Colts’ victory made possible by two yards and a clouded decision

By Sal DeFilippo

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009 | noon

There are smart decisions in life, and there are, well, decisions that become almost instantly regrettable.

And occasionally, there are some decisions that appear to be one, but turn out to be the other. Marriage, for example.

But in football, there is no confusion. Smart decisions and regrettable ones usually result in wins and losses. Last weekend, we saw perhaps the most extreme examples of each.

The instantly regrettable decision came courtesy of Bill Belichick. His Patriots led Indianapolis by six points with two minutes to go, when on a fourth-and-2 play from the New England 28-yard line, Belichick did something 31 other NFL coaches – and millions of viewers – would not have: Eschewed the conventional punt, opting instead to try to convert the first down. The Patriots came up a half-yard short, leaving Peyton Manning and the Colts offense less than 30 yards from victory.

Belichick obviously thought the odds of his team making the first down, and sealing a victory in the process, were better than pinning Manning deep in his own territory and preventing him from scoring.

But even if the Patriots had made the first down, it’s still a bad decision. Sure, it’s possible that Manning would have led the Colts to a score anyway. It’s also possible that the Patriots just handed away a home playoff game or two.

On the other side of the coin, Maurice Jones-Drew -– and the Jaguars’ coaches, whom he credited afterward -– did one of the smartest things I’ve seen in a while on the field.

Jacksonville was trailing the Jets in the fourth quarter and driving toward a game-winning score with two minutes remaining. Jones-Drew was running toward the end zone unimpeded, about to score a touchdown, when he did the unthinkable – which was actually very well thought-out. He took a knee.

Just like a quarterback at the end of a game, he gave up the chance to score intentionally. Crazy? Nope – brilliant. If Jones-Drew had scored, the Jaguars would have attempted a two-point conversion and either led by five or seven points. But the Jets would have had the ball with nearly two minutes remaining, and a chance to tie or win the game.

Since New York was out of timeouts, however, Jones-Drew’s self-tackle – he apologized to fantasy football owners after the game for not scoring, by the way – allowed the Jags to bleed the remaining clock and kick a field goal to win the game. There is a small risk that Josh Scobee would have missed the kick, and the move would have backfired.

But it was essentially the same distance as an extra point, which carries about a 99 percent success rate.

Don’t know the exact numbers, but it’s much better than the odds of converting a fourth-and-2, anyway.

Sal’s picks: A rough 0-3 weekend puts the total for the year on the underside of .500 at 13-15-2. This week, I’ll take the Bengals -9½ at the Raiders; the Bears +3 vs. the Eagles and the Texans-Titans over 48.

****

The media/celebrity picks:

Lance Burton, Monte Carlo master magician (19-11)

Lions -3½ vs. Browns

Colts pick at Ravens

Texans -4½ vs. Titans

****

Anthony Crivello, star of "Phantom - Las Vegas Spectacular" (15-15)

Lions -3½ vs. Browns

Jaguars -8 ½ vs. Bills

Vikings -11 vs. Seahawks

****

Carrot Top, Luxor headliner (18-12)

Lions -3½ vs. Browns

Colts pick at Ravens

Chargers -3 at Broncos

****

Terry Fator, Mirage headliner (13-17)

Chargers -4 at Broncos

Vikings -11 vs. Seahawks

Steelers -10 at Chiefs

****

Oscar Goodman, mayor of Las Vegas (15-15)

Colts pick at Ravens

Chargers -3 at Broncos

Bengals -9½ at Raiders

****

Ryan Greene, Las Vegas Sun sports writer (13-16-1)

Lions -3½ vs. Browns

Chargers -3 at Broncos

Eagles -3 at Bears

****

Alicia Jacobs, KVBC entertainment reporter (17-13)

Colts pick at Ravens

Redskins +11 at Cowboys

49ers +6 ½ at Packers

****

Kevin Janison, KVBC meteorologist (12-18)

Lions -3 ½ vs. Browns

Redskins +11 at Cowboys

Falcons-Giants over 46

****

Christine Killimayer, Greenspun Interactive sports reporter (13-17)

Steelers -10 at Chiefs

Colts pick at Ravens

Bengals -9½ at Raiders

****

Wayne Newton, "Mr. Las Vegas" (15-14-1)

Redskins +11 at Cowboys

Packers -6 ½ vs. 49ers

Chiefs +10 vs. Steelers

****

Frank Caliendo’s Fantasy Studs of the Week

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati, and Calvin Johnson, Detroit

Last week's Raiders game was blacked out in Oakland. Not because of unsold tickets, though ... it was done as a public service. The Bengals have been run-oriented this year, but against the Silver and “Blech,” Carson Palmer goes muy loco throwing to Ochocinco and his teammates.

While many of this fall's top-grossing movies have been scary films like Paranormal Activity and Zombieland, this weekend will feature the most terrifying release of the year. It's called Browns versus Lions. There is one redeeming character in the story. His name is Calvin Johnson and he will have his best day of 2009.

Last week’s rating:

TOUCHDOWN. Ronnie Brown was injured (Madden-impersonator jinx?) in Miami’s win over Tampa Bay. Still, Brown rushed for 82 yards and a touchdown and caught a couple of passes for 16 yards. Matt Hasselbeck only completed half of his passes, but when you chuck the ball 52 times, some good is bound to come of it. Hasselback tallied 315 yards and a TD.