented with a choice: Get indicted or get lost.

• The last time we met in Reno: The state GOP will return to the scene of the crime on May 15 to choose a new chairman. In the same city where Sue Lowden helped shut down the convention when she was state chairman, earning the enduring ire of the Ron Paulites, the Republicans will choose a successor to Chris Comfort.

So who will it be? The short answer: It doesn’t matter. The party can’t raise any money.

Better question: Can they make a bad situation worse?

Need I answer that one?